Doeden/Rhoden Runoff: Can Either Candidate Pull the Other’s Primary Supporters?

In my analysis of which way the supporters of Dusty Johnson and Jon Hansen might break in the gubernatorial runoff between Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden, I assumed that Doeden’s 30.6% and Rhoden’s 25.2% of the Republican electorate wouldn’t switch between now and the July 28 runoff election.

But anything is possible: what could make Doeden voters or Rhoden voters switch in the runoff?

Crapping all over Joe Barnett could certainly drive some of Doeden’s already not terribly numerous Aberdeen voters to vote for Rhoden in the runoff. But what about factors not related to unforced errors the runoff candidates might make? Is there anything in the change from primary to runoff, from a field of four to mano a mano, that could change votes from Doeden to Rhoden or Rhoden to Doeden?

The first challenge in converting an opponent’s primary voters is that the likely converts aren’t the passionate voters; they are the casual supporters. They are the Sioux Falls voters who were more interested in voting for Christine Erickson or Jamie Smith for mayor and figured they might as well vote for Governor while they were at it. They are the voters who had a neighbor in one of the 49 Republican Legislative primaries who didn’t want to leave a blank up-ballot. They are the voters who just wanted to make sure Dusty Johnson or Jon Hansen didn’t win. The potential converts are the voters who for whatever reason have less motivation to cast ballots in the runoff than they were in the primary. So practically, Rhoden and Doeden both may get a better return on their runoff campaign dollars from investing in getting their own June 2 voters to show up again on July 28 than in trying to pilfer each other’s base.

But there are pilfering possibilities. Among Doeden voters, Rhoden could find some Republicans who voted in mere protest: they didn’t think the rich loudmouth upstart from Aberdeen would actually win, so they felt they has some margin to throw him their vote to tell the GOP establishment to watch its step. Now having helped oopsie Doeden to a first-place primary finish, those protest voters will see Doeden’s lack of knowledge and governing skill cast in sharp relief by the laser-focused Rhoden campaign, and they’ll say, “O.K., enough screwing around, it’s time to vote a real Governor in the runoff.”

Rhoden could pick off some low-information Doeden primary voters who checked Toby just because they’d heard more bad stuff about the other guys. Rhoden can fix that. The primary showed negative campaigning works with this year’s GOP electorate; Rhoden and his friendly PACs can whale on Doeden while running lots of friendly videos of Larry welding and branding and holding Cabinet meetings (maybe all at the same time!) to educate those voters back to Rhoden’s side.

On the other side, Doeden could snag some fish out of the Rhoden pool. Some Rhoden voters may have liked Doeden’s fresh energy but picked stale but stable Rhoden in the primary because they didn’t think an upstart from Aberdeen stood a chance. Now that the primary showed Toby’s got electoral muscle, that subset of Rhoden voters may feel safer backing the more interesting option.

Electability in November may not be a major concern for Republican runoff voters; whoever wins the runoff will be the frontrunner over underdog Democratic candidate Dan Ahlers. But Doeden could argue loudly to Rhoden voters that South Dakota loves Trump more than life and a good farm economy itself, so they need to put the Trumpiest candidate in style and—well, I was going to say substance, but there is no substance to Trumpism, it’s all style—on the November ballot to keep the Trump base energized and overwhelm the sane, results-oriented middle that would pick Ahlers over Doeden.

At the same time, Rhoden could argue (quietly, carefully, because he needs the Trump base) that Doeden is too Trumpy, too polarizing, too likely to drive independents to vote for mild-mannered Ahlers. Or maybe Rhoden could persuade tactical Doeden voters that Doeden isn’t actually Trumpy enough: sure, Toby’s got mouth and money, but he doesn’t have the star power—decades of books, news articles, and TV shows—that built the rabid fanbase that elected Trump in 2016. Doeden is not South Dakota’s star businessman. He’s not Denny Sanford, or Mike Huether, or Pat Prostrollo, or DeLon Mork. And Trump isn’t on the ballot this year. Put all that together, and Doeden’s Trump power isn’t as strong as he wants runoff voters to think and isn’t strong enough to overpower the centrist desire for the good, simple, decent management that experienced public servant Dan Ahlers offers and to which Larry Rhoden can make the stronger pitch. That’s a tricky argument to make (although I just did it before breakfast, so come on, Larry!), but it is another way Rhoden could bring some Doeden voters out of protest mode and back to the practical business of maximizing their chance of winning in November.

But getting people to actively say, “I was wrong, I’m changing my mind” is harder than getting people to simply sit back in silence and not repeat their mistake. Turnout already naturally declines from primaries to runoffs, so why fight electoral momentum? Rhoden and Doeden could find it easier to use the above factors to simply depress each other’s return customers. Getting Doeden primary voters to sit out from the runoff is half as useful as getting those voters to get up again and switch to Rhoden, but it’s still progress toward a July 28 victory.