In a new report released today, the United States Census Bureau estimates that America’s population growth from July 1, 2020, to July 1, 2021, was the slowest in our nation’s history, due to deaths outpacing births in nearly three quarters of American counties:
More than 73% of counties in the United States, totaling 2,297, saw natural decrease in 2021, up from 45.5% in 2019 and 55.5% in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2021 estimates of population and components of change released Thursday. Natural decrease occurs when there are more deaths than births in a population over a given time period.
Fewer births, an aging population and increased mortality, partially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to a rise in natural decrease, the Census Bureau wrote. Multiple states, including Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island, saw natural decrease in all counties [Shepard Price, “2021 Was the Slowest Year of Growth in U.S. History, per Census Bureau,” Alton (IL) Telegraph, 2022.03.24].
Migration from here and abroad saved many counties from shrinking. 1,822 counties showed net population gains from July 2020 to July 2021, while 1,313 counties lost population and eight posted no change in the Census estimate. Put another way, as of last July, 52.63% of Americans—1714.7 million people—lived in growing counties.
This Census map shows 35 of South Dakota’s 66 counties managed to add population from July 2020 to July 2021. But growth skewed toward larger counties: 660,701 South Dakotans, 73.79% of our total estimated population of 895,367, lived in growing counties in 2021:
| County | Census count April 1, 2020 | Census estimated population July 1, 2020 | Census estimated population July 1, 2021 | % change 2020–2021 |
| Aurora | 2,747 | 2,733 | 2,748 | 0.55% |
| Beadle | 19,149 | 19,146 | 19,121 | -0.13% |
| Bennett | 3,381 | 3,386 | 3,406 | 0.59% |
| Bon Homme | 7,003 | 6,979 | 7,014 | 0.50% |
| Brookings | 34,375 | 34,339 | 34,639 | 0.87% |
| Brown | 38,301 | 38,210 | 38,101 | -0.29% |
| Brule | 5,247 | 5,263 | 5,242 | -0.40% |
| Buffalo | 1,948 | 1,944 | 1,923 | -1.08% |
| Butte | 10,243 | 10,249 | 10,456 | 2.02% |
| Campbell | 1,377 | 1,374 | 1,380 | 0.44% |
| Charles Mix | 9,373 | 9,351 | 9,163 | -2.01% |
| Clark | 3,837 | 3,850 | 3,855 | 0.13% |
| Clay | 14,967 | 14,998 | 15,150 | 1.01% |
| Codington | 28,325 | 28,309 | 28,427 | 0.42% |
| Corson | 3,902 | 3,893 | 3,872 | -0.54% |
| Custer | 8,318 | 8,328 | 8,609 | 3.37% |
| Davison | 19,956 | 19,936 | 19,878 | -0.29% |
| Day | 5,449 | 5,425 | 5,414 | -0.20% |
| Deuel | 4,295 | 4,299 | 4,272 | -0.63% |
| Dewey | 5,239 | 5,226 | 5,246 | 0.38% |
| Douglas | 2,835 | 2,824 | 2,821 | -0.11% |
| Edmunds | 3,986 | 3,977 | 4,033 | 1.41% |
| Fall River | 6,973 | 6,964 | 7,202 | 3.42% |
| Faulk | 2,125 | 2,128 | 2,137 | 0.42% |
| Grant | 7,556 | 7,532 | 7,519 | -0.17% |
| Gregory | 3,994 | 3,994 | 3,977 | -0.43% |
| Haakon | 1,872 | 1,869 | 1,835 | -1.82% |
| Hamlin | 6,164 | 6,167 | 6,255 | 1.43% |
| Hand | 3,145 | 3,130 | 3,095 | -1.12% |
| Hanson | 3,461 | 3,461 | 3,505 | 1.27% |
| Harding | 1,311 | 1,317 | 1,327 | 0.76% |
| Hughes | 17,765 | 17,704 | 17,694 | -0.06% |
| Hutchinson | 7,427 | 7,411 | 7,411 | 0.00% |
| Hyde | 1,262 | 1,258 | 1,236 | -1.75% |
| Jackson | 2,806 | 2,810 | 2,878 | 2.42% |
| Jerauld | 1,663 | 1,657 | 1,636 | -1.27% |
| Jones | 917 | 925 | 879 | -4.97% |
| Kingsbury | 5,187 | 5,211 | 5,192 | -0.36% |
| Lake | 11,059 | 11,010 | 10,851 | -1.44% |
| Lawrence | 25,768 | 25,812 | 26,165 | 1.37% |
| Lincoln | 65,161 | 65,613 | 67,870 | 3.44% |
| Lyman | 3,718 | 3,714 | 3,764 | 1.35% |
| McCook | 5,682 | 5,661 | 5,695 | 0.60% |
| McPherson | 2,411 | 2,397 | 2,420 | 0.96% |
| Marshall | 4,306 | 4,300 | 4,304 | 0.09% |
| Meade | 29,852 | 29,853 | 30,173 | 1.07% |
| Mellette | 1,918 | 1,916 | 1,908 | -0.42% |
| Miner | 2,298 | 2,294 | 2,314 | 0.87% |
| Minnehaha | 197,214 | 197,511 | 199,685 | 1.10% |
| Moody | 6,336 | 6,324 | 6,315 | -0.14% |
| Oglala Lakota | 13,672 | 13,672 | 13,586 | -0.63% |
| Pennington | 109,222 | 109,475 | 111,806 | 2.13% |
| Perkins | 2,835 | 2,824 | 2,819 | -0.18% |
| Potter | 2,472 | 2,471 | 2,475 | 0.16% |
| Roberts | 10,280 | 10,257 | 10,163 | -0.92% |
| Sanborn | 2,330 | 2,318 | 2,378 | 2.59% |
| Spink | 6,361 | 6,338 | 6,269 | -1.09% |
| Stanley | 2,980 | 2,976 | 3,032 | 1.88% |
| Sully | 1,446 | 1,446 | 1,476 | 2.07% |
| Todd | 9,319 | 9,319 | 9,286 | -0.35% |
| Tripp | 5,624 | 5,601 | 5,569 | -0.57% |
| Turner | 8,673 | 8,673 | 8,708 | 0.40% |
| Union | 16,811 | 16,832 | 16,872 | 0.24% |
| Walworth | 5,315 | 5,289 | 5,248 | -0.78% |
| Yankton | 23,310 | 23,238 | 23,297 | 0.25% |
| Ziebach | 2,413 | 2,388 | 2,380 | -0.34% |
| South Dakota Total | 886,667 | 887,099 | 895,376 | 0.93% |
The fastest growing counties in South Dakota were Lincoln, Fall River, and Custer, all adding more than 3.3% to their populations. Five other counties grew by more than 2%: Sanborn, Jackson, Pennington, Sully, and Butte. Nine more counties beat 1% growth: Stanley, Hamlin, Edmunds, Lawrence, Lyman, Hanson, Minnehaha, Meade, and Clay.
Jones County, the only county in South Dakota with population under a thousand, led the losers, shedding almost 5% of its population. Charles Mix County lost 2.0%. Seven other counties declined by more than 1% in one year: Haakon, Hyde, Lake, Jerauld, Hand, Spink, and Buffalo.
South Dakota bucked the national figures on births vs. deaths, with 35 counties showing natural increase and 31 showing natural decrease. But those 35 natural growers weren’t the same as the 35 net growers. Fourteen counties saw natural decline—more deaths than births—but saw an even greater net immigration, thus preserving population growth: Yankton, Turner, Potter, Miner, Meade, McPherson, McCook, Lawrence, Fall River, Custer, Codington, Campbell, Butte, and Bon Homme.
Thirteen counties made babies faster than folks were dying but saw enough people move away to outweigh their natural increase and post net population loss for the year ending July 1, 2021: Todd, Roberts, Oglala Lakota, Moody, Mellette, Lake, Hand, Corson, Charles Mix, Buffalo, Brule, Brown, and Beadle.
Pennington County led the state for net immigration, with 2,126 more people moving in than moving away, more than second-place Lincoln (1,878) and third-place Minnehaha (1,201). Lawrence County saw the next-largest net immigration of 415; Meade, Custer, and Fall River broke 300; Butte and Brookings broke 200; and Clay and Codington broke 100.
Charles Mix saw the largest net emigration, with a net loss of 202 movers. Lake, Oglala Lakota, Brown, and Todd each lost over a hundred people in net emigration.
Using percentages to show the rate of growth, rather than the actual numbers, masks the reality of what is happening in SD counties. Does anyone really think that Edmunds County, by adding less than 50 people, grew faster than Sioux Falls? Edmunds County has been in decline, like many SD counties for 100 years now. I am not sure that a one-year uptick really means anything.
The size of western counties also skews these numbers; growth in Meade and Pennington (and frankly probably Custer) is related to growth in Rapid City and the RC growth hides what is happening in the rural parts of these counties.
We also need a deeper dive into the numbers; the SF region has added three public high schools since the 80;s (two in SF and Tea) and significant growth in Harrisburg and BV. In contrast, RC area high schools don’t show much growth since then; a new alternative HS (with lots of students who probably just dropped out 40 years ago) and growth in Douglas. Both RC and SF show lots of growth, but RC seems to be aging as much as growing . That ought to be of great concern to the people of SD
A final point is that census numbers for reservation counties have always been a little unreliable for a number of reasons. I notice that estimates and counts for Todd and Oglala Lakota are the same (true also for some smaller counties). I’m not sure how to correct for this but it’s something to keep in mind when making comparisons.
Cory: Although we disagree on many issues, these type of informational articles are invaluable to those of us who study population trends and there likely impact on the state. One conclusion you can possibly extrapolate from the information provided that in the decade of the 2030’s, there will be one more legislative district in the Sioux Falls area and one less in what I like to call the hinterland of the state. Only time will tell. Thanks for publishing this information from the Census Bureau. JB
How are 66 county seats either conservative or sustainable? New Mexico has almost twice the area and does great with 33 counties.
Come on , I mean really, what else was there to do? Soon with all reproductive alternatives banned in the red states you’ll grow like rabbits.
When the availability of open alcohol serving establishments with bawdy music and dimly lit environs declines, the chances for reproduction-age men and women to bump uglies also declines.
Population increase stalls as a result of closed bars and is hindered when adults share the basement at their folks’ house with their younger siblings.
These statements are based on my scientific reproductive awareness and objective observation.
Overall:
https://www.axios.com/mapped-counties-population-growth-338b1571-bfa9-4610-ac98-184f90d1eaa0.html
Re. connection between abortion laws and birth rates: The new Texas abortion law has not led to a decline in abortions. Women are traveling out of state, and ordering self-administered abortifacients online/by mail. (They are officially illegal in TX but there’s no real way to enforce the law.)
The population dynamics baked in to the US population – a huge Boomer cohort aging its way out of this life, a Millennial generation where 1/4 of women may never have any kids, and a sharp, maybe permanent drop in immigration – pretty much guarantee that the US population will stop growing soon. It already has stopped in many states. In that context growth will happen in a handful of metros and high-amenity rural areas, and stabilize or decline everywhere else. The current labor shortage will be with us from here on out.
Senator Bolin, I’d be surprised if it were just one more Sioux Falls district. If Minnehaha and Lincoln counties sustain the rate of growth shown above, those two Sioux Falls counties (I know, there’s a lot of Lincoln south of Harrisburg, but the growth is concentrated in the SF metro) are on pace for 17% growth, which would add over 45,000 people. Even if our 2030 district population grows from 25K to 27K, those additional SF metro inhabitants will make one new district easily and have another 17K–18K demanding fair representation.