That darn Billie Sutton. South Dakota’s Democratic candidate for Governor is so nice and humble that he can’t even conduct a decent, nasty push poll the way some Noem-y caller did against him in June.
He may not need to. Team Sutton just released polling results showing him behind Republican Kristi Noem by four points on initial ask, then beating her by six points after voters hear “balanced profile information about both candidates.”
The margin of error on this 500-person poll is four percentage points. Translation: Contrary to Team Noem’s effort to laugh Democrats off for getting “excited about a poll that shows their candidate losing,” Sutton and Noem are tied, with a stronger chance of winning than losing among voters once they hear from the campaigns.
Sutton shares the “balanced profile information” poll respondents heard during the call:
Billie Sutton, a Democrat from Burke, is a State Senator, small-town banker, who also has a family cattle operation. He is a former pro rodeo rider, who was paralyzed from the waist down after a rodeo accident. In the Senate, Sutton has worked to root out corruption in Pierre and is running for Governor to end politics as usual and change the way we do business in Pierre, so everyone is represented—not just the special interests. That means bringing both parties
together and working across party lines to make healthcare more affordable, create more good-paying jobs, and improve public schools and job training to grow the economy.Kristi Noem, a Republican from Castlewood, is the current Congresswoman, a small business owner, and a lifelong farmer and rancher. In Congress, Noem has taken a no-nonsense conservative approach to problem solving, making every decision with South Dakota families in mind. In Congress, she’s fought wasteful government spending and voted to cut taxes on South Dakota families. As Governor, she will fight to create jobs, protect South Dakotans from tax increases and wasteful spending, tackle the special interest corruption, and strengthen education. She’ll also protect our right to own guns and stand up for her pro-life values [Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, poll summary, 2018.07.30].
There don’t appear to be any tricks in those profiles. Sutton opens with the Democratic label, mentions his superior personal story, and talks about his standard stump issues. He spots Noem some of the exaggerations she freely uses on the campaign trail—small business owner, lifelong farmer and rancher, no-nonsense—and even the supposedly ironcladding conservative hot buttons of guns and fetuses. The pollster call doesn’t mention Noem’s lies about her family’s estate tax, her family’s enormous farm welfare payoffs, her conflict of interest in promoting her husband’s gig selling federally subsidized crop insurance, or her general lack of achievement in Congress (though Sutton does fire the “do-nothing” shot on public radio).
The profiles are loaded, but only with the nicest things one can say about Sutton and Noem… and those nicest things provoke a ten-point flip in Sutton’s favor.
The release from Sutton doesn’t say anything about how Sutton’s doing among his Democratic base (we’re used to being taken for granted). But since the poll sample was 52% Republican, the pollsters make hay of Sutton’s ability to win a substantial chunk of Republicans, especially Jackley voters:
- Sutton wins a real share of registered Republicans (21%) and leads among unaffiliated voters by 19 points (54% Sutton / 35% Noem).
- Those who voted for Marty Jackley in the GOP primary are also driving Sutton’s ability to run well with Republicans. Fewer than half of Jackley primary voters are in the Noem column (31% Sutton / 49% Noem / 20% undecided) [ALG Research, 2018.07.30].
31% of Jackley primary voters equals just about 14,000 Republicans voting for Sutton. That’s less than a quarter of the votes Sutton needs to pull away from Noem and add to his column to close the yawning gap that Democrats suffered in the 2014 gubernatorial election.
The pollster is Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a D.C.-based firm with five other offices around the U.S. They’ve been polling mostly for Democrats and progressive issues since 1994. For Sutton, ALG Research has dug up numbers showing that if the race stayed positive, Sutton would beat Noem. But Sutton can’t coast on that assumption. We know Noem will counterpunch; Sutton has to keep attacking to protect the lead his superior story can win.
Is it negative campaigning to point out that Noem supports the Trump tariffs that have taken 20% off the value of my soybeans this summer? Those tariffs are a tax on my gross income rather than my net income.
Mr. Nemec, your 20% loss was a 20% gain for Putin’s Russia! Your higher prices for the fuel you are using on your farm, went directly into the pockets of Putin’s Russia. We all should not forget that we are now paying about $.70 per gallon of fuel higher than we were before the love affair between Comrades NOem, Thune, trump and the rest of the traitors showed it’s arse. Aluminum, check. Steel, check. All to benefit Putin on the backs of America’s citizens.
Yes. Sutton can “attack”, without being a turn-off to people. South Dakota nice, isn’t going to cut it. Sutton speaking the truth and calling out Ms Noem on many of her falsehoods and her standing by while South Dakotans are getting hurt by Trump’s policies is perfectly fine.
Bonus…..Trump called Noem South Dakota’s new governor last week. ha. Yeah, at one portion of his sentence, he probably was talking about the primary. But the opening of his statement about Noem? I don’t think so. This is the kind of stuff that athletes hang on the bulletin board in the locker rooms to help with motivation.
https://www.keloland.com/news/politics/pres-trump-declares-kristi-noem-south-dakota-governor-before-election/1323954687
Billie won’t need to attack. He will need to counterpunch. I would love to be in that political position, if I were him.
Has he run ANY ads yet?
I hope Sutton runs his full 2 minute intro video on TV. It’s one of the best I’ve ever seen. Powerful. I have no doubt it will move even more voters to his column.
I don’t watch a lot of TV, especially in the summer, so excuse my ignorance if that has already been the case.
Dana, from the linked article, Noem says of the President, “. . . he and I talk often . . .” I know Trump is popular in SD, but that relationship has to be a powder keg ready to blow at any time.
I saw that also, o. I agree with you completely.
He knows he can’t attack her because Republicans are dominant so he has to show why he is better. An actual quote from a national article “the camera loves me Noem.” Most people are more visual and emotional rather than objective. Sadly it’s that over substance the same thing Cory does here.
“the camera loves me Noem.”?? Not that it’s important but she’s lookin’ a bit haggard, lately. Dressing like she doesn’t want the job of representing the great state of South Dakota. (But there’s nothing wrong with that …)
Horsehockey, Hap. I campaign entirely on substance, on policy, and loathe emotion.
Dana, just wait until Trump notices that Noem isn’t Govenror yet and that she faces a challenger in a wheelchair. Watch Trump make fun of another man’s physical disability. At that moment, watch Noem lose ten more points.
Trump would totally go after Mr. Sutton’s disability. He’s more ableist than that new brewery bar in Brookings named “Wooden Legs”.
Good point, Cory. And he will, somehow and some way, he will.
Pierre needs a flushing out after 40 plus years of republican rule. Expecting a different (or new) result by recycling the same ideaology is not realistic. Mr. Sutton is a reasonable alternative to what we have experienced..ie EB5…MidCentral…and struggles with government transparency. Government represents the people…not the other way around. I believe Sutton is a breath of fresh air. This family is 1 registered republican…and 1 independent…both going Sutton in the hope that the SD swamp can be drained.
Where is Billie Sutton? You hear and see very little of him . He will have to be more visible and vocal to beat Noem. Like her or not Noem is a popular candidate.
I agree with Greg…I have not see any signs for Billie yet…I have seen many for Bjorkman and some for Seiler; many for Noem and Dusty, some for Ravnsborg and a few for the other Republican candidates, but none for any other Democrats…what gives?
If Trump shows up here to campaign for Noem and makes fun of Sutton’s disability that would backfire so bad in our State Noem would be finished. I’d think he’d know better then to go there. I think the courage and strength that Billie has shown after his accident is a big reason to vote for him. He could have given up after being dealt a blow like that, but instead finished his degree, has a job as an investment consultant, became a successful State legislator, and still rides a horse and helps on his family ranch. There are some good videos on YouTube that show what paralyzed people have to go through living day to day. Billie makes it look easy, but most of us would have a very tough time with it. I’ve seen him wheel his chair through parades and that man is in good shape!
You know darn well this is going to be the closest Governor’s race since the 1986 Mickelson/Herseth race. My concern with that is Noem will panic when she realizes that she’s not just going to automatically win and she’s going to get nasty. If you thought she did a character hack job on Jackley just wait until she sets her sites on Sutton. I think Billie will do just fine defending himself, but it’s going to get ugly. She feels it’s “her turn” and from what I’ve heard this is just a stepping stone of 8 years to get herself into either Thune’s or Round’s Senate seats. She’s a career DC politician and losing this race would be a huge setback in her goal of a 30+ year political career.
Sutton can win this, but it’s going to take all of us chipping in a little and also helping to spread his message.
Maybe Trump will come to campaign for Noem during soybean harvest. I am sure Sutton would appreciate that.
Heck yeah, Greg! I want a Trump visit here during during harvest. October 30. Bring it.