I listened over my gnashing of salami and provolone to Lori Walsh, Seth Tupper, and Jon Hunter talk about the significance of Billie Sutton’s eagerness for and Kristi Noem’s duckiness from debates. They didn’t mention Libertarian candidate Kurt Evans, and then Jon Hunter said he thinks both candidates are thoughtful—
—Click! I don’t want baloney on my sandwich or my radio. I turn to the keyboard.
An oft-peddled fallacy in discussions of candidate debates is that it makes sense for the frontrunner to avoid debates. The commentariat assumes Republican Noem has the advantage in South Dakota and thus shrugs at her debate dodge: “Why should she take the chance?”
Check that thinking: what chance does the frontrunner take by debating her opponents? Is she not the frontrunner for a reason? Is she not the superior candidate? Would not a direct confrontation convince even more voters of the frontrunner’s merits?
I’m running for office. Conventional wisdom says I—Democrat, liberal, straight-talker, non-incumbent, less well-funded—suggests I’m not the frontrunner in my District 3 contest. I will appear at any debate or public forum that I can fit into my schedule, one-on-one with my tired, grouchy, incumbent opponent, because I firmly believe that any honest audience seeing the two of us, side by side, answering the same policy questions, engaging voters with their public concerns, will see that I am the better-informed, better spoken, more honest, more inclusive, less partisan and more public-minded candidate. My self-assessment of my skills does not vary with my poll numbers: whether I’m the underdog (which I’d always rather be) or the favorite, I must be confident that I offer the voters better policies and skills than my opponent.
At the bottom of any candidate’s resistance to debating is the belief that she would lose. A debate dodging frontrunner believes that her lead is based not on merit but on luck or image or some other magic that she must not squander because she cannot enhance it with her own debate skills.
Even if we accept the idea that even the best debaters have off days, that the strongest candidates can trip on certain questions or muff one key line that makes headlines, honest candidates would conclude that’s all the more reason to have more debates, not fewer. Agree to only two debates, and blowing one leaves you looking at least half-bad. Agree to ten debates, and if you really are a superior candidate, you’ll outshine your opponent seven, eight, or nine times out of ten. That’s the same reason the World Series is seven games.
Truly excellent candidates aren’t afraid to debate. Truly excellent candidates will rise to the occasion and win debates and voters in their public appearances. Truly excellent, confident candidates (and we want confidence in our leaders, right?) relish the opportunity to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with their opponents to demonstrate their superior qualifications for the job.
Kristi Noem probably hasn’t thought about that, Jon. She takes her advisors’ convention advice and ducks debates. But at the heart of her debate ducking, Kristi is saying, “Every time I stand next to Billie Sutton, I risk reminding people that’s he’s really the better candidate.”
How could she possibly “win” a debate with Sutton? That’s what she’s thinking.
She has no accomplishments except having been elected in a state full of fakey “Christians,” for whom “Republican” is a synonym for “Christian.”
She can’t win on rhetoric, or accomplishments, or character. She will lose votes every time she appears on a stage with Sutton.
Provolone is a great cheese. Provolone could out debate Kristi.
I think overall she lacks a heck of a lot more than self-confidence! Her track record in Congress has been a pablum of talking points put forward by her Republican leadership and Trumpish go-along instead of fulfilling her job representing South Dakotans. A ‘chair-filler’ in the House is all. To not debate at least 6 or 8 times is extreme cowardice. With her congress doing so dang little that it should be doing she surely can’t be too busy! Now we see Republican senators piling on to of Trump’s efforts to stop all investigation into his dealings of acquiring the presidency thru fraud and corruption and lowering themselves to his level of incompetency. She’s as indecisive as Trump (and tempestuous) over the Whitehouse flag when every other flag in the US was lowered to half-mast over McCain’s death..
Think about why she wouldn’t debate to satisfy you folks: If she debated all you would do is pick apart whatever she says and say nasty things about her. The lack of a debate anymore is really your fault. You have all become such harpies no one wants to even be near or exposed to your constant nasty attacks.
The truth is, what is the point of Noem debating at all? If she just continues on as she is now she is going to win. The debate has no return for her and all of your whining cry baby crap isn’t going to make her even consider it.
It is past time for such sensitive souls as wingnuts are turning out to be to put on their big boy pants and engage reality now and then.
The world is a nasty place and they can’t hide from it forever. Your fairy tale belief that wingnuts are the victims, OldSliver, is tiresome and childish. Grow the hell up!
There is no valid excuse for the Congresswoman to refuse to debate. Among the proposed meetings of the candidates was AgFest in Mitchell and this week at the State Fair. The South Dakota State Fair! Noem refused to appear at either event. In response, Sen Sutton released a 5-point plan to address the needs of SD agriculture – still (by far) the state’s number 1 industry. I once had some respect for our Congresswoman, but a candidate who cannot be bothered to participate in an honest exchange of viewpoints and apparently spends her time groveling for more campaign cash deserves no respect and no support. As someone once tweeted, “Sad.”
OldSarge is absolutely right. There is no upside to debating for Congresswoman Nome. If the goal is to be elected, then the only, ONLY strategy that makes sense is to stay focused on that goal.
That is an indictment of the voters more than of the candidate.
Candidate debates are good, but the way they are structured usually isn’t that conducive to getting to the heart of issues. I think you would need twenty hours of good debating to get around to most of the issues of prime importance to a legislative race. Education could take 5 of those hours by itself.
Noem would probably do well in the kind of debates that normally happen. These usually require short answers drawn from talking points, all of which Noem seems to be pretty good at. It’s the in-depth stuff where she would falter, but there isn’t ever much of that in these sorts of debates.
Here’s something to consider, Cory, and I’d like your ideas on this. My daughter, who debated in high school debate in South Dakota, talked about how female debaters seemed to be at a disadvantage in policy debate because the males seemed to strike a more authoritative, aggressive pose. If the debate was even, it would always go to the males. There is an interesting article in The Atlantic about female attorneys being treated differently by male judges. My daughter thought there was some of that in SD debate. Any comments?
OldSarg, your attempt at rebuttal fails on three counts.
(1) Billie Sutton refutes it with his willingness to debate. Democrats face far more and far harsher criticism and nitpicking in this state than Republicans, yet Sutton is willing to brave such scrutiny in ten debates.
(2) Politics requires the courage to face the public and its criticism. Ducking debates further indicts the candidate’s ability to do the job.
(3) The nitpickers will always be with us, but they (we! the bloggisariat!) are a minority. The vast majority of debate listeners are just regular folks, not looking to write a blog post or compose a negative campaign ad or nasty letter to the editor. The vast majority just want to know who’s running, what they stand for, and how they want to vote. A candidate of merit should be able to emerge from any fair debate with more supporters from among those regular folks.
So really, OS, you’ve mostly supported my original thesis.
You keep forgetting, OS, this blog isn’t about me or the minority of South Dakotans who read it or the handful of people whom you think it is so important to cut down. This blog is about understanding politics in general in South Dakota and establishing principles, facts, and policy priorities that can help us all enjoy a better democracy.
But run for office against me sometime, OS. Come debate me on the same stage, in public, in person. I’m confident my commitment to facts, principles, and logic will win me more voters than you commitment to anger and personal attacks.
Donald, you bring up a good point. In principle, debates are good, and candidates should do them as often as possible. But some debate formats are better than others. It’s hard to pack all the policy discourse voters need into one 90-minute TV program.
First, that’s all the more reason to have more debates, and to have some coordination among the hosts of those debates to minimize overlap in topics and to broadcast, rebroadcast, and podcast all of those debates.
Second, having a series of debates, each dedicated to different topics, would help pull the candidates away from their canned, focus-grouped talking points and force them address more issues out of their comfort zone.
Now, as for the female/male debate disadvantage, well, there could be some merit to the point. I admit, I haven’t checked my ballot history to see if I favor guys or gals in debates. I can say I’ve seen a number of young women in HS debate match their male counterparts in aggression and authority. I’ve also seen female coaches guide young debaters to success. That’s only weak anecdote, with no rigorous analysis, and I know that specific instances I can cite of female success in HS debate do not disprove the hypothesis you and your daughter offer.
I wonder: are there debate/forum formats that would favor less aggressive candidates or candidates with more “feminine” qualities? Is there any format in which gender would provide no advantage?
Curious: who comes across as more aggressive and authoritative in public appearances, Billie Sutton or Kristi Noem?
“A democracy, in effect, is nothing more than an aristocracy of orators, interrupted sometimes with the temporary monarchy of one orator.”
I’ve long wondered that perhaps the skillset for getting elected as a politician in America isn’t the same skillset required to be a good politician in America. You do one job to get a totally different job. And it’s unlikely that the thing one perfects to appeal to voters and become President is the thing that runs the executive branch of a federal government exceptionally well.
I guess what I’m saying is that doing well in a debate takes a certain skill… and the candidate would be judged on that performance. But the better governor could be the person who’s not the better debater, the mild mannered, funny-voiced nerd who shies away from slogans and generalizations, yet has a talent for understanding all sides and creating wise policy that is equitable for all concerned.
Kind regards,
David
Cory it doesn’t matter. Noem knows if she debates it exposes her to being attacked. If she doesn’t debate she wins.
Debates are no longer an exchange of viewpoints. It has simply become a place where candidates state their opinion and then they are torn apart when members of the media twist their words apart.
“Come debate me on the same stage, in public, in person.”~Cory. Why would anyone want to debate you when you own the “after the show” microphone. When you censured my post yesterday you demonstrated that to everyone on here. It’s ok though. People make mistakes. I suspect you copied my post before deleting it knowing it was a mistake and you will repost it later on. What surprised me was you even posted you were censuring me. I did think that was very honest of you so thanks for being honest. No, not a debate when when you are out here west river let me know and we can sit down her a beer, coffee or Manhattan, rub elbows and laugh about all of this silliness.
OS, it does matter. Debate exposes each side equally to attacks. Noem’s failure to debate shows weakness, lack of confidence, and less suitability for public office.
I don’t own the after-show microphone. Any one I debate has as much ability to post online. The point of public debates is to create more situations where the candidates aren’t hiding behind their own insulated talking points and ad campaigns.
Your suspicions are baseless fantasy, wishful thinking for a debate you can win instead of the debate we’re having here that you are losing.
David, your point has general merit and fits with what Donald is saying: sometimes the superior point is drowned out by rhetorical fireworks. But in the specific comparison of Sutton and Noem, I’d suggest Sutton is closer than Noem to the “mild mannered, funny-voiced nerd who shies away from slogans and generalizations, yet has a talent for understanding all sides and creating wise policy that is equitable for all concerned,” yet Sutton is willing to compete in the debate realm as well.
“Your suspicions are baseless fantasy” you posted that you censured my post.
There is no argument after censuring me and that is my point. You have that control. You can use it for good or use it for bad. It is your power over others that should be wisely used. When you censured me you told me that no debate would be fair when you control the existence of opinions. Let’s imagine if we did actually have a debate: We’d sit in a venue, probably a local brew place, and field questions ad express our opinions. Afterwards you’d write and article and any response made after that you could change or delete and based upon you actions yesterday you may very well do that if you didn’t agree with my narrative of the events. I’m sure you meant well but it sets a standard and an expectation.
OS,
He has done it to me also.
‘Censor’ is different than ‘censure’. You should look it up.
You’re right Curt. I guess I wasn’t thinking when I posted the word. I should have said Cory “censored” my post.
Does that make your understanding of my post easier?
How do you protect yourself from debate during a campaign? Disparage the press. Refuse to debate. Use political cronies to put up softball questions your lawyers and your GOP handlers answer for you in writing. Avoid spontaneous “cross examination” of live public debate. Attend basketball games.Obstruct voting rights. Thune, Noem & Rounds occupy their public seats ONLY to monopolize power for GOP representing 1% wealth and class. I can’t imagine this approach working out for anyone but Republicans.And can you imagine being scared sheitless of your fascist president who daily, completely debases the office and humanity in general?
What should debates be about? The climate change of global warming.
Cory writes:
They didn’t mention me, but you did. Thanks, Cory.
This is the link to the Dakotafest forum on Vimeo:
https://vimeo.com/286336441
If anyone maybe doesn’t like me and wants to see me WAY out of my comfort zone, there are several moments there you might really enjoy. :-)
Although I think noem is an idiot and should go back to the family farm and lie about her dead dad some more, if anybody on her campaign encouraged her to participate in debates they would be fired.
Her goal is not to educate the public. Her goal is not to consider other peoples’ opinions. Her goal is not to change democrats into republicans. Her goal is not to discuss policy issues and make our state better. Her goal is to win the election.
I repeat: her goal is to win the election. If you honestly think that noem debating her opponents increases her likelihood of winning the election, raise your hand so you can be properly abused, you idiot.
Hoping a politician does something in the best interest of the people, to their own detriment, is as dumb as a voter can be. Don’t be dumb. Expect greedy idiots to be greedy idiots and then you won’t be surprised as often.
Don’t just vote party label – vote competence! (and if you are a democrat who is about to say all democrats or competent and all other parties are incompetent, raise you hand for your abuse, you idiot.)
Ryan~ “I think noem is an idiot” yet she has achieved so much more than you and still an idiot? If her being an “idiot” and having done so much more than you qualifies her as an “idiot” then what are you? What is less than an “idiot” Ryan?
Sarg, feel free to defend an idiot, but don’t become one. You know idiocy and success can occur together. I could name a hundred successful idiots.
I’m of pretty average intelligence. My successes or failures are based on my actions much more than my brainpower and you know it. I’m mostly just lazy, but have achieved everything I have attempted as an adult. I have no interest in achieving political power. Idiots like noem take action to achieve goals, but that does not qualify them to necessarily be governor.
Speaking of right wing idiots, Drumpf rattled off a litany of insults about Canadians and Canada today and then claimed they were off the record when they became public and sabotaged trade talks between the two countries.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/trade-talks-canada-collapse-off-record-trump-insults-leaked-report/
Drumpf says Bloomberg leaked them. Other sources say the Kremlin Annex was the leaker.
Drumpf is all yers, OldSaskatoon.
Ryan, I just think the rhetoric and insults needs toned down a bit.
Ryan, I agree that no professional campaign advisor would tell Noem to debate. My point here is that we need to stop excusing that professional, opportunist, selfish advice. We need to call it out for what it is: an admission that the candidate, if exposed to public questions, will lose more votes than she wins, and that the candidate lacks confidence in her own ability to persuade more people than an opponent can in a face-to-face confrontation.
Yes, Noem is ducking debates in order to protect her chances of winning. She should be ashamed of that behavior and we should shame her for it… and vote for the other guy.
Satire is when OldSarg says, “Ryan, I just think the rhetoric and insults needs toned down a bit.”
“Cory Allen” I too appreciate a good debate and I don’t like it when one party does not participate but as you know the ramifications of losing a single seat to the democrat/socialist party is too detrimental to the future of our home. Neither you are our Nation can afford that risk. Our free voice, our liberty, our culture are too much to lose. Simply look at those who follow you. Many are dangerous and would just as soon hang you as me given the opportunity. I think you have many talents and can be very well spoken but you have made the decision to dance with the devil for your advantage.
As one famous man said “When you sell your to soul to the devil your blues guitar may sound good but your soul is lost forever. . “.
Cory,
Agreed 100%. Times like these are the only times I wished I had an internet presence, so I could make the whole state see her fear and lack of qualifications.
O.A.W.M.’s like Ol Tex have trouble processing the truth that they’re just another minority, now. They wander through blog space, talking to no one in particular, about how good it was when white supremacy was the law of the land. It’s over Paco. Your people don’t have the numbers anymore. Your free voice. Your liberty. Your culture are just dust in the wind. Even young military veterans think you’re foolish. Older Angry White Males are just another subculture along with African Americans, Indians, Latinos, Seniors, Disabled, the poor etc. The difference is you haven’t realized your place, yet. You have no power and you think you still do. SAD
Wait porter, aren’t you among the crowd on here always talking about white male privilege? Which is it, old white men run the country or have no power right along with the other “subcultures”?
Ryan Kelly … You forgot ANGRY. Older angry white males are powerless. We other minorities have learned how to work the system by grouping up. We’re called liberals and we have enormous power.
Sorry Portly. We have no fear of you or your ilk. We have the smarts,, money, control, training and weapons. The threats, anger and pettiness do not worry us. Those that have aligned with your ilk are the cowards of this Nation. They are the follows wearing pink pussy hats, black face masks and condemning the government while as the same time begging for their financial slavery.
No my friend, I will live as a free man and with free thought until my day comes. There are many more of us than you can even imagine and each of us have served and continue to serve for we took an oath. I smile now when I quote this thinking of the words you will read, and in your heart, you will know you have turned your back on freedom ““The idea of full dress for preparation for a battle comes not from a belief that it will add to the fighting ability. The preparation is for death, in case that should be the result of conflict. Every Indian wants to look his best when he goes to meet the great Spirit, so the dressing up is done whether in imminent danger is an oncoming battle or a sickness or injury at times of peace.” -Wooden Leg Cheyenne
See, we are alike but not alike. You respect me because you know I am right. I respect you because you will stand against me but even you cannot stand for long against the weight of a man’s liberty for I and those that stand ahead, with and behind me are all so armed with free thought you cannot suppress.
“When it comes time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song, and die like a hero going home.” – Chief Aupumut Mohican.
We don’t want to be feared. We’ll lead you around by the ring in your nose and tell you how it’s gonna to be. Older Angry White Males don’t elect presidents … without the Russians, anyway. Women elect presidents. 60% of America hates Trump and the majority of Americans want him impeached. Read ’em and weep, Ol’ Texican.
Ok porter, women and liberals run your imaginary world. Check out the real world sometime, it needs work but at least it’s not made up in your head.
Ryan, buddy … The government (not the world) is controlled by the majority. The majority is no longer Older Angry White Males. Change is hard. It’ll take a while for you to adjust to being a minority.
“can’t afford the risk…” of what, OS? Do you really believe that the honest American values that you think Kristi represents would feel to sell themselves in a debate against the rank tyrannical socialism that you think Billie represents? (I know, my question sounds absurd, but I’m just trying to move around in Alex-Jones-extremist-fantasy dilemma that OS concocts to excuse Kristi’s duck.) Do you really believe that honest American values are so weak that they won’t withstand debate? Or do you just concede the point that Kristi tacitly admits, that she’s not intellectually or rhetorically capable of defending those easily defensible values in an open public debate against an opponent?
Cory,
1) Do you really believe that the honest American values that you think Kristi represents would feel to sell themselves in a debate against the rank tyrannical socialism that you think Billie represents?
Answer: Look how how much the democrat party has changed in the last 3 years alone. BLM, tearing down statues, pulling “Little House on the Prairie” off the shelves, labeling everyone else a racist, antifa, black masks, pussy hats, no God, killing the unborn and the list just goes on and on. This is what puts us, as a Nation, at risk. You may be the most level headed man running for office in the state but when you identify as a democrat this is the actual badge you wear and it is a radical badge that puts you in Sutton in too much of a minority to control this radical agenda. I don’t want to live in a country to tears down or uses cannons to blow up statues and neither do the majority of Americans et this is who you are identifying with. This isn’t so much about Kristi or Sutton for me. It is about civil society.
2) Do you really believe that honest American values are so weak that they won’t withstand debate?
Answer: There is no debate when we are shouted down, books burned and statues torn down by mobs. That is not debate. That is anarchy. That is who you are aligned with. That’s just a fact. My job is to prevent the degradation of the civil society.
3) Or do you just concede the point that Kristi tacitly admits, that she’s not intellectually or rhetorically capable of defending those easily defensible values in an open public debate against an opponent?
Answer: Once again, it doesn’t matter. It is about “risk”. If she debates she opens herself to criticism she is not able to respond to on sites like this. If she doesn’t debate, less risk, solid election win.
One last time: I would vote for Sutton if he was running as a republican. I can’t vote for Sutton running as a democrat because of the attached cultural illness.
OS isn’t even arguing the kind of debates that Noem is skipping. DakotaFest and the State Fair debates have never been the kind of anarchic melee that OS fantasizes. They have all been civil public events. Noem is skipping them because she believes that every time she stands on a stage next to Billie Sutton, more viewers will say, “Gee, Sutton really is the better candidate.” That’s what this critique is about.
If the concern were really that Noem would open herself to criticism in forums that she can’t control, well, she wouldn’t make any statement at all, would she? She opens herself to criticism on Dakota Free Press when she makes a public speech; therefore, she should not make a public speech. She opens herself to criticism on Dakota Free Press when she posts a video of herself faking farming in new Carharrts; therefore, Kristi should not post such videos. She opens herself to criticism on Dakota Free Press when she holds a $5K/pic fundraiser with Donald Trump; therefore, she should not appear with Donald Trump.
See where your logic leads, OS? Nowhere.
Skipping debates admits a profound lack of confidence in one’s abilities, policies, and values.
“OS isn’t even arguing the kind of debates that Noem is skipping”
Cory I only respectfully answered your questions but look what you did again “DakotaFest and the State Fair debates have never been the kind of anarchic melee that OS fantasizes.” yet that is exactly what you did earlier when you called me a myriad of nasty names and said even nastier things about me as if I had said those things. Look back to what you said about me and I’m not running for office: *first-class asses like OldSarg. Like OS say, “You’re not from South Dakota! F-U!” So, culturally, OS, be part of the solution and shut your hateful mouth. If you would do that to me what makes anyone think you will not do the same to Noem? I’m confused why you would even claim to treat anyone else fairly. . .
May the court remind the witness he is not the victim here, ever.
Mike, put you finger back in your nose. Your eyes are sinking back into your head.
Again, OS ignores my point and thinks he’s won by making the debate about himself instead of about the public figures seeking elected office.
Debates are non-unique in exposing candidates to public criticism. Simply declaring one’s candidacy subjects one to public criticism. By OS’s logic, no one should declare candidacy. Instead we should have secret drawings of straws with no public notice to spare climbers like Kristi the burden of open analysis and critique.