DFP Ballot Measure Predictions: 3 Yes, 7 No

Here’s my pure speculation on the results of voting on South Dakota’s ballot measures today:

Constitutional Amendments:

  • Amendment R: Regents/vo-tech authority split (proposed by Legislature 2015)—YES 62%
  • Amendment S: Glodt’s crime victims bill of rights—NO 52%
  • Amendment T: Independent Redistricting Commission—YES 58%
  • Amendment U: Usury! Payday Lender Protection Clause—NO 75%
  • Amendment V: Open Nonpartisan Primary—NO 51%

Initiated Measures:

Referred Laws:

Note that I’m predicting results contrary to my desires on three measures: V, 22, and 23. SDGOP propaganda plus honest division among Democratic voters makes V a tough sell. The Koch Brothers ad blitz plus 70 sections of complications will push votes against 22. Labor rights are a tough sell in South Dakota, so 23 is unlikely to push through.

Labor rights plus anger at the Novstrups’ affront to voters will push 20 to defeat by a larger margin than Initiated Measure 18, the minimum wage increase, passed in 2014. Plenty of conservative voters will vote for 20, but no one has worked to win a majority vote.

Voters will see through the payday lenders’ bushwah, which started too late to overcome to bad press payday lenders brought on themselves with their sneaky tactics. U will go down harder than 21 will go up, since there are conservatives who will reject the payday lenders dirty trick of U but still resist the regulation of 21.

The biggest margin will be against 19, which has been defended with such laughably bad arguments by Republicans that their meager efforts have probably driven more votes against the bill.

All of the above results are subject to change if you get out and vote!

Bonus Predictions: Trump wins South Dakota, but Gary Johnson keeps him under 50%.

Outrage over the youth minimum wage, Al Novstrup’s fourteen years in Pierre, fatigue from Al’s negative attacks, my hard work, and the support of so many of you readers overcome all the disadvantages a liberal Democrat should face in a South Dakota election and hand me the District 3 Senate seat by five votes. Novstrup demands a recount, and my margin climbs to seven. In other words, every vote counts! Get out and vote!

5 Responses to DFP Ballot Measure Predictions: 3 Yes, 7 No

  1. Jason Sebern

    Good luck Cory!

  2. Thanks, Jason!

    Worth noting: even Pat Powers, who has had little to say about the ballot measures besides what his sponsors feed him to advance their goals, admits that the Republicans who voted for Referred Laws 19 and 20 have failed to give any good reasons to vote for them.

  3. I think the three you picked to pass are most likely but I think the margins will be smaller. Too many people told me they have mixed feelings on those three. And No gets the tie.

    I think you have it about right on Trump- around 50% and depends on Johnson.

  4. Troy, on R, I’ll be surprised if the margin is smaller. There’s been no organized resistance of any sort. The casual press is all positive. What would drive enough uncertainty to overcome the concerted efforts of the Governor and the Chamber?

  5. Let’s see, how close was I? How where was the actual YES vote compared to my prediction, and did the result flip my call?

    R: –11
    S: +12 (flip!)
    T: –15 (flip!)
    U: +12
    V: +4
    21: +11
    22: +12 (flip!)
    23: +14
    19: –9
    20: –10

    My numbers were nuts, but I was wrong on 3. What was the spread in Deadwood?

    (My bonus predictions: ha! I grossly underestimated the Trumpist surge… just like the rest of the media.)