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South Dakota in Recession, Just Not as Deeply as U.S.

Wind turbines and federal checks have saved South Dakota’s economy from tanking and helped Governor Noem fabricate a mostly unearned budget surplus. But the Governor’s persistent claim that she’s overseeing a healthy economy is more desperate marketing pitch than sober economic analysis.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis posts this chart of real GDP quarterly growth rates in the Ninth District since 2015. In 14 of the last 23 quarters, South Dakota’s GDP has underperformed the national rate.

FRB-Minn Real GDP Growth Rates 2015-2020
Real GDP growth rates, Ninth District, 2015 Q1–2020 Q3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota, updated 2021.02.01, retrieved 2021.02.25.

South Dakota actually experienced a two-quarter recession in the second half of 2017. Our economy contracted during Noem’s first quarter as Governor in 2019 and lagged behind the national growth rate and Montana’s for the rest of the year. Our graph blipped above the rest of the region when the pandemic hit, not because we grew, but because we simply shrank less than  our neighbors and the national average. We held on to 1.7% GDP growth in Quarter 1 of 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, while the national average was 0.3%. In Q2, South Dakota’s economy shrank 7.1% while the nation took a 9.0% hit. In Q3, we sagged 1.5% compared to 2019 Q3, while the U.S. recession was 2.8%.

South Dakota’s economy is suffering from the pandemic recession just like pretty much everywhere else. But as usually happens with major economic trends, our remote, insulated, innovation-resistant economy doesn’t swing as hard down or up as the rest of the country.

7 Comments

  1. jerry 2021-02-25 10:02

    Very good reporting Cory. Our picture is not rosy here and won’t be for some time. We need innovation in our state and you note windmills, I would also note cannabis and it’s complete legalization to help us turn the corner.

  2. mike from iowa 2021-02-25 16:13

    Probably not the right place for this…

    Costco just raised its minimum wage to $16 per hour. Beating Amazon and some other big corporation.

  3. Caleb 2021-02-25 19:27

    Thinking of Noem describing the SD economy these last few years, I recall a post I recently read:

    “Disinformation has always been about getting elites to do things. That’s the point that so many who have looked at what percentage of ppl saw what on Facebook have missed. The public isn’t a target — it’s a vector (and it’s not the only vector).

    Hopefully, as we watch what’s going on today, people can see that now? We track spread, but the real measure is penetration into groups that either make decisions or exert broad public influence. Or exert influence over those with influence.

    Whether it’s our President who is talking about “shredded votes” in Fulton County, the politicians frightened of a small but heavily deluded set of future primary voters, or health care workers starting to plug into antivax networks due to COVID, that’s what to watch.

    And by that measure, I’m sorry to say, we’re looking increasingly f*cked.”

  4. John 2021-02-25 19:46

    In a classic case of being an out of touch, irrelevant BOOMER, Sen (Q-Moscow) Thune opposed the $15 minimum wage lamenting that as a kid he earned $6 and hour . . . showing his flat learning curve from his ‘SD bidniss’ degree’ . . . that is now nearly $24 due to inflation.
    https://www.newsweek.com/sen-john-thune-opposing-15-min-wage-says-he-earned-6-kidthats-24-inflation-1571915

    One has to rhetorically ask . . . did thune check with his staff, especially junior staff closest to the issue? or his kids? or his interns?

  5. Caleb 2021-02-25 22:08

    Hahahaha! I think he did not, John. My first job off the farm paid me $6/hr about 20 years ago. I’m no economist, highly educated citizen, or close to any position like Thune’s, and even I understand his argument as a total copout.

  6. jerry 2021-02-26 14:25

    We are poor here and getting poorer by the day. No matter what the regime in Pierre says, nothing says it better than a long line for food.

    “Locals were lining up by 6:15 a.m. Friday to receive a free box of food in the parking lot of Knecht Home Center.

    Volunteers were able to start distributing the 1,200 food boxes by 7:30 a.m. — an hour earlier than planned — and by about 11:15 a.m., all the boxes had been given away, Pastor Craig Moore of First Assembly of God said.

    The drive-through event was sponsored by Knecht, First Assembly of God church, City Serve and Farmers to Families, a USDA food box program.

    “It really was all ages (picking up food boxes). There were quite a few elderly people, there were people in their 20s, a lot of people with kids were coming through … all different walks of life. We had the opportunity to pray with people as they came through. You could tell there were people who were very touched by the fact we were giving food away,” Moore said.” Rapid City Journal 02.26.2021

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