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Foreign Markets Outperform “Trump Bump” While Dollar Sinks

Donald Trump has been claiming credit for the rise of the stock market since before the Inauguration. Under Obama, Trump thought the rising market was just an artificial bubble, and it’s hard to point to any substantive policy he’s enacted that has significantly bent the already happy corporate profit curve further skyward.

But for fun, let’s assume the “Trump Bump” exists. Zoom out, and the 27% rise of the Dow and the 18% rise of the S&P 500 in the year following Trump’s election underperform some foreign markets over the same period:

America’s corporate tax rate shouldn‘t, in theory, have any bearing on the way investors view the prospects for companies elsewhere – like, say, in Italy. Yet the FTSE MIB index of that nation’s 40 most-traded companies has done nearly twice as well as the S&P since Trump was elected. A healthy American economy helps transatlantic enterprises like Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, but the Italian rally is really more indicative of that country’s recovery along with the rebounding European region.

That also explains the 34 percent rise in Germany’s DAX 30 index. And the French equivalent, the CAC 40, surged by 29 percent by the end of November, pretty much in line with the EURO STOXX 50. Even the broader STOXX Europe 600 index nudged its American counterpart aside by a percentage point since Trump won, and even more so since he was inaugurated and officially began making – or in his case mostly unwinding – policy in January [Rob Cox, “Trump Bump Aside, U.S. Stocks Lag in 2017,” Reuters, 2017.11.30].

Cox notes that the markets in Hong Kong and India, as well as copper and oil prices, have outperformed the U.S. markets.

And the United States dollar, that almighty measure of American strength, has declined over the past year against the pound, the euro, the rupee, the loonie, the yuan, and even the ruble.

The U.S. stock market is probably rising due to factors outside Donald Trump’s control. But if Trumpists want to credit their guy for America’s stock gains, they need to explain why Trump isn’t able to make the American market grow as fast as some foreign markets who are burdened with all their dirty socialism and refugees and other yucky things that should be holding them back.


  1. OldSarg 2017-12-04

    Seriously Cory, you repost Reuters without even knowing the financial success of the writer of this article? Do you have any idea how much larger the US markets are than the DAX, CAC, STOXX and FTSE are “combined” compared the the US markets? Do you even have an inkling of the difference between performance and “value”? This is what I love about people that “think” they know anything about stocks, trades, corporations or business in general. You are, almost to a person, qualified fools. Do you not “think” Trumps has no effect on the world markets? Do you not understand the optimism those who are willing to risk their hard earned money around the world in growing business, manufacturing, building wealth, building homes, creating jobs and even providing the tax dollars ilk like yourself suck out of our pockets? Without a doubt your understanding of what puts the food on your plate is beyond your understanding. Cox is no more than journalism major. Not a business person. Not a business owner. Not a business analyst. Just a journalist. . . A fool with a bachelors degree in journalism and you use it as a weapons. . . You’re shooting blanks at a wolf.

  2. jerry 2017-12-04

    Duly noted analysis. The only thing that has made this market rise has been the cut cut cut tax bill and the lead up to it. Prior to that, we have been living the dream of President Obama’s vision (Damn, I miss that leadership and democracy, sigh). Business cannot rise to that as any businessperson knows, it takes some years to build the building to train and to even purchase the outlay needed for expansion. One thing a real businessperson knows is that what is given can be taken back at the pull of a lever in the voting booth as we are seeing with the ACA. BTW, to prove my point, the market dropped over 300 points on the Flynn felony charge. A solid market would not be so volatile on non market related news.

    The market today is just horse trading between big funds that inflate the market to the point that it seems just like the heady days of 1929. Oh wait, they are a mirror, a suckers bet. The only difference this time is that the world markets are not so inclined to be fooled again by the Wall Street of 1929 nor the Wall Street of 2006-2008. How much is that apple Mister?

  3. Darin Larson 2017-12-04

    You tell’em OldSarg, Trump must be a financial wizard to be able to point out how well the stock market was doing under Obama and explain how that was bad and now how well the stock market is doing under Trump and that is good. I like how Trump explains the stock market to me in easy to understand terms like good and bad.

    I confess that I was so confused when the stock market went up 235% under Obama, but Trump explained that was a bad thing. Now something has changed and the stock market going up is no longer a bad thing as Trump has explained. Obama was president during “one of the great bull runs in stock market history” (per Forbes) but I have to believe that would not have happened without Trump.

    I also like how well OldSarg explains that all of us, and especially journalists, are just fools. I, for one, failed to understand that just because investors in foreign markets have earned a better rate of return than investors in US markets does not mean that those foreign investors have done better than American investors. I mean the stock market is not all about money; OldSarg knows it is about making America great again. And we can’t make America great again if people are investing in them foreigners.

  4. OldSarg 2017-12-04

    Dear Stupid Darin: It has nothing to do with Trump being a market wizard. It has to do with empowering the people to control their own money.

    “I, for one, failed to understand”~ Darin. That is a correct statement. This is not about simple returns but the “amount of increase. I can do the math for you: My stock is worth $1.00. It increases in value to $1.15. That is a 15% increase. You have a stock worth $2.00. It increases in value by 15% as well. That would mean you now have $2.30. You have more money than me but we had the same rate of return. Okay, in this math problem I have a stock worth $1.00. It increased in value by 20%! Great return!!! It is worth $1.20. You have a stock worth $2.00. It only increased by 15%. Oh! That must be bad! My return was greater than yours! You should be mad. You should run around and protest that your stock is only worth $2.30 and mine is worth $1.20!

    Now, if that math is too difficult for you I can’t help you and you should ask Cory to explain “market capitalization”. But that involves multiplication and it is probably beyond this blog’s ability.

  5. jerry 2017-12-04

    I think someone is into penny stocks and is doing day trading. After reading the last post, I am pretty sure of it. Some business model.

  6. Darin Larson 2017-12-04

    Interesting math exercise, OldSarg. Now to continue your example of the stock worth $1.00 a share and the stock worth $2.00 a share. You seem to like the $2.00 a share stock that increased at 15% year over year. Now I like the $1.00 stock which increased at 20% year over year. This is because I can buy two shares of the $1.00 stock for the same capital investment as one share of the $2.00 stock. Thus, two shares of $1.00 stock at 20% return equals $2.40 after one year compared to your one share of the $2.00 stock at 15% which was worth $2.30 after a year.

    I’m beginning to see why Trump makes so much sense to you.

  7. jerry 2017-12-04

    Ouch, that one is gonna leave a mark.

  8. OldSarg 2017-12-04

    Dearest Darin, that’s not the point. The point is the overall value of the market.

  9. Donald Pay 2017-12-04

    There’s a lot of misunderstanding about “the market” being spit out by Old Sarge. He thinks it’s a matter of math. No, it isn’t just math. Let’s take a few of the the big misunderstandings, which should make anyone question much of what he is saying here.

    Here’s the big one from Old Sarge: “It has to do with empowering the people to control their own money.”

    Anytime anyone invests a dollar in a company’s stock or mutual fund or ETF, or in anything other than himself or herself, he or she no longer controls that dollar. The control of that dollar has been given up to a market. You can put a dollar in and take it out, and you can determine when you do that. Anything else is not under your control.

    All that “money” invested in the stock market that Old Sarge talks about is all on paper, though now it is probably in electrons. Stocks prices do not necessarily indicate anything real about a company. The market runs more on emotion, than facts, so any stock price is the result of a mix of a lot of unknowable things along with some knowable things. No human being, no matter how “empowered” in Old Sarge’s words, can assess all the facts needed to know how to make any “returns.” A lot of it is just luck.

    You don’t have a “return” of anything after one year unless you sell the stock, otherwise it’s just a paper return. You may get a dividend, if your company happens to provide one, in a profitable year. Many companies decide to short the dividend to stockholders to buy their stock back and inflate their stock price, so people like Old Sarge will be fooled into thinking that is a good stock.

    Old Sarge’s take on the size of the market is really strange. It used to be that the NASDAQ was a very small market, but people who invested in many of the NASDAQ stocks are filthy rich now.

  10. OldSarg 2017-12-05

    Donald “The market runs more on emotion” that is my exact point and why Trump can be credited with the growth around the world. Think about it: What else has changed? There have been no major inventions, energy finds or breakthroughs in business. The only thing that seems to be driving this market is the change in the world’s largest market leadership. That’s it. That’s all there is. “If”, and that is a big IF, Trump survives the Press and Deep State’s attempt to destroy him how much will the world’s markets grow?

    I am not telling you Trump is some sort of business genius, though much better than the majority, but I am telling you the businesses, investors, owners of Mutual Funds, Moms and Pops, young people, old people, other countries see possibility! That is the “emotion” you spoke of. The big question is: Can Trump survive the Press, and Deep State? I honestly don’t know. I hope so for the world’s sake but I don’t know. . .

  11. Cory Allen Heidelberger Post author | 2017-12-05

    Wait—so now OldSarg is claiming, without evidence—actually counter to the evidence—that Trump gets credit for all global stock market increases? What kind of nutty globalism is that?

    The only credit Trump gets for the faster gains in other markets is for scaring investors away from the U.S.:

    All stocks across the globe are valued at $89.9 trillion. U.S. shares make up only 31.6 percent of that total. That’s the lowest proportion since November 2011, or a few months after the U.S. flirted with default. And it’s sunk from the 11-year high of 38.3 percent set in December under then-President Barack Obama [Nick Baker, “Trump Stock Market Is Great, But Rest of the World’s Is Greater,” Bloomberg, 2017.10.27].

    I know you like to skip the evidence I present and run straight to your barroom bluster, OldSarg, but check my links in the original post. The main blockquote I presented said right there that the Italian surge is due to EU recovery, not anything Trump has done. You don’t get to just say things to make them true. You have to back them up with something other than your wishful thinking.

  12. Darin Larson 2017-12-05

    What I find amusing is that OldSarg started out by claiming we are all fools and that a journalist couldn’t possibly understand the complexities of reporting the performance of the stock market. He illustrated that by concluding that market capitalization is more important than rate of return. I would like to know what university teaches this approach? Trump University perhaps? I like 20% returns over 15% returns, but somehow in the OldSarg/Trump world 15% is better than 20%.

    Now OldSarg has come full circle to conclude you don’t need to be a financial wizard to explain the stock market. Now Sarge says it’s all based upon emotion and somehow the world markets love Trump so much that Trump is responsible for all world markets going up as well.

    Now I’m sure when the markets correct and go down again some day that will be Obama’s fault. Something to do with his birth certificate being forged, I imagine. Or was Hillary’s emails that will cause the next stock market crash?

    Just to recap what we have learned here: Stock market goes up under Obama = bad. Stock market goes up under Trump = good. Stock market goes down under Trump = Obama or Hillary’s fault, Lock them up!

  13. jerry 2017-12-05

    Emotion and reality will set in about 3 to 4 days from now. The corporate masters will realize that the smoke and mirror of cut cut cut tax bill is a farce that will cost them millions and millions of their Own money, imagine that. Then comes the fact of keeping the doors open for the country itself. As Bloomberg notes, the last time there was such a failure was 2011. Yogi Berra had a saying that is as true now as it was when he said, “It’s deja vu all over again”. One thing for certain, Yogi knew baseball and he envisioned the republican’s ability to fail at governing. Markets will drop 600 immediately.

    trump is the ghost of Warren G. Harding in all manners and governs exactly like old Warren governed, corruption is the key, none for you and all for me.

  14. mike from iowa 2017-12-05

    Then Huckleberry Hound Sanders will pop out of her burrow on Feb 2nd and blame the stock market crash on Liberals for not believing in Drumpf’s tax plans.

  15. OldSarg 2017-12-05

    “Evidence” Cory?: “All stocks across the globe are valued at $89.9 trillion. U.S. shares make up only 31.6 percent of that total”. Did you read what you posted? The US MARKETS COMPOSE 31.6%!!! Here we are, Lil’Ol US of A are 31.6% of the WORLD’s market yet we are composed of only 4.6% of the world’s population.

    The US market is the largest in the world. Properly used we have more political power than ever existed on earth. This is just another reason he is clearing out the State Department Swamp. Most of our other departments need to be flushed of lifetime government employees as well. Over 33% of Trump’s department heads came from private industry. These are people that have created jobs, invented things, produced income and provide the very food that sits on your table. It is far past time you started to get on this wagon to success as opposed to biting at the heels of those in this parade.

  16. mike from iowa 2017-12-05

    This is just another reason he is clearing out the State Department Swamp. Most of our other departments need to be flushed of lifetime government employees as well. Over 33% of Trump’s department heads came from private industry. These are people that have created jobs, invented things, produced income and provide the very food that sits on your table.

    Colluded with Russia is what OldRolledOatGroats meant to say.These are many of the same people who created the worst financial failure in America since the great Depression. Yeah, be sure to hire these guys.

  17. mike from iowa 2017-12-05

    Stock Markets are sensitive to big national news. Let’s see which way the cat jumps now that Mueller has subpoenaed Drumpf’s Deutsch Bank records, Drumpf warned Mueller not to go there.

  18. OldSarg 2017-12-05

    Jerry and mike from Iowa, the Deutshe Bank Trump records request is most likely fake. It was just probably just a story leaked to the press to determine who the leakers are. A “false flag” if you would. . . Meuller has leaks, Trump has leaks, the government as a whole is leaking like a sieve. I bet you the Manafort story is the same thing.

  19. Cory Allen Heidelberger Post author | 2017-12-05

    OldSarg, how can you in good conscience read only half of the text I provided and so blatantly twist the conclusion? Yes, the U.S. market is a huge share of the global market. Under Trump, our share has shrunk. That tells me investors would rather bet their money in other markets.

    I really find such specious arguments offensive. Be honest or go home.

  20. mike from iowa 2017-12-05

    Fake Noize is spreading the story that the subpoena never happened because wingnuts in Congress wouldn’t allow it.

    Too bad, so sad. Mueller is independent of wingnuts and has his own subpoena power that wingnuts can’t obstruct without running afoul of obstruction statutes.

  21. OldSarg 2017-12-05

    Oops! I guess I was right. No subpoenaed, no bank records, no investigation. . . WHITE HOUSE: NO BANK RECORDS SUBPOENAED

    I think they are narrowing down the path to the traitors to the Nation still hiding in the government.

    You know, when Bill Clinton left office his folks demonstrated a lack of class. Obama’s are just downright evil.

  22. OldSarg 2017-12-05

    “The U.S. stock market is probably rising due to factors outside Donald Trump’s control. But if Trumpists want to credit their guy for America’s stock gains, they need to explain why Trump isn’t able to make the American market grow as fast as some foreign markets who are burdened with all their dirty socialism and refugees and other yucky things that should be holding them back.”

    Cory, if you want to chase performance because one market is up over another without you even understanding this is more than just an up and down exercise in performance just go for it but the truth is the world markets are up because the world has more faith in a US leader who leads from the front rather than cowering in the rear. The word is “momentum”.

  23. Darin Larson 2017-12-05

    OldSarge says “. . . but the truth is the world markets are up because the world has more faith in a US leader who leads from the front rather than cowering in the rear. The word is “momentum”.”

    You can’t be serious. With the possible exception of Israel (who doesn’t respect him but likes his favoritism towards them) and some right wing fringe groups, the esteem that most countries have held the US has been seriously impaired by the Trump presidency. People from other countries think we have lost our collective minds in the US by electing Trump. Obama was held in high esteem by our allies and respected by our enemies. Trump is a laughingstock and a buffoon. He competes with the North Korean dictator on a daily basis for most unhinged rhetoric.

    Wait until Trump isn’t President and the stories start coming out about what world leaders actually thought about him while he was President.

  24. Darin Larson 2017-12-05

    “sexual deviants exposed and leaving office” I thought Roy Moore was still running for Senate.

  25. Darin Larson 2017-12-05

    OldSarg, you have to read the stories that you cite on here. Your story on the peace plan basically states that all the critical parties have rejected the supposed plan. You should also take into account that Trump has alienated the Palestinians and his proposal to recognize Jerusalem has needlessly inflamed tensions in the Middle East. With Trump at the helm, we are closer to the Rapture than a peace plan for the Middle East.

  26. mike from iowa 2017-12-05

    Old? is reviving the failed dumbass dubya complaints that Clinton’s people trashed the WH before leaving. Investigated and debunked 18 plus years ago. OldFella, do try to keep up with the present.

  27. jerry 2017-12-05

    “sexual deviants exposed and leaving office” when is trump leaving for sexual abuse of teen’s?

  28. jerry 2017-12-05

    Markets down 110 today. Winning!! Deadline nears for government to stay open. Paging Barack Obama…Paging former great President Obama, American needs your leadership…

  29. OldSarg 2017-12-06

    Oops! President Trump moves the embassy into Jerusalem! Winning!!!!

    Do you think Franken is going to resign tomorrow?

  30. mike from iowa 2017-12-06

    Faith in Drumpf from overseas-22% down from near 70% under the one and only Obama the Great.

    Drumpf is dead set on another Middle Eastern War with countries having nukes. Drumpf and OldBlister- the height of stoopidity.

  31. Darin Larson 2017-12-06

    Trump only did this to shore up his base of deplorables. He cares nothing about peace in the Middle East and he understands nothing about how to approach it. He only cares about his political supporters. He is inciting the Arab world needlessly. He has driven a wedge between Israel and Saudi Arabia at a time when they were cooperating more than ever in opposing the Iranian regime and its terrorist allies. Trump’s actions have been universally panned by our allies with the exception of Israel. Who writes the checks for the wars in the Middle East? The US or Israel? Who fights the battles and loses thousands of lives in the Middle East? The US or Israel? If Israel starts a war, who will be finishing it? You know who.

    Just as the remnants of ISIS are being stamped out, Trump makes sure to ignite Middle East tensions and give another excuse to terrorists to target Americans. Trump is the best recruiter for terrorists on the planet. But isn’t that what he wants? A world in chaos with frequent terrorist attacks serve to distract from the Russia investigation and Trump’s lack of domestic policy achievements. It also bolsters his authoritarian tin pot dictator schtick with his deplorables that slurp it up like gravy. He has torpedoed any hope of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians probably for a generation. More of our soldiers will lose their lives or their health because of Trump’s stupidity. More of our treasury will go to fight the unceasing wars in the Middle East. More terrorists will spring forth to take innocent lives. All so Trump can give Bubba something to crow about among his base.

  32. jerry 2017-12-06

    There is already a consulate in Jerusalem nothing to see here for sure. The embassy stays were it is as are all the rest of the embassy’s. Mueller continues his march to the sea like General Sherman on his way through Georgia. It’s Mueller time. Last check, markets are down 40 points.

    I hope Franken does take the high road and steps down. That will be great as Dayton can appoint another strong Democrat that would be in place as an incumbent for the next election. I will miss Franken, but will warm to the idea that Democrats have taken the lead to rid themselves of an undo burden. Now will Roypublicans do the same? Not hardly. New criteria for Roypublicans is that you must be a pedophile or in that same category to even be considered. Wonder about our congress critters. Are they or aren’t they??

  33. mike from iowa 2017-12-06

    When did Israel appoint Drumpf to name a new capitol for them?

  34. OldSarg 2017-12-06

    What about Al? Is he staying or going?

    Oh, I have to repost mike from iowa’s “When did Israel appoint Drumpf to name a new capitol for them?” Somebody explain to him what the capital of Israel is. Well, never mind. The guy is clueless. Beyond saving. You could beat the fool with a book and he wouldn’t understand. A few fries short of a Happy Meal. A few clowns short of a circus. . .

  35. mike from iowa 2017-12-06

    Jewrusalem is not recognized as Israel’s capital by the entire world. Therefore, it is not.

    You’d know that if you actually got news from a reputable news outfit, not the disreputable ones you wallow in.

    The next potus, who will undoubtedly be legally elected and not Putin appointed will issue an EO rescinding Drumpf’s silly act of war and recommending a strait jacket for Old Stoner.

  36. mike from iowa 2017-12-06

    NBC’s Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Andrea Mitchell listed off almost the entire leaders of the world who were adamantly opposed to Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

    Host Chris Jansing was incredulous. “Is there anybody in the Arab world who thinks that this could lead to peace? Is there anybody among our European allies who think that this is part of what the president said pretty offhandedly during the campaign, that this could be much easier than people thought to solve peace process in the Middle East?”

    “Frankly, no,” Mitchell replied. “Not in the Arab world, not in the European union, not at NATO. Not at the U.N., with the Secretary General today making a statement there. It’s hard to find anyone, not the Pope – he has spoken out.”

    She said that the White House is putting out word that the Saudis quietly support this move, but that doesn’t appear to be true.

  37. mike from iowa 2017-12-06

    So Drumpf lied again when he said he could get peace in the Middle East. Hope yer ready to go and die for nothing, Old Whatever. Sign up and take Drumpf’s worthless spawn with you.

  38. Darin Larson 2017-12-06

    Somebody told Trump he couldn’t mess up the Middle East any worse if he tried. Trump said “hold my beer and watch this.”

  39. mike from iowa 2017-12-07

    “JERUSALEM – In response to US President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, the Palestinian National Authority has announced that it will recognize Texas as a state of Mexico since it was violently annexed by the United States in the 1840s.

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