When the last pre-primary poll that KELO-TV had Emerson College conduct showed Aberdeen loudmouth and first-time candidate Toby Doeden leading Congressman Dusty Johnson, Governor Larry Rhoden, and Speaker Jon Hansen, I thought the Republican voters responding to the poll were losing their minds. But I saw no obvious reason to doubt the poll, and neither did Toby Doeden:
Emerson College’s May poll wasn’t too far off. Doeden won the primary with 31% of the vote. Johnson won the 23% of the primary vote that the poll suggested, but Rhoden finished second with 25% of the vote. Hansen finished last, as Emerson suggested, winning 21% of the vote.
KELO-TV has just released its latest Emerson College poll on the gubernatorial runoff. This poll, conducted July 12–`13 among 500 likely Republican runoff voters, shows the disappointed Johnson and Hansen voters swinging hard for Rhoden:
If the July 28 Republican election for governor were held today, Gov. Larry Rhoden would win by a resounding margin, according to the latest KELOLAND/Emerson College Poll.
The poll shows 62% of likely Republican voter would choose Rhoden, while 32% would choose Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden. There are 7% of Republican voters still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 4.3%.
Poll respondents who did not choose Rhoden or Doeden in the June 2 primary overwhelmingly switched to Rhoden in this poll.
Rhoden gained a significant amount of voters who had selected U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson in the June 2 primary. The poll shows that 95% of those who voted for Johnson in the primary indicated that they would vote for Rhoden. Only 5% indicated Doeden.
State Rep. Jon Hansen voters chose Rhoden over Doeden 69% to 31%, respectively.
If undecided voters are included the margin is 65% for Rhoden and 35% for Doeden [Rae Yost, “Republicans Picking Rhoden by Wide Margin in New Poll,” KELO-TV, updated 2026.07.16].
This July poll appears to confirm Retailers’ lobbyist Nathan Sanderson’s thesis that Doeden would have trouble adding much to the 31% he scored in the primary amidst a Republican electorate that largely signaled on June 2 a desire to return to normalcy, not outsider whackiness.
This July poll now makes Doeden forget how much he trusted Emerson in May:
No, Toby, you don’t get to play that way. The March poll, three months out from the primary, reflected voters who maybe hadn’t tuned in to the primary yet. It’s perfectly plausible that Emerson found voters not as interested in you in March as they might have been once they started paying more attention in May. This July poll comes just a couple weeks before the vote, just like the May primary poll that you liked so much.
But as usual, like a good Trumpist, Doeden will say anything to preserve his narrative, regardless of what he’s said in the past.