South Dakotans have a great political nerd race ahead, as policy wonk Dusty Johnson claims the Republican nomination to challenge retired judge and wonky Democrat Tim Bjorkman for South Dakota’s lone U.S. House seat:
“We will have a discussion that will be based on the issues, and it will be positive,” Johnson said. “And it’s probably going to seem really boring for most of you” [Dana Ferguson and Rebekah Tuchscherer, “Dusty Johnson Wins GOP Nomination in Convincing Fashion,” that Sioux Falls paper, 2018.06.05].
Oh, Dusty, do—please bore us with nothing but voluminous policy papers. That’s exactly the race that Tim Bjorkman wants and that South Dakota needs. Give us C-SPAN, not Fox News!
The Johnson/Bjorkman U.S. House race is very different from the Noem/Sutton governor’s race. I said yesterday that GOP nominee Kristi Noem will need a new playbook for the general election campaign, because every advantage she pressed against Marty Jackley plays in Democrat Billie Sutton’s favor. Johnson’s primary advantage, that he’s a competent, non-radical policymaker, is pretty much what Tim Bjorkman is offering. But unlike Kristi, who will put on whatever gown wins her the beauty pageant, Johnson has an authenticity problem—that is, he has authenticity. He can’t pretend to be something he’s not. He couldn’t pretend to be a frothing Trumpist against the Trump karaoke played by his primary opponents Neal Tapio and Shantel Krebs, because every South Dakotan who’s watched him since he entered politics in 2004 knows he’s not, and luckily for him and for all of us, he didn’t need to be, since South Dakota’s Republican electorate didn’t ride the Trump train anywhere on Tuesday. Democrats have signaled they don’t want any radicals atop their ticket—otherwise, centrists Bjorkman and Sutton would have faced primary challenges from some Sanders Dems. Republicans sent the same signal in their House primary Tuesday. The electorate thus appears to be leaning toward both men’s honest strengths: policy over partisanship. The safest bet for Johnson and Bjorkman is thus to give the electorate what they want, be themselves, and let fly with an honest debate about policy alternatives.
While Trumpism didn’t show much advantage in the Republican primary, Bjorkman may be able to play Trump voters in November to his advantage—not the casual Trump voters, the Republicans who tolerate Trump because he won the White House and will sign the bills their Republican Congress passes, but the rabid Trump voters. Bjorkman can remind voters how bad Trump policies are for South Dakota, especially the impact of Trump’s reckless trade policy on South Dakota agriculture. That Trump/trade critique puts Johnson in a tight spot. In his primary debate on SDPB, Johnson implicitly criticized tariffs in his defense of free trade. Further Trump-criticism from Bjorkman will shake Johnson’s tightrope more, forcing Johnson to either adopt a level of Trumpism that doesn’t suit him, thus turning off the moderates, or to say what Bjorkman and the rest of us recognize, that Trump is wrong on trade, which declaration will depress the Trump Idiot Brigades and make them either stay home and not vote (thus raising the IQ of the electorate by ten points) or throw tantrum votes to Libertarian George Hendrickson or independent LaRouchian Ron Wieczorek. Put Johnson in that Trumpist vise, and the presumed gap between Democratic underdog Bjorkman and Republican overdog Johnson narrows.
Of course, I could overthinking it. Maybe Johnson and Bjorkman will simply have the policy debate which they are promising and at which they would be so good and South Dakotans will say, “Yup! Universal healthcare , smarter gun policy, and less top-heavy tax reform are better for South Dakota!” and elect Tim Bjorkman. Or maybe South Dakota voters will default to party labels no matter what and Bjorkman will barely break 40%.
But Tuesday’s primary-voting Republicans picked their best possible U.S. House candidate to offer South Dakotans an intelligent, policy-based debate against our decent, centrist Democrat Tim Bjorkman. Let’s hope Dusty and Tim live up to expectations, keep it clean, and talk about nothing but the policies they would support to protect us from Donald Trump’s impulsive predations.
“South Dakota’s Republican electorate didn’t ride the Trump train anywhere on Tuesday.”
Ummm….Kristi Noem did win the GOP primary for Governor, right?
“Or maybe South Dakota voters will default to party labels no matter what and Bjorkman will barely break 40%.”
This is the much more likely scenario, IMO. If he gets the same percentage that Paula Hawks got two years ago, he’ll be doing good.
According to one Mika B @ Morning Joe, Drumpf’s greatest frustration is his inability to watch porn in the White House. She and Joe were longtime insiders so she should probably know.
I noticed several headlines from California’s Tuesday primary that range from Dems performed well to Fake Noize Dem’s blue wave completely flopped.
Sounds like some outlets have an agenda.
Dem candidates usually have a solid message that parallels reality, like South Dakota is a government of one party corruption and healthcare for all is a right.
Who knows what wingnuts run on. Can’t be close to reality. That would be admitting they are corrupt and likely won’t change of their own volition.
With Bjorkman saying he will be bi-partisan, looks like we have 1.5 Republicans vying for the job.
That being said, Johnson will out fund-raise, out work, and out campaign him. With 90K more republicans than Democrats his odds look good.
Bjorkman is a very solid candidate for US House, but I’m afraid it’s going to take a miracle for him to win against Johnson. Johnson just isn’t polarizing enough to turn voters off and Bjorkman although a great candidate doesn’t have enough of a “story” to get voters to notice him. Fundraising will also prove to be an issue with Bjorkman. I might be all wrong on this, but that’s my feeling. No way SD votes in 2 Democrats in statewide races this year… which brings me to the governors race…
It’s going to be a barn burner. Billie Sutton is an extremely likeable, well educated, and experienced candidate. He has a story and it’s a story that a movie could be made about. He’s a tough cowboy and won’t back down. His views are moderate and in line with a great majority of South Dakotans. Noem has one big thing going for her and that is the R after her name, but that’s pretty much all she’s got. I feel this race will go far beyond simple party labels. The biggest thing Sutton can let voters know is that by not being part of the big state GOP machine he is free to put us South Dakotans first instead of putting the party machine first.
I’d prefer to think it’ll be 1.5 Democrats Greg. It’ll be a uphill battle for sure for Tim. He has to really tie Johnson in with Trump and Trump’s disastrous trade policies’
It’ll be easier if Mueller nails Trump before the election. If it’s proven that he colluded with the Russians South Dakotans will have to vote for Tim.
LS, I’m talking about situations where Republican primary voters had a choice. Noem and Jackley both cuddled up with Donald and his reckless radicalism, so their contest didn’t offer as clear an indicator of Trump’s power.
I’m digging for optimism, BH76, so consider: could it be that Dusty isn’t polarizing enough to turn voters on? Will the Trump base come out for a guy who just talks policy and doesn’t wave the Trump/Tapio/Klan banner? Will a non-polarizing candidate leave the quiet middle feeling more comfortable with voting for a centrist Democrat than they do when they have a polarizer like Noem screaming about Nancy Pelosi?
For once, I really like both candidates. Dusty is likely to get my vote, but Bjorkman is a fine person and intelligent speaker on the issues.
Mr. reitzel, are you suggesting that both fellows are 75% Democrats? Or perhaps that Mr. Dusty is 90% Republican but the 10% in him is uber-libbie, making a conglomerate rate of 75%?
That is an interesting theory. I can see Mr. Dusty having mostly mainstream Republican stances and then have this one, uber-libbie stance, that really gets a bunch of the left-of-moderate Democrats to vote for him.
grudznick predicts Mr. Dusty at 53%, Mr. Bjorkman at the rest. That’s like 6% lower or so.
Imagine. Campaigning on issues. Who’d a thunk it?
Cory… it’s good to be optimistic. Like I said Bjorkman is a solid candidate and he will do well, however he needs a lot of crossover votes to win. He has to keep all the Ds, get a majority of the Independents, and snag a good chunk of moderate Rs. That’s going to be tough against a pretty moderate R (at least in this day and age) like Johnson. Now had Tapio won… then yes he would have an excellent chance at winning.
With that said, I like your optimism. Keep it up!
Indeed, Hills, it’s a tradeoff. Moderation deflates the Trumpists; Trumpism deters the moderates. Which is the bigger draw?
How often do SDGOP primary voters pick moderates like Dusty for Congress? They did it in 2014, picking Rounds over Rhoden and Nelson… but in 2010, they picked Tea Party pretender Noem over Nelson.
Crossover voters will come with the right message. That message is healthcare!. Bah Zing! Crossover voters will be cross as hell when they see once again their premiums skyrocketing and their deductibles through the roof as well. Why send Dusty to Washington as he is not going to do anything but stay on the trump bandwagon. I personally spoke with him regarding healthcare and let me tell ya, he is not for it. He is perfectly fine with it rising and that my friends, is where Tim Bjorkman can shine like new money. The Democratic platform speaks loud and clear about affordable healthcare. All he has to do is beat the damn drum to get people’s attention and thereby, crossover voters. Like taking candy from a bubba.
Dusty and Kristie are completely out-classed by their democratic opponents. should be fun this time! sorry republicans, no more free wins.
I’ve spoken with Dusty a number of times, including an hour session of my debaters firing some tough questions at him. I was impressed with his wide array of knowledge, but I’ve never found him to be a policy wonk.
He’s clear on his political principles and he knows enough to role issues into that box, but he’s vague on specifics.
None the less, I think both races will be refreshingly interesting. I look forward to Sutton pushing Kristi into substantive debates, as well.
You KNOW the Dems are going to screw this up, just like they always do. So we’ll be stuck with more Gropey, Grabby, and Rapey in Washington.
Hmm, what other perverted dwarfs will get elected or appointed? Leery, Flashy, Pokey, and Freaky.
How exactly are Dems to screw this up? Just show up and vote, folks.
Madsen Rollis … I don’t seem to find anyone by your name in USA. Are you sure you’re not a “bot”?
Actually, I am a ghost from Vermillion, South Dakota’s spooky past. USD PhD alum, class of 2006. Having watched American elections for fifty years, I keep seeing the Democratic Party commit the same dumb errors again and again, seldom learning anything.
We don’t fight hard enough. We acquiesce to voter suppression. We keep nominating weak candidates and career politicians. Our candidates never seem to offer anything new or relatable. And so we get stuck with loudmouths like Reagan, Bush, and Trump again and again.
Not that it matters, but this manufactured “voter fraud” fad has gotten ridiculous. For the first time in eighteen years, Clay County, South Dakota has asked for my IDs and PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP, so I let ‘em have it. Then they sent my absentee ballot to my old address in Vermillion. Wait, what? If I were still in Vermillion, why would I need an absentee ballot?
Ultimately, I had to phone them FIVE TIMES to get them to send me my ballot. I even threatened to jump in to my 1986 Honda CRXsi and drive all the way back to Vermintown this November. #votersuppression
Madsen Rollis … Did you submit a change of address to the Vermillion post office or to your new post office? You claim to be a “ghost” and my research shows your identity to be shaded at best. Being a shadow doesn’t facilitate timely mail delivery.
@Porter Lansing: Not that it’s anybody’s business, but I do not use my American name on the net. For obvious reasons.
But YES, I do know how to submit forwarding addresses. And YES, I am a genuine Clay County voter and a genuine USD Coyote. I still miss Vermillion and I’m still trying to get back home.
I agree, Mr. Ghost. I too loved Vermillion. Everything about being a Coyote. Having to leave when I was drafted to military involuntary servitude during Vietnam has left a lasting impression … and not a good one.
The present white nationalist terrorist attacks in Pennsylvania on a Synagogue and the pipe bombs sent to those who happen to disagree politically with trump, should make it clear that change is needed. There will not be change with Dirty Johnson in Washington, there will be worse. The only thing Johnson has done is watch over corruption scandals in South Dakota and do nothing about them. Johnson would be worse in Washington. He proved that with his exposure to the Russian woman he sold us out for.