Independent commentator Rick Knobe is pretty sure Toby Doeden won’t survive the runoff, because Doeden’s basically a jerk:
Toby, you do NOT sound like a statesman, you do NOT sound like a politician, you DO sound like what is commonly called a “political hack.”
Yes, you have plenty of supporters. Some people are drawn to your type of behavior.
However, the 70 percent who didn’t vote for you are probably not going to vote for you July 28. Too many insults, no actual plans to deal with running our state, except you say, “I’m going to fix it.”
Your language is NOT going to lead to victory, even in your own party.
I know many people who have now registered Republican. Not to support you, but to vote for your opponent. They don’t want your type of politics leading our state.
I don’t know what your childhood was like. Were you bullied? Or were you the bully?
You can’t change what happened to you or what you did. You can change what you do.
So far, all I have seen is aggressive, punitive, mean-spirited behavior. The behavior of a bully.
That is not going to work in South Dakota [Rick Knobe, “Toby Doeden a Problem-Creator, Not a Problem-Solver,” South Dakota Standard, 2026.07.15].
I hope Rick’s right… but South Dakotans have picked a bullying sexual predator over much nicer problem-solvers for President three times in a row. South Dakota voters picked power-hungry negative campaigner Kristi Noem over more qualified problem-solvers (Nelson, Herseth-Sandlin, Varilek, Hawks, Jackley, Sutton, Smith) on multiple statewide ballots.
Knobe is right in his assessment of Doeden’s character. But he may be overly optimistic in his read of the character of South Dakota voters.
Nobody is independent and Republican is just another word for Earth hater.