The Census Bureau reported yesterday that there were 331,449,281 human beings in America as of April 1, 2020. Since the 2021 Census, that’s a gain of 22.3 million people. By April 1, 2021, coronavirus had killed 2.48% of that ten-year gain.
The 0.71% annual growth rate in the U.S. population shown by the 2020 Census figures should have resulted in 2.37 million more Americans by April 1, 2021. Coronavirus has killed 23.3% of that projected growth.
The United States probably has many more people than counted in the Census managed by the previous administration, which hated both people and counting. One sure sign is the count of Americans living overseas. In 2010, directed by a competent President, the Census Bureau counted 1.04 million Americans living overseas. In 2020, saddled with management determined to rush and sandbag the results, the Census found only 350,000 Americans living overseas. But we have to work with the numbers the Census gives us.
The Census found 1,103 South Dakotans living overseas in 2020, down from 5,581 in 2010. But overall South Dakota grew a little faster than the nation as a whole, gaining 68,009 people for a rise of 8.30%. That rate should have increased our population by 7,076 this year, but we let coronavirus kill off over 27% of that projected growth.
Minnesota grew only by 7.43%, close to the national rate, but they added 394,873 people, almost six times as many as South Dakota added. North Dakota had the biggest boom in the region, thanks surely to the Bakken oil fields, adding 90,991 people for growth of 15.36% and a total of 779,702 people. Wyoming had the lowest population growth in the seven-state region, growing only 1.66% over the past decade and adding just 9,419 people. Wyoming remains the only state in the U.S. with fewer than 600,000 people (577,719, to be exact).
Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, and Vermont remain the only states with fewer than one million people. Montana left the sixers club, climbing from 994,416 in 2010 to 1,085,407 in 2020, a ten-year growth rate of 9.15%. For its prodigious recruiting and reproduction, Montana gets a second House seat.
Each Montana House member will thus have to represent only 542,704 constituents, the best Congress critter-to-resident ratio (but those Montana Reps will have to drive all over kingdom come to meet those constituents, so the work balances out). Delaware is stuck with just one House member representing 990,837 people, the worst ratio in the U.S. (but they have a guy in the White House, so again, things balance out). On average, each member of the 2022 House will represent 761,169 people based on the 2020 count, up from 710,767 in the 2010 count.
Only three states actually lost population over the last decade: West Virginia, Mississippi, and Illinois. Mississippi won’t lose a House member, but West Virginia and Illinois, along with Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and California. Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida join Montana in one-upsmanship; Texas adds two Reps.
The obvious conclusion to which we might jump from those figures is that Republican states will enjoy a net gain in House seats and Electoral College votes. But that growth could signal more opportunity for Democrats to turn those states blue:
Meanwhile, Americans continue to move to GOP-run states. For now, that shift provides the Republicans with the opportunity to shape new congressional districts to maximize the influence of their voters and have a major advantage in upcoming elections — possibly enough to win back control of the U.S. House.
But in the long term, it’s not clear the migration is good news for Republicans. Many of the fastest growing states are increasingly competitive political battlegrounds where the new arrivals — including many young people and people of color — could at some point give Democrats an edge.
“What’s happening is growth in Sunbelt states that are trending Democratic or will soon trend Democratic,” Frey said.
That means Republicans may be limited in how many favorable seats they can draw as Democrats move to their territory.
“It’s going to be harder and harder for the Texas Legislature to gerrymander advantageous congressional districts” for Republicans, said William Fulton, director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University in Houston. “Texas hasn’t flipped blue yet as a state, but the blue population centers are growing really fast” [Mike Schneider and Nicholas Riccardi, “US Marks Slowest Population Growth Since the Depression,” AP, 2021.04.27].
By the way, New York would have kept the one House seat it’s losing if just 89 more New Yorkers had filled out their Census form. Fill out your forms, people!
Those wildly varying district sizes show that we need to expand the House of Representatives. It hasn’t been done in a century, and now House reps represent absurdly huge numbers of people, more than some senators used to represent back in the day. There’s no justifiable reason for there being a 400,000 population difference between some districts. More reps mean representation more responsive to the people, not functioning like mini-senators, having to spend all their time fundraising for the next election in their huge districts.
Cory, I would be interested in a spread sheet comparing 2010 and 2020 showing SD county population growth/loss. Then let the speculation begin on the legislative district gerrymandering.
Good idea. Expansion will be needed.
DC as a state, 2 Senators (100 to 102), 1 Representative. Abolish the slave owning States filibuster and Electoral college welfare.
We will make it to the 21st Century, somehow soon!
George Jetton showed us the 2 hour work week. We will get there!
Productivity on the work floor got us into this current system. Living the great idea gets us the 2 hour workweek, and 100,000 to $365,000 a year lowest allowable wage!
Rapid has grown by about 15,000 and greater Sioux Falls by about 45,000 since 2010. There’s 60,000 of the 68,00o right there.
More generally: The greater Black Hills and the Watertown-to-Tea strip along I-29 are booming. Aberdeen is holding its own. Much of the white part of the rest of the state is emptying out.
George Jetson
The overseas count was hit hard by COVID and Trump hatred of projecting American competency. During Trump’s term there was a shrinkage of the State Department personnel posted overseas. On top of that there was a big rush home from China and Europe of more embassy and consulate personnel, journalists, business folks, students, etc. during the initial COVID outbreaks, and most didn’t return. My daughter reports that many of her friends left China during that early outbreak period.
Joe pointed out the facts. Much of South Dakota is dying, but it’s been doing that slowly since the 1910’s.
Cory, what you don’t mention is that those red states that are blue growing will simply gerrymander the areas. The Supreme Court has basically said that’s fine. Those pubs are desperately holding on as long as they can.
Nick, as I understand from NPR, the Census Bureau is still running the local data through quality control. We may not get those numbers until August. But I share your keen interest in learning how many counties lost population and which lucky few gained.
Just to irritate Republicans, it’s common practice in blue states to encourage out of state students and workers in red states to vote where they live and not vote absentee in their blue home state.
Do MAGAS see that as voter fraud?
I surely hope so.
Has a brief conversation earlier this week with a co-worker who lives in Belle Fourche in which he complained that people from East Coast and West Coast states are moving into the ills and trying to change the culture to reflect the way things were done where they came from. Irony of ironies as he moved there from Minnesota just 7 years ago.
Mr. Schriever – Your friend, who’s become radicalized with selfishness for what rightfully belongs to The Lacotah is certainly not alone in his false possession complex.
From Die Frau-er Noem, today.
Argus Leader
Gov. Kristi Noem on state’s new residents: “You can come be with South Dakota, you just can’t change us.”