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Duke Research: Masks Reduce Coronavirus Cases 90%, Deaths 80%

Another eager reader shares this new study from the Journal of General Internal Medicine, which investigates the differences in coronavirus cases and deaths between states that reopened indoor dining after the initial pandemic shutdowns after imposing statewide mask mandates and states that reopened before mandating masks. The scientists from Duke University find nothing surprising: require citizens to wear masks in public, and coronavirus will sicken and kill fewer people.

Perhaps surprising is the magnitude of the difference: require everyone to mask up, and you can reduce cases by 90% and deaths by 80%:

On average, the number of excess cases per 100,000 residents in states reopening without masks is ten times the number in states reopening with masks after 8 weeks (643.1 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 406.9, 879.2 and 62.9 cases; CI = 12.6, 113.1, respectively). Excess cases after 6 weeks could have been reduced by 90% from 576,371 to 63,062 and excess deaths reduced by 80% from 22,851 to 4858 had states implemented mask mandates prior to reopening. Over 50,000 excess deaths were prevented within 6 weeks in 13 states that implemented mask mandates prior to reopening [Brystana G. Kaufman, Rebecca Whitaker, Nirosha Mahendraratnam Lederer, Valerie A. Lewis, and Mark B. McClellan, “Comparing Associations of State Reopening Strategies with Covid-19 Burden,” Journal of General Internal Medicine, 2020.10.06].

In South Dakota, a statewide mask mandate could have meant that instead of 27,215 total cases as of yesterday, we’d have seen only 2,800. Instead of 277 of our friends and neighbors killed by coronavirus, we’d have seen only 60.

24,000 people not sick, not incurring medical costs, not taking the hit to their finances from missing two weeks of work in quarantine. Over 200 lives saved.

The Duke team concludes that mask mandates help the public go back to work, school, and church, with less negative public health impact:

States implementing mask mandates were successful in minimizing the negative impacts of reopening, which is an encouraging signal for the return to indoor, on-site services in public schools and places of worship. While masking policy was a key difference between groups, there were many differences in other policies that would contribute to the effect, such as delayed reopening of bars and salons. Previous work demonstrates the substantial effect of mask policies on coronavirus cases, potentially averting close to a half a million COVID-19 cases. States that reopened under conditions of low community spread were likely to have smaller numbers of cases and deaths in the weeks following reopening. However, mortality may be higher in rural states since older and rural residents are likely to experience greater burden of serious illness and mortality due to COVID-19 [Kaufman et al., 2020.10.06].

Kristi Noem won’t tell us to mask up or even model that life-saving behavior, so we’re going to have to do it ourselves. Follow the example of Brookings, our public universities, and other intelligent communities: wear your mask in public.

20 Comments

  1. kj trailer trash 2020-10-10 12:44

    KovidKristi’s next FB insanity: “Why don’t those Duke people stick to basketball instead of being an elite class of so-called experts? I’d bet they couldn’t ride a horse without dropping the flag.”

  2. Mike Livingston 2020-10-10 14:39

    If Joe or Jane Q Public were to act in a similar fashion to lil queen, I believe that even stark raving ravnsborg would be able make the case for reckless endangerment on a colossal scale. There is Justice for some and then there is just us po folk . If I recall correctly the multi-billionaire class has increased their wealth by an average of 24% during the pandemic so far, do you suppose that they invested in body-bags and caskets?

  3. cibvet 2020-10-10 16:01

    Just common sense that kristi and her beau have always lacked.

  4. Debbo 2020-10-10 21:01

    It’s insanity and base cruelty to have a simple tool at hand that can save so many lives and so much suffering, yet simply refuse to use it due to political expediency.

    I’ve read from several reputable sources that a large slice of people who “recover” from C-19 have enduring brain injuries of various types. That’s in addition to blood clots plus other cardiac, renal and respiratory issues. 90% of those long term to lifelong health issues were preventable but it didn’t suit the GOP, Kruel Kristi and Infectious Infant’s political needs.

    All of you who have deceased or disabled loved ones, Do You Understand That?!?!? You are literally EXPENDABLE!! 🤬 🤬 🤬 🤬 🤬

  5. DaveFN 2020-10-10 21:26

    Truisms have never been so true: Prevention is the best cure. Someone tell Trump and his minions, including SD governor Noem and hers.

  6. DaveFN 2020-10-10 21:32

    Truisms have never been as true: Prevention is the best cure. Someone tell Trump and his minions, including SD governor Noem and hers.

  7. John Dale 2020-10-10 21:38

    If healthy people aren’t exposed and we do not achieve herd immunity by Wintertime, we’ll have a real disaster on our hands. I did find this today (link below). Thoughts?

    I heard on No Agenda today that a group of reputable lawyers from Germany are bringing a suit and calling this the biggest crime against humanity in Earth’s written history.

    Certainly glad that our president got over his sickness quickly and never missed a beat at work.

    —–

    https://plainstribune.com/?service=events.Image&name=noCorrelationBetweenMaskUseAndCovid.png

  8. Mike Livingston 2020-10-10 22:19

    John d Have you had the virus yet? Do you really think that 213,000 dead Americans does not constitute a real disaster? Are you being facetious or is this the real deal? Just curious, everyone is entitled to their opinion and mine is, if lying and campaigning is work then Donald J Trump is working his very large butt off.

  9. jerry 2020-10-10 23:03

    chubby trumpy could only get 18 minutes, just barely over half what he claimed he would do. Cough cough, and with a paid audience of 400 black folk. The economy, and the employment in general, are so bad that these guys went to work to pick up a couple of bucks of taxpayer money for 18 minutes to cough on one another for more herd “mentality”. America doesn’t fight anymore, we just sit around getting our arse’s kicked.

    Anyone hear anything about his trump virus infected wife? He damn sure doesn’t even mention the mother of his son, what a guy.

  10. Cory Allen Heidelberger Post author | 2020-10-11 09:28

    So what, John? Are you threatening to get infected and come breathe in my wife and daughter’s faces? How unneighborly and disrespectful.

    How about instead we respect each other and stay away from each other as much as possible until we have a reliable vaccine that will cause much less death than your recklessness.

  11. bearcreekbat 2020-10-11 09:49

    The “herd immunity” argument seems not only dangerous and reckless, it seems oxymoronic – if the disease isn’t spread to more people (the “herd”) soon then the disease will end up spreading to more people (i.e. the “herd”).

  12. mike from iowa 2020-10-11 10:31

    Certainly glad that our president got over his sickness quickly and never missed a beat at work.

    drumpf actually works? Could have fooled me. You have no idea if he is over anything.

  13. jerry 2020-10-11 12:26

    GNOem doesn’t miss a beat at work either as you can see. Her ghoulish work continues with death and mayhem for her workload.

    “The state reported 617 new cases on 1,627 tests for a positivity rate of 37.9%. The total number of cases in South Dakota increased to 28,564 with 5,865 of those considered active infections – an increase of 332 from Saturday’s active case count.

    There were no new deaths reported Sunday, however, deaths are reported when the Department of Health receives the death certificate, not the day a death occurs. ” Rapid City Journal 10.11.2020

  14. mike from iowa 2020-10-16 11:52

    drumpf body count update looks like any update of the past several months..

    United States
    Coronavirus Cases:
    8,233,246
    Deaths:
    223,017

    Moar bodies for drum pf to revel in. Yes, I believe he does just that in private.

  15. jerry 2020-10-16 12:54

    mfi, add 75,000 more per CDC body count numbers on trump virus. Means we are now over 300,00 with no end in sight.

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