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Coronavirus Produces Historic GDP Drop and Ongoing Job Losses

In June, Donald Trump was saying the economy would recover along a “rocket ship” trajectory.

In April, May, and June, the economy did follow a rocketship trajectory—downward:

Economic output fell at its fastest pace on record last spring as the coronavirus pandemic forced businesses across the United States to close their doors and kept millions of Americans shut in their homes for weeks.

Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of goods and services produced — fell 9.5 percent in the second quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. On an annualized basis, the standard way of reporting quarterly economic data, G.D.P. fell at a rate of 32.9 percent [Ben Casselman, “U.S. G.D.P. Fell 9.5 Percent,” New York Times, 2020.07.30].

According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the nation produced $19.41 trillion worth of goods and services in the second quarter of this year. That’s $2.15 trillion less than we produced in the first three months of this year and $1.9 trillion less than we GDP’ed in 2019 Q2. Compare the steepness of that dip with every past recession in my lifetime:

St. Louis Fed, U.S. Quarterly GDP, early 1970s to 2020 Q2, retrieved 2020.07.03.
St. Louis Fed, U.S. Quarterly GDP, mid-1970s to 2020 Q2, retrieved 2020.07.03.

Of course, every trillion less that we make and buy means lots of people out of work. The American job market just posted its unprecedented 19th straight week of over one million jobless claims. Those weekly claims spiked with coronavirus in March and April and quickly declined, but since Trump’s premature economic pronouncement in early June, layoffs and closures have continued to send over a million Americans a week to the unemployment office:

NYT, initial weekly unemployment claims, January–July 2020, in Casselman, 2020.07.30.
NYT, initial weekly unemployment claims, January–July 2020, in Casselman, 2020.07.30.

I don’t know what lies Trump and Kristi Noem will tell about this data, but their wishful thinking has made these awful numbers worse. Neither those liars nor Congress nor the Fed will be able drag GDP and employment up out of the coronavirus recession until we bring coronavirus under control. We desperately need Donald and Kristi to stop lying, put on their masks, tell everyone else to put on their masks, and invest in public health and scientific research to make it safe, really safe, for Americans to go out and shop, work, travel, and party again.

13 Comments

  1. Moses6 2020-07-30 13:18

    Kris should not take any money from the fed govt as if you have fiscal values.We should cut school funding further and further until their are only substitute teachers left.In the mean time our teachers then go to surrounding states and make more money teaching as Kristi does not evidently care about education in S.D.

  2. jerry 2020-07-30 14:18

    Oh hell ya, let’s see if we can hit 10,000 deaths a day, that’ll own the libs.

    “New infections appear to have peaked across the United States, but hospitalizations continue to rise, and the death toll is soaring. More than 1,400 coronavirus-related deaths were reported nationwide Wednesday — roughly one fatality for every minute of the day, and the worst day for covid-19 deaths in more than two months. Arizona, Florida and Mississippi on Thursday already reported record-high new deaths in one day, as the day’s data begins to come in.”

    Thank EB5 Short Rounds and that other worthless pos, John Thune, for this disaster. They could’ve voted to impeach this turd and flush him down the crapper.

  3. Buckobear 2020-07-30 15:47

    … and they told me that if I voted for Hillary the country would go to hell. I did and it did. Go figure.
    … and now rtump is sayin’ the same about Biden.

  4. 96Tears 2020-07-30 19:04

    “We’re going to win so much that you’re going to be sick and tired. You’re going to say, ‘Please, please, Mr. President, we’re sick and tired of winning. Please let us have at least one loss. It’s no longer exciting to win.’ And I’m going to say, ‘No way, we’re going to keep winning, and I don’t care if you like it or not.’” Donald J. Trump, 2016 campaign

  5. jerry 2020-07-30 20:47

    EB5 Short Rounds and the skin tag, Thune, are abandoning trump on schedule. They tossed him an anvil today and acted all concerned about something that trump said that was stupid. The republican party, with the exception of a few, will be leaving in mass soon. They hope that you will all forget how they sold you out to Russia and others. The skin tag, Thune, wants that minority senate leader bad man. With it comes an even greater retirement package, just another grifter from Murdo.

  6. John 2020-07-30 21:51

    Consider pausing here for a “Kodak moment”. This is what political graft looks like.
    If the republicans presently in office – Thune, Rounds, Johnson, Neom — aren’t going to stop trump now, then what are they in office for?!

    https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-grifters-chapter-1-kodak/

    Rest assured that through their actions, that they don’t care about the economy and common people. Congress adjoined for this week without finishing covid virus assistance, including unemployment.

  7. Debbo 2020-07-30 22:01

    The more dire his prospects for November look, the crazier he gets. He’s been escalating his level of bat$hit higher and higher. I don’t think there is an insanity ceiling that sane folks can imagine.

    My friend, the duly licensed and professionally respected psychotherapist, admitted that Lying Lunatic is “crazy.” When even the pros admit that the word “crazy” fits him, you know it’s really bad.

  8. jerry 2020-07-30 23:15

    Ms. Debbo, this will be his insanity deal to get away with the grift…count on it. The more he takes us down the rabbit trials, the more we forget about the Post Office and all the rest of the robbing of our treasury.

  9. jerry 2020-07-30 23:44

    The virus is hitting Argentina soybean crushing shipping points. Ever hear of these big time operators?

    “China’s Cofco International and U.S. agribusiness firm Bunge Ltd. were both forced to idle port terminals and soybean crush plants north of Rosario on the Parana River, Argentina’s hub for shipments of soy meal for livestock feed and soy oil for cooking and biofuel. Local shipper Vicentin SAIC also had its operations disrupted after employees tested positive.”

    We ain’t seen nothing yet and the republican leadership doesn’t want to address it either. They are to busy dreaming of a way to steal the 1.25 BILLION and pull a Joop EB5 scheme to be able to get away with it.

  10. bearcreekbat 2020-07-31 09:53

    Wow John, that “Kodak moment” is just too much. Thanks for that link. Grifting 101.

  11. mike from iowa 2020-07-31 16:01

    drumpf body count passes new milestone today and still drumpf has done nothing positive to stem the tides of infections and deaths.
    One might begin to think the stable genius is not that stable a genius afterall.

    Coronavirus Cases:
    4,690,274
    Deaths:
    156,265

  12. mike from iowa 2020-08-01 07:36

    To start the month of August on a positive note (depending on which way your political ship sails)….

    Covid deaths
    4,707,401
    Deaths:
    156,772

    Red states in sight, Covid delight

    Blue states aborning, Covid take warning.

  13. Debbo 2020-08-01 13:43

    Excellent nautical poetry, Mike.

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