2026 Jobs Figures Challenge BLR Projection for Decade of Job Growth in South Dakota

The South Dakota Bureau of Labor and Regulation thinks the state will see jobs increase over the next decade at more than double the national rate:

South Dakota’s employment is expected to grow by about 38,559 jobs, or 7.4%, by the year 2034. This is faster than the projected national increase of 3.1% (about 5.2 million jobs). These projections are based on several statistical models that use historical employment data along with state and national economic trends.

The nationally used projections methodology assumes no major disasters, pandemics, or other events will occur during the projections period that would greatly disrupt economic activity during the projection period.

South Dakota’s future growth is supported by several factors: the state’s location, the rise of e-commerce, strong consumer demand, population growth, needs related to an aging population, and new technology. The total number of workers in South Dakota is expected to reach about 562,027 by 2034. This is an annual growth rate of 0.74%. Nationally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects employment to reach about 175.2 million by 2034, which is an annual growth rate of 0.3% [Bureau of Labor and Regulation, “South Dakota Industry Employment Trends to 2034,” South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin, July 2026].

That projection could be considered conservative: the historical annual growth rate of jobs in South Dakota since 1990 (the earliest year for which BLR lists jobs data) has averaged 1.03%, and annual job growth beat that in six of the last seven years (exception: 2020, when covid upset the economy and South Dakota’s jobs decreased 1.34%, from which drop South Dakota fully recovered in 2021 with a 2.59% increase).

South Dakota’s available workforce has grown with similar strength: average annual growth of 0.98% annually, above that average in five of the last seven years, and still managed to avoid shrinkage during the pandemic, with 0.11% more available workers in 2020 and 0.93% more in 2021.

But this year that growth has stopped. From January through July, South Dakota has seen a year-over-year decrease in employment. The average difference in 2026 jobs versus 2025 jobs has been –0.75%; in July, that difference was –1.90%, 9,306 fewer jobs than in July 2025.

Total workforce is seeing a similar decline in 2026. Six of seven months this year have seen fewer available workers than the same month in 2025. The average difference has been –0.68%; In July, the year-over-year difference was –1.84%, 9,206 fewer available workers than in July 2025.

What might be reversing South Dakota’s jobs and workforce fortunes? We’ve talked about this often: the immigration crackdown that Kristi Noem and Larry Rhoden have facilitated is working against South Dakota’s and America’s aspirations for sustaining its workforce growth. In March, Sioux Falls immigration attorney said the current regime’s repulsion of immigrants will drag down South Dakota’s workforce for years:

Dairy producers are losing workers, facing stricter federal inspections and navigating a tangle of canceled visa programs. An immigration attorney who works with agricultural employers across the region says it’s only going to get harder.

Amanda Bahena of the Woods Fuller Shultz & Smith law firm in Sioux Falls laid out the landscape for producers at the Central Plains Dairy Expo March 19, covering everything from the end of automatic work permit extensions to what to do when ICE – U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement – shows up at the farm.

“We are definitely going to see a major, major dip continuing over the next three years in immigrant labor available,” Bahena said. “There is a significant portion, like people with kids, who are just throwing in the towel and leaving” [Katelyn Winberg, “Immigration Crackdown Hits Dairy Industry with Labor Shortages, Compliance Pressure,” Tri-State Neighbor, 2026.03.26].

Dairy workers, truck drivers, nursing home caregivers—we’re running short of those workers and lots of others, all because we’re turning away willing and able applicants from other countries. And we’re ignoring empirical evidence that welcoming immigrants creates more jobs for those of us who are already here:

This phenomenon of complementary work has been well-documented in economic research. One 2014 paper, for example, found that both low- and high-skilled native-born workers saw higher employment rates due to an immigration influx in the 2000s. And a 2024 paper found firms employing immigrants increased productivity, investments, and profits in nonagricultural industries, with positive impacts on native-born employment in rural areas [Christopher Bangert-Drowns, “Economic Research Shows Immigration Is Good for U.S. Workers, the Economy, and Affordability,” Washington Center for Equitable Growth, 2026.08.31].

…and deporting immigrants doesn’t increase job opportunities for the folks we don’t kick out:

Other papers examining the effects of deportations found negative impacts on native-born employment. The deportations of Mexican immigrants and U.S. citizens of Mexican descent during the Great Depression, for example, were found to decrease native-born employment, particularly among workers who held higher-skilled jobs that were previously complemented by their deported colleagues. Relatedly, the “bracero exclusion” in 1964, which removed nearly half-a-million Mexican agricultural workers, did not result in the promised boost to native-born farm wages and employment. Instead, jobs that had been previously filled by seasonal immigrant workers were either replaced by machines or eliminated entirely due to decreased domestic production [Bangert-Drowns, 2026.08.31].

BLR said its 2034 projections assume “no major disasters… that would greatly disrupt economic activity….” Lots of data and historical examples suggest that the current immigration crackdown may be one such major disaster disrupting South Dakota’s economic activity.