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“Proud Regressive” Manhart Stokes Replacement Theory

Logan Manhart has plenty of problems. On Twitter, the recent Wisconsin immigrant who is illegally running for South Dakota Legislature brands himself a #Proudregressive:

Logan Manhart, Twitter profile, retrieved 2022.05.20.
Logan Manhart, Twitter profile, retrieved 2022.05.20.

Manhart demonstrates his regressivity by following incel-groomer Rollo Tomassi, who tells guys to preserve their masculine power by dating lots of women at once. (Evidently Manhart thought he could apply that same advice to states and residency.) Tomassi also says feminism has wrecked religion and modern marriage is a rip-off for men and takes offense at being told that men should act the right way and resist bullying, violence, and sexual harassment. Such, it seems, are the regressive views Manhart likes to read on Twitter.

Another sign of Manhart’s regressivity is his sly promotion of replacement theory, the dangerous lie that radicalized a man not much younger than Manhart to put on body armor and murder Americans in Buffalo because they weren’t white. On March 29, in response to a Twitter comment from Tomassi that the greatest problem facing society is “Below replacement level fertility rates,” Manhart tweeted with a right-wing hashtag that “South Dakota is the only state in the US that has above replacement fertility rates“:

Logan Manhart, tweet, 2022.03.29.
Logan Manhart, tweet, 2022.03.29.

Manhart’s assertion appears to be incorrect. According to the Census Bureau, 25 states and the District of Columbia “maintained higher levels of births than deaths, leading to population increase through natural change” in 2021. “Among the states with the largest increases were: Texas, California, Utah, New York and Georgia.” South Dakota also saw the second highest percentage increase in deaths from 2020 to 2021 (15.85%, second only to Utah’s 16.18%, and far ahead of the national increase of 11.82%), due largely to deaths from the insufficiently checked coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, South Dakota saw the second-largest percentage decrease in births (7.21%, behind Maine’s 7.52% decrease, and well below the national decrease of 4.43%). Our births still outpaced our deaths, but as a percentage of 2020 population, our natural population growth was still lower than that in nine other places—Utah, Alaska, Texas, District of Columbia, North Dakota, Idaho, California, Nebraska, and Colorado. Just as lefty places like D.C., California, and Colorado appear to be more fertile than Manhart’s vauntedly right-wing South Dakota, the ten states with greatest natural decreases (deaths outpacing births) include some right-leaning states like Alabama, West Virginia, and Florida.

So not only does Manhart’s assertion that South Dakota’s replacing its dead through procreation faster than any other state not square with the facts, but his tagging that comment “#leadright” seems as non-sequiturial as noting that I got cheap milk at Target this morning and hashtagging that statement “#SkolVikes!”

According to the CDC National Center for Health Statistics, South Dakota did lead the nation for fertility rates as measured by number of women aged 15(?!)–44 giving birth per 1,000 from 2014 through 2019, but in 2020, we dropped to second place behind North Dakota. South Dakota’s fertility rate has dropped from a high of 78.2 per 1,000 women in 2015 to 66.7 in 2020. A population can remain steady if it produces 2,100 births per 1,000 women over their lifetimes. Do some sloppy math: divide 2100 births by the 30 years in that childbearing span, and we can estimate that we need to see 70 births per 1,000 childbearing-age women each year. At no point in the CDC data posted was South Dakota the only state above 70 births per 1,000 women. So even if Manhart was thinking of those stats in his unsourced Tweet, he’s not very good at reading or updating his facts.

But back to the bigger point, the disturbing point of Manhart’s regressivism, his invocation of a now 4chan/Tucker Carlson-loaded term, replacement. Why does a Republican candidate for South Dakota Legislature bother mentioning replacement and fertility rates? Is he inviting a discussion of real policy changes that might be required to address the long-term social and economic impacts of demographic change, policies like “increasing educational opportunities for girls; increasing access to reproductive health services, including family planning; and reducing infant and child mortality“? Or is this right-wing Republican simply ringing Pavlov’s bell for his immigrant-fearing, sperm-panicking right-wing Republican base, who tend to get mad when someone attempts to discuss actual policy and facts?

Proud regressives don’t talk policy. They talk slogans to stir the id of their fearful followers. When Manhart Tweets about replacement, he means exactly what Tucker Carlson and the Buffalo murderer mean.


  1. Ryan 2022-05-20

    i would bet my shiny blue pickup truck that this fellow wears boxer shorts with holes in both the front and the back. just look at that smug, smarmy face.

  2. larry kurtz 2022-05-20

    Why anyone is surprised by this remains a mystery. Hate for hire is the Republican way

  3. All Mammal 2022-05-20

    I believe of those births, he is only counting the white ones. This sicko is frightening. The label: Incel ( involuntary celibacy) is horrifying. He is basically calling for all white men to run out and give all the 14 and above white women their child because it is their American right and duty. I say ol Sammy Colt meant for his product to be in the employ of every woman on the good earth. That might change some ish around. White or not, this is brain sickness and it is spreading. Absolutely petrifying.

  4. Donald Pay 2022-05-20

    Well, let’s distinguish between the whity righty “replacement theory” from “replacement rate” in population biology. They are not the same. It appears Manhart is concerned about replacement rate, which is a concern in some countries and states. Certainly China has been increasingly concerned about “replacement rate” to the extent that they have relaxed the one child policy. Even with that policy change, it turns out China’s families want to stay with a one or two child family size.

    This is fairly complictaed. The replacement rate could be increasing because of increasing unmarried teen births. Is that something to be touting? It could be because Sioux Falls draws in a lot of younger workers from other states. If these younger workers are ready to have families, that may skew the statistics. We know that fertility rates among black, hispanic and Indian women in South Dakota are higher than whites, though births from white women are about 70 some percent of births. Also, we know that the birth rate is declining in South Dakota, as Cory points out. The replacement rate also depends on the death rate, which may be higher because of bad health policies.

  5. Loren 2022-05-20

    SD doesn’t have enuf crazies? We have to import from Wisconsin, now?

  6. All Mammal 2022-05-20

    The ‘replacement theory’ is used to give white supremacists an outlet for their pent up incel-induced self-hatred. Because they feel they are being replaced by more worldly competition for the affections of the female persuasion, they have their mom finish microwaving their pizza rolls, and take to the internet to organize with fellow basement-dwelling haters. They are adamant about keeping the Smith and Anderson surnames more common than Rodriguez and Diaz. They do not want their white children to be outnumbered by equally American non-white boys and girls in school. Anything not anglican pisses them off because their heads are teeny tiny. The terrorists who mobbed Charlottesville screaming, “You will not replace us!” were concerned with the replacement theory. Not replacement rate.

    I can hear my dad’s voice reminding me, “Hate’s for the birds. If we’re here, we’re American.”

  7. P. Aitch 2022-05-20

    … 2043 ’nuff said

  8. Cory Allen Heidelberger Post author | 2022-05-20

    Donald, I agree that one can have a reasoned, useful conversation about fertility, population, and necessary policy response without invoking the racist conspiracy theory that Jews are deliberately trying import non-white immigrants to replace all the white Christians. But I want to know what conversation Manhart is inviting with his statement.

  9. larry kurtz 2022-05-21

    It’s important to remember theories are arguably provable while hypotheses are often mostly informed hunches so conspiracy theories are not theories at all — at best they’re conjecture and at worst they’re malicious prevarications.

  10. Janet Olson 2022-05-21

    The human brain isn’t completely developed until the age of 25 and it may take longer for the male frontal lobe to make intelligent decisions. But I doubt that Manhart’s aging will change his warped thinking. Reminds me of Tucker Carlson who’s older but more bizarre.

  11. David Newquist 2022-05-21

    I was a colleague of Manhart’s father who is a trumpet-playing professor at NSU. He is a competent musician, but is politically off-scale. Logan graduated from Aberdeen Central, spent a year at NSU, and transferred to University of Wisconsin–Eau Claire, where he claims to have earned a degree in leadership. I was not aware that leadership could be conferred by degree. His dad make a lot of discordant noise about liberal politics, but seemed to be in harmony with the political scientists at NSU, and contributed to the reputation of the college being a center for regressive indoctrination. Logan seems to have inherited his dad’s attitudes, which in concert with some like minded peers, have made NSU a good place for some prospective students to avoid. The regressive movement gives voice to stupidity and malice as traditions of white supremacy in America. Young Manhart’s verbal expressions on replacement define what it means to screw the pooch.

  12. Cory Allen Heidelberger Post author | 2022-05-22

    And shamefully, Manhart celebrates his stupidity and malice. Trump makes people think they can feel good about being bad.

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