SD Per Capita Personal Income up 0.2% in 2016, Behind National Growth

A couple weeks ago, John Tsitrian presented the surprising data that, under the Daugaard Administration, South Dakota’s per capita GDP growth has averaged a meager 0.04%* annual growth rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis presents another statistic, per capita personal income, on which South Dakota appears to be lagging. According to data released this month, in 2016, South Dakota’s per capita personal income grew just 0.4%, well below the national average of 2.5% in metro areas and 1.0% non-metro areas.

Per capita personal income fell in 45 South Dakota counties in 2016 and rose in only 21 counties.

	Per capita income				Percent change from preceding period
	Dollars			Rank in State	Percent change		Rank in State
	2014	2015	2016	2016	2015	2016	2016
South Dakota	45,921	47,665	47,834	—	3.8	0.4	—
Aurora	48,581	48,241	44,595	31	-0.7	-7.6	54
Beadle	44,947	48,488	51,081	12	7.9	5.3	2
Bennett	29,473	29,035	27,250	59	-1.5	-6.1	48
Bon Homme	34,548	35,353	36,355	54	2.3	2.8	7
Brookings	41,948	43,543	43,111	40	3.8	-1.0	28
Brown	46,962	49,116	48,978	18	4.6	-0.3	26
Brule	45,910	44,761	41,694	43	-2.5	-6.9	52
Buffalo	23,018	24,018	22,675	65	4.3	-5.6	47
Butte	33,953	33,821	33,108	56	-0.4	-2.1	32
Campbell	49,137	44,676	42,612	41	-9.1	-4.6	43
Charles Mix	41,949	41,648	39,670	48	-0.7	-4.7	44
Clark	51,267	44,229	43,386	35	-13.7	-1.9	31
Clay	34,972	35,732	37,265	53	2.2	4.3	4
Codington	41,333	43,286	43,235	38	4.7	-0.1	22
Corson	29,703	26,868	23,877	60	-9.5	-11.1	59
Custer	41,497	43,108	43,420	34	3.9	0.7	17
Davison	46,370	49,677	49,614	16	7.1	-0.1	23
Day	42,417	43,051	43,296	36	1.5	0.6	19
Deuel	51,679	52,022	50,703	13	0.7	-2.5	33
Dewey	38,491	34,512	33,250	55	-10.3	-3.7	39
Douglas	55,806	57,308	54,674	9	2.7	-4.6	42
Edmunds	47,428	44,289	43,136	39	-6.6	-2.6	34
Fall River	43,508	43,822	43,856	33	0.7	0.1	21
Faulk	50,425	42,133	41,008	46	-16.4	-2.7	35
Grant	53,672	63,810	63,632	4	18.9	-0.3	25
Gregory	43,295	43,588	41,187	45	0.7	-5.5	46
Haakon	55,887	48,515	44,719	29	-13.2	-7.8	55
Hamlin	37,716	38,081	38,770	50	1.0	1.8	9
Hand	53,863	47,784	46,997	21	-11.3	-1.6	30
Hanson	64,004	63,114	60,596	7	-1.4	-4.0	40
Harding	63,451	54,643	46,263	24	-13.9	-15.3	64
Hughes	47,152	48,719	49,892	15	3.3	2.4	8
Hutchinson	48,214	49,092	50,502	14	1.8	2.9	6
Hyde	51,355	48,953	45,683	27	-4.7	-6.7	51
Jackson	28,377	24,796	22,718	64	-12.6	-8.4	57
Jerauld	48,767	48,635	45,559	28	-0.3	-6.3	49
Jones	59,886	55,761	47,662	20	-6.9	-14.5	62
Kingsbury	47,764	47,561	49,160	17	-0.4	3.4	5
Lake	53,352	55,705	53,278	10	4.4	-4.4	41
Lawrence	42,325	44,142	44,670	30	4.3	1.2	15
Lincoln	58,599	62,931	63,203	5	7.4	0.4	20
Lyman	38,963	44,674	37,577	52	14.7	-15.9	65
McCook	44,944	46,257	46,135	25	2.9	-0.3	24
McPherson	39,856	38,314	32,800	57	-3.9	-14.4	61
Marshall	47,317	47,085	43,286	37	-0.5	-8.1	56
Meade	37,808	38,898	39,190	49	2.9	0.8	16
Mellette	30,598	27,274	23,106	63	-10.9	-15.3	63
Miner	43,716	44,683	44,126	32	2.2	-1.2	29
Minnehaha	47,941	50,458	51,167	11	5.3	1.4	11
Moody	46,719	48,285	46,738	23	3.4	-3.2	37
Oglala Lakota	23,509	23,033	23,194	62	-2.0	0.7	18
Pennington	45,104	46,199	46,755	22	2.4	1.2	14
Perkins	42,914	39,678	38,373	51	-7.5	-3.3	38
Potter	100,412	87,411	76,181	3	-12.9	-12.8	60
Roberts	31,756	32,858	32,605	58	3.5	-0.8	27
Sanborn	42,586	43,912	40,719	47	3.1	-7.3	53
Spink	47,706	47,703	48,318	19	0.0	1.3	12
Stanley	61,905	66,790	62,522	6	7.9	-6.4	50
Sully	78,287	59,795	56,833	8	-23.6	-5.0	45
Todd	24,250	24,270	23,582	61	0.1	-2.8	36
Tripp	47,394	45,218	41,322	44	-4.6	-8.6	58
Turner	52,760	67,202	76,806	2	27.4	14.3	1
Union	84,092	94,025	98,329	1	11.8	4.6	3
Walworth	42,749	42,011	42,522	42	-1.7	1.2	13
Yankton	42,932	45,051	45,748	26	4.9	1.5	10
Ziebach	25,058	19,963	16,681	66	-20.3	-16.4	66

The five counties with the highest per capita personal income in 2016 were Union, Turner, Potter, Grant, and Lincoln. The five poorest counties were Ziebach, Buffalo, Jackson, Mellette, and Oglala Lakota. On average, each person in richest Union County made 2.1 times as much money as the state average and 5.9 times as much as each person in poorest Ziebach County.

I larkishly wondered if those income figures might have any correlation with how South Dakotans voted in 2016. I find a statistically significant but weak positive correlation between 2016 per capita personal income and the margin by which Trump beat Clinton in each county. The 2016 increase or decrease in personal income does not provide a strong or reliable correlation with the Trump margin. In plain English, Trump did a little better in the South Dakota counties where people were making the most money; whether counties were making more money or less than in 2015 didn’t appear to affect their vote.

*Correction 16:43 MST: I originally referred to 0.2% as the annual growth rate, but as Mr. Tsitrian himself reminds me in his comment below, his calculations produced 0.2% per capita GDP growth over five years. I have corrected the lead-in stat to reflect Mr. Tsitrian’s attentive analysis. I apologize for the error.