Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Sutton Less Likely to Lose Than We Thought!

Some national pundits agree with me that Billie Sutton’s story is good enough to give Democrats a better shot than usual at winning South Dakota’s gubernatorial contest. Sabato’s Crystal Ball just revised their rating of our race for Governor from Safe Republican to Likely Republican:

South Dakota, home to Mount Rushmore, has the longest streak of voting for Republican governors of any state in the country — four decades. The last Democrat to win a gubernatorial race there was Dick Kneip, who won a second term in 1974. Yet we are somewhat intrigued by the candidacy of state Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton (D), a former rodeo cowboy who was disabled from the waist down after a riding accident in 2007. Following Tuesday’s primary, Sutton will face Rep. Kristi Noem (R, SD-AL), who decisively defeated state Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) in a competitive primary. Noem is unquestionably the favorite, but this is also an open-seat race in a year where Democrats might have some national momentum and where Sutton might be a stronger candidate than South Dakota Democrats typically have, and some of our sources have taken notice of his potential. We’re moving this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican [Kyle Kondik, “Democrats Seem to Pass the Top-Two Test,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 2018.06.07].

I don’t think they make greeting cards for that: Congratulations on improving your chances from definitely gonna get beat to probably gonna get beat! But we know we’re flying into an asteroid field; never tell us Democrats the odds!

SCB emphasizes that they planned to upgrade Dems’ chances before the primary, so the change does not reflect any impression that Republicans picked the weaker candidate to challenge Sutton.

Sutton is campaigning and fundraising here in the Hub City today. I’ll post video of his Aberdeen town hall later today. Stay tuned!