Removing Rep. Steven Haugaard before he’s promoted from Pro Tempore to Speaker will be more easily said than done. According to this morning’s voter registration totals (yes, Secretary Krebs’s legislative district maps update live throughout the day!), Haugaard’s District 10 has 1,808 more Republicans than Democrats. That’s an 11.38 percentage-point advantage for Haugaard and whichever Republicans run with him for reëlection in 2018.
Believe it or not, those numbers show that District 10 could be an easier fight that the average county in South Dakota. Statewide, the average Democratic disadvantage against Republicans per district is 2,434 voters, or 16.07% of the electorate. The difference lies mostly in unusually low Republican registration in District 10 (42.21% versus the statewide GOP 46.37% share of the electorate) and higher-than-average independent registration (26.50% in District 10 versus 22.78% statewide).
You can review this morning’s numbers by district in this spreadsheet. Here are some highlights:
- Average number of Republicans per district: 7,024.
- Average number of Democrats per district: 4,589.
- Average number of independents per district: 3,450.
- Five districts have more than 9,000 Republicans: 19, 33, 24, 23, and, at the top, District 30, with 10,344 Republicans.
- The five biggest Democratic districts only break 5,500: 14, 8, 26, 1, and, at the top, District 27, with 7,139 Democrats.
- Democrats outnumber Republicans in just four full districts: 1, 15, 26, and 27.
- Democrats’ best margin is in 27 (Pine Ridge), where we enjoy a 28.72 percentage-point cushion over the Republicans… but somehow, we’ve let Republicans with both of 27’s House seats.
- Republicans have better margins than our District 27 best in six districts: 19, 31, 29, 30, 23, and 24 (that’s Pierre, where the GOP dominates registration by 41.58 percentage points.
- Republicans make up majorities in nine districts: 2, 21, 34, 31, 19, 30, 29, 24, and 23.
- Democrats make up the majority in one district, 27. They are close in District 26 (Lyman, Jones, Buffalo, Brule, Mellette, and Todd) at 49.50%.
- The most independent district is 15, central Sioux Falls, where 33.82% of voters register I. Three other districts—35, 9, and 7—have indy registration that rounds up by decimals to 30%.
- The toughest district by percentage GOP margin where Democrats hold seats is 21, where Senator Billie Sutton and Rep. Julie Bartling persist amidst a 16.03 percentage-point (2,131 voter) Dem disadvantage.
- The toughest district by raw number GOP margin where a Democrat holds a seat is 25, where Rep. Dan Ahlers faces a 2,584 voter (15.46 percentage-point) Dem disadvantage.
If Democrats wanted to pour on resources to register and get out the voters, where might they get the most bang for their buck?
- District 27: There are already 3,773 more Democrats than Republicans. Get all of those Pine Ridge allies out to vote, and we win back two House seats.
- District 26B: That House half-district, which includes Chamberlain and their neighbors on Crow Creek and Lower Brule, has just 415 fewer Dems (5.96%) than Republicans. Get a charismatic local Democrat to drive some reservation turnout, and another House seat is in our reach.
- Districts 1 and 15 already have full complements of Democrat legislators. The next seven best districts for Democrats—9, 17, 7, 3, 28, 18, and 22—need 9,166 more voters to register Dem to tie their Republican neighbors. Bring out those voters plus one in each of those seven districts, and Dems can take another six Senate seats and eleven House seats.
- Make that push in those eight and a half districts, don’t lose elsewhere, and Dems would have 12 Senate seats and 24 House seats, exactly the one-third vote in each chamber necessary to block GOP procedural tricks, emergency clauses, and the budget and support vetoes from Governor Billie Sutton.
- (The next two “easiest” districts are 8 and 10. Drive 1,712 more Flandreau, Madison, Howard, and Woonsocket voters and 1,808 more eastern Sioux Falls voters to go Democrat, and we have a shot at two more Senate seats and four more House seats, including Haugaard’s.)
Don’t pretend achieving that magic 12/24 would be easy. If it were, we’d have already done it. But that’s the math Democrats need to do to get to the first level of meaningful Legislative power.
Excellent breakdown Cory Thanks Please re-post the numbers when the election season warms up.
It’s really sad how marginalized the Democratic party is in this state, but thank you for the interesting factoids.
Mark, I’ll definitely return to that page for updates and report any interesting trends.
Timoteo, I love these kinds of factoids, even when they aren’t optimistic for my party. Numbers and maps—who could ask for more fun? :-)
But Mr. H, the Democrats can also always count in the votes of Mr. Nelson and his squad of Democrat sympathizers to bolster your numbers.
Isn’t rather racist to say “Get all of those Pine Ridge allies out to vote, Get a charismatic local Democrat to drive some reservation turnout”?
Get them “OUT”, “DRIVE” some reservation turnout. . . You need to check you democrat privilege. You don’t own the Native people of this state. They are not your minions. They have a right to free thought and can vote for whoever they want without you “DRIVING” them. This is how the “Trail of Tears” took place. Democrat President Jackson and the White power brokers DROVE the Natives, killing thousands along the way just so those democrats could take the people’s land. It appears you would do the same thing to get what you want. . .
OldSarg, We’ve seen you write some pretty crazy stuff on here, but this latest post takes the cake. Comparing get out the vote efforts on the reservation to the Trail of Tears has to be the single greatest distortion in the history of this blog.
Grudz, I invite the Nelson wing to join me in fighting to uproot the corrupt, opportunists’ regime in Pierre. Both his wing and my wing would benefit, as would, more importantly, the entire state of South Dakota.
Keep digging for distractions, OldSarg. My point is about the numbers and where Democratic victories would be easiest to obtain. You can’t refute my factual analysis, so you go back to your barroom pettiness. You don’t even believe the things you say; you just want a fuss. How boring and useless your comments are.
You’ve totally ignored the most important components- 1) message I have lived here for over 10 years and have yet to hear one from the Dems. 2) Dems had better learn how to reframe the BS parts.
Robin, I haven’t ignored that part. I’ve been offering headlines, evidence, and analysis to support Democratic message in over a decade of blogging. This post is just about some cold, hard numbers that suggest where we could focus our efforts and pound away with whatever message the party may settle upon.
Ok well then looks like third party is well set to push the Dems out by 2020 then.
Please explain, Robin, how you reach your conclusion from any of the statements I have made here. I agree that a messageless party leaves itself open to a third-party challenge, but I am not aware of any credible third-party organization effort, are you, Robin?