Right after the primary, I cautiously reasoned that in the Rhoden/Doeden runoff, Governor Larry Rhoden could win 70% of voters who backed Congressman Dusty Johnson in the gubernatorial primary and 60% of Speaker Jon Hansen’s voters. Emerson College’s pre-runoff poll indicates Johnson’s and Hansen’s voters are breaking even bigger for Rhoden:
“Larry Rhoden appears to have picked up momentum after finishing behind Doeden in the June primary,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Voters who supported Dusty Johnson in the primary are nearly all breaking for Rhoden, driving his support, while Doeden has not picked up much support from groups other than those who already supported him last month.”
Those who supported Rep. Dusty Johnson in the primary break for Rhoden over Doeden, 95% to 5%. Majorities of Rhoden primary voters (96%) and Doeden primary voters (87%) stick with their candidate in the runoff election. Jon Hansen voters also support Rhoden over Doeden, 69% to 31% [“South Dakota 2026 Poll: Larry Rhoden Leads Toby Doeden for Runoff Election,” Emerson College Polling, 2026.07.15].
Rhoden is also holding his base better than Doeden, not by much, but enough to show the advantage of incumbency and long experience in South Dakota Republican politics.
Oh well, South Dakotans don’t seem to know the advantages of a used car salesman.