As early voting gets going in the Republican gubernatorial runoff, I look through the county-level primary results and see a problem for Larry Rhoden in his effort to flip the primary results and come out on top of Toby Doeden: a lack of primary popularity in the highest-turnout counties.
The ten counties that drew the most Republicans to the polls on June 2 were, in order from the top, Minnehaha, Pennington, Lincoln, Brown, Meade, Lawrence, Hughes, Brookings, Codington, and Yankton. Doeden placed first in five of those counties: Minnehaha, Pennington, Brown, Codington, and Yankton. Those counties represent an broad spread across the state, east, west, north, and south.
Rhoden placed first in three of those top-ten turnout counties: Meade, Lawrence, and Hughes. Rhoden’s geographical popularity was narrower, limited to his home county, a neighboring county, and the capital county where the Governor can tell state employees to turn out for him or else.
In the four-way primary, Rhoden placed last in four of those top-turnout counties. Doeden placed last in none of those ten counties. In Minnehaha County, Rhoden was a hard last at 18.0%, finishing more than ten percentage points behind Doeden. Rhoden had an even lower percentage tally, 17.6%, in Lincoln County, the third-highest turnout county. Doeden placed third in Lincoln at 25.8%. Rhoden finished under 25% in six of the ten top-turnout counties. Doeden beat 25% in nine of the ten top-turnout counties; he lagged dropped below that level only in Hughes County, where the state government labor force dared give the outsider only 17.5%.
Overall, while Rhoden finished second in the statewide primary, in the top-ten-turnout counties, he finished third behind Dusty Johnson.
Both runoff candidates have a lot of Johnson and Hansen voters to whom they may appeal in those counties and the rest of the state. But incumbent Rhoden will have work harder where the most voters are to pick off more of his former foes’ supporters and make up his distinct lack of popularity against newcomer Doeden.
I believe all those counties had local races to bring voters to the polls. Mayor race in Sioux Falls had to push voter turnout in Sioux Falls. Legislative races also where interesting in several of those counties.
My gut feeling is that rural voters will turn out in the biggest numbers (percentages).
Who doesn’t like used car salesmen? They do well all over.
I have a feeling that the Trump love that pushed Doeden to the plurality will carry him to a clean win.
I have no real logical prediction as to whom the displaced Hansen and Johnson voters will move to. My got says that experience is a liability, so many will vote for the clean slate.
Maybe poll registered voters who they prefer in a matchup with Dan Ahlers?