Democratic candidate for U.S. House Tim Bjorkman has stated unequivocally that the Trump tariffs are hurting South Dakota agriculture. His Republican opponent, Dusty Johnson, agrees in principle. But whereas Bjorkman has called for immediate Congressional action to end the tariffs, Johnson practices passivity, letting Trump have his way with our farmers.
Johnson reiterated his wishy-washiness in Madison Thursday, peddling his wish that our wash-out White House is really trying to do the right thing:
When asked about his positions on international trade and recent increased tariffs on imported goods to the United States, Johnson said he supports free trade. According to Johnson, President Trump was most-likely using tariffs on imported goods as a bargaining tool.
“I’m hoping that that will mean better things for producers and manufacturers,” Johnson said.
Johnson said he expects short-term pain and a long-term win for the United States is relation to trade agreements [Chuck Clement, “House Candidate Dusty Johnson Discusses Free Trade, Tariffs,” Madison Daily Leader, 2018.08.10].
Thus defending Trump’s big-government interference in free trade, Johnson then decries big-government interference in free trade:
Despite a slump in grain prices for U.S. farmers, Johnson said that the United States was a primary source of quality soybeans for international markets.
“What gets into the way of foreign trade are other countries trying to protect their own interests,” Johnson said.
According to Johnson, the United State should protect some of its interests, such as domestic food production. However, in the area of free trade, he said, “Why should government get in the way?” [Clement, 2018.08.10]
We can only hope Dusty will plug his free-market impulses into this analysis which says tariffs only make things worse long-term by stifling competition:
Over a longer period, whether countries retaliate or not, consumers in the country that imposes the tariffs become much worse off. If countries do not retaliate, companies have less fear of foreign competitors entering their home market. If countries do retaliate, companies have fewer opportunities to expand overseas. Either way, businesses in the home market have less motivation to come up with new ideas. “You are shielding them from international competition,” [economist Ufuk] Akcigit said, “so they become lazier.”
This is the opposite of the argument from the White House. “We may have a little bit of short-term pain, but we’re certainly going to have long-term success,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters in April [Amy Merrick, “Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan,” The Atlantic, 2018.06.11].
Instead of waiting for Dusty Johnson to quit parroting Sarah Huckabee Sanders and figure out which side of the tariff debate he’s on, let’s just elect Tim Bjorkman, who knows what to do: reclaim Congress’s Constitutional authority over trade, end the tariffs, and get South Dakota’s farmers back fully into the foreign markets on which their livelihood depends.
Cory,
USDA predicts record soybean exports despite China trade dispute
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-soybeans-exports/usda-predicts-record-soybean-exports-despite-china-trade-dispute-idUSKBN1IB2WU
Soybean farmers are surviving Trump’s trade war — even without his $12 billion aid package
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/soybean-farmers-are-surviving-trumps-trade-war–even-without-his-12-billion-aid-package/2018/07/30/c3340bb6-91bb-11e8-8322-b5482bf5e0f5_story.html?utm_term=.983668792245
Wow Dusty, just wow. The Republican Party is now the party of mindless protectionism. Whatever happened to the free trade party and government needs to get out of the way of commerce? Mr. Johnson has just shown he has all the fortitude and conviction of belief of an overcooked noodle.
I never thought I would see the day when my entire Congressional delegation and the leading candidate to fill the empty South Dakota seat in Congress would so blatantly and unrepentantly sell agriculture down the river.
Thanks, thanks for nothing. It’s a good thing my wife has a job in town.
I don’t think Jason read the articles he linked.
The Reuters article says the USDA (a federal government executive branch agency run by a Trump appointee) predicts record soybean sales, but commodity traders don’t believe the predictions at all – basically calling the Trumpian predictions fake news.
The Washington Post article says soybean prices have dropped dramatically since the tariffs were announced, but many farmers haven’t taken a hit yet either because they were locked into long term contracts before the tariffs, or because they haven’t sold yet. Those who haven’t contracted yet are screwed and will either have to take a big hit or hold onto their crops indefinitely waiting for prices to recover.
Neither one of these articles has good news for either Jason’s hero Trump or for farmers. Jason must have some cognitive difficulties if he thinks these articles help him score an points.
Neither one
Nick,
When did the USA have free trade with China?
Why do you only care about yourself instead of America?
The Netherlands has stepped up and bought your soybeans.
The price has to do with the record crop prediction. It’s supply and demand.
Here are quotes from the Reuters article that Jason linked above:
“They are really strong on soybean exports and I am very skeptical of that,” Seifried said about the USDA.
“U.S. soybean exports projected to increase a large 225 million bushels might be flat out just wrong,” Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst
Somebody that works for Trump at USDA lying?! Uh Oh!
Jason too stupid to read articles before he links them?! Uh Oh!
One guy is skeptical. I can’t believe Reuters found a skeptic. lol
Some people are just a little slow on the uptake. Jason linked an article that undermines the point he’s trying to make, and now he’s trying to discredit the article he linked. Uh Oh!
I’m discrediting the “one” guy they interviewed. You really are slow Rorschach.
Dusty has been chosen and groomed by the Pub Club in Pierre for years to represent SD in Congress. He will be a future Senator and possible Governor also.
Remember this is the same guy that ran the PUC for years and resigned to work for Daugaard. He also worked for Mike Rounds. Once you’re in the Club, cushy jobs are everywhere that you get to resign from one to move to another when you get bored.
Also, no response from Dusty when dozens of farmers or more lost thousands of dollars from the grain elevator scandals in Redfield and DeSmet. For someone that ran the PUC from 2004-2011, he should have some accountability along with Chris Nelson. There will be other PUC scandals to follow, mark my work. No Oversight in SD.
Give it up, Jason. You are not going to try and tell Nick, a farmer, that these tariffs are good for him.
Yes please, let’s hurry up and capitulate so we can get back to the normal; 8% tariff on our soys, market barriers to our products entering China, deceptive trade techniques, intellectual theft and currency manipulation.
By all means give power to Bjorkman to return the status quo.
Bet we could have a record record record export if Drumpf’s shenanigans manage to drive prices lower for farmers.
I find it inexplicable people still believe Drumpf could negotiate his way out of a wet paper sack. He is as useful as the mammary apparati on boars.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/25/opinion/letters/trump-farmers-tariffs.html
Interesting reads.
Dusty Johnson has this issue surrounded.
Countries protecting their own interests = bad
Countries protecting their own interests = good
Countries protecting their own interests = nah, just stay out of the way
Free Trade = good
Trump Tariffs = good eventually
Getting on all sides of the issue = Doin’ the Dusty Dance
There must be a meme for that on the internet.
If the USDA figures have any credence, couldn’t we argue that farmers would be making even more money if the tariffs weren’t cutting them off from a major buyer?
Dusty Johnson IS wishy-washy! That must be why the rallying cry for him on the wrong-side is, “Nobody will outwork Dusty.” If you refuse to take up a cause and spend the campaign sitting on the fence, all you get is slivers in your rump.
Jason, with the vandalism spree in Belle Fourche making state wide news, you should worry more about what’s going on where you live.
Is part of the dissonance between those favorable to the trade war and those who are not your class: investor class or producer class? Producers have less ability to “ride things out”; investors have the latitude to play the market.
Harley Davidson thinks so highly of the Comrade Dusty/trump tariffs that they moved some production to the EU. How about that for winning. Now trumpers want to boycott an American company, the new republican way…get used to it..or put Tim in to help end this nonsense.
I guess that’s what happens, O, when some people make their living making money instead of making things.
“I’m hoping that that will mean better things for producers and manufacturers,” Johnson said.
It seems to me that running an economy on Hopes is not a very sound business model.
Nobody wants to discuss the Netherlands who overtook China in buying soybeans last month?
Jason, you make me laugh with your understanding of soybean markets. The 1.4 billion person market that is China and that buys 2/3 of US soybean production will be replaced by 17 million people of The Netherlands? You are drunk on Trump Kool-aid. Go spend a day or two pulling escaped weeds out in a bean field then come back and talk to us.
Nick,
Who was buying the Brazilian soybeans when China wasn’t buying from them?
I never said the Netherlands would replace China, you did.
I did say the Netherlands over took China last month. They were the second largest buyer of Soybeans.
Workers transport imported soybean products at a port in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China March 22, 2018.
Reuters
Workers transport imported soybean products at a port in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China March 22, 2018.
Demand for U.S. soybeans remains strong, regardless of worries China could target the crop in retaliation over Trump administration tariffs.
China has canceled several shipments of U.S. soybeans in the last month, raising questions over whether the country is taking preemptive action against the U.S. by reducing purchases. But analysts say the reduction is a minor amount and is not that surprising from a seasonal perspective.
The “U.S. accounts for 37 percent of total soybean exports throughout the world. Beyond Brazil, there’s really nobody else,” said Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale, an agricultural market research and trading firm.
“Despite the trade concerns, there’s really nobody else. You’re just simply not going to have a massive decline in U.S. soybean exports,” he said.
Chinese cancellations of U.S. soybean orders for the week ended April 26 resulted in a decline of 133,700 metric tons in net sales to China, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data showed Thursday.
But 66,000 metric tons of those soybeans were sent to Vietnam instead, the data showed.
Meanwhile, the U.S. sold 82,700 metric tons of soybeans in new sales to Mexico, 68,800 to Taiwan, 60,000 to Argentina and 52,600 to the Netherlands. Although Argentina is the third-largest exporter of soybeans, a severe drought has reduced production by 7 million tons to 40 million, according to USDA estimates.
It isn’t really the amount we export, it is the lowering prices farmers are getting that has them worried.
This one is for you mfi, from the Iowa State Fair. A better way to use butter? Who knows, but these are way cool. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/picture-gallery/news/2018/08/03/butter-cow-ready-2018-iowa-state-fair/900550002/
I got three flyers in yesterdays mail regarding retirement farm sales in eastern South Dakota. The thing that stood out on the machinery was the age, most from 2012. I think that if ag producers are looking for machinery buy ups, they will go to these retirement auctions as the new stuff is pretty proudly priced.
If you own your place and are debt free, you are probably gonna be able to hang on, if not, you’re gonna be screwed. Banks are only gonna be your buddy for so long and as they read the tea leaves, that may be sooner than you think.
I was also thinking about the mindset of the vulture capitalists — if a company (or farm) fails, that is an opportunity to swoop in and grab it for pennies on the dollar. If farmers are driven under by tariffs, they still hold valuable assets (land, equipment . . .) which creates the opportunity for a swoop in for investors who have weathered the “temporary storm” of the tariffs.
I am not making the argument that these tariffs are an investor class attach on the producer/worker class, but I do think how one sees the world affects how you perceive the level of harm or threat economic turns present. Trump and his advisors are not workers/producers, don’t expect him/them to think or sympathize. When he/they say, “It will all wok out in the end . . ” know that the completion of that sentence is, “for us (the investor class).”
Jerry … good butter cow, this fair.
o, what you say is true. You can see that with how many acres are under till from the large investors like insurance companies and Wall Street investors https://www.motherjones.com/food/2014/03/land-grabs-not-just-africa-anymore/
This kind of gives you an idea from 20 years ago and rising like the seas https://www.csmonitor.com/1988/1220/fland.html
Ag producer voters play right into the hands of those who are lifting their livelihoods while they prattle on about God and guns and whatever the pie of the day is.
Jason, stop trying to gaslight me. I’ll quote directly from your comment which was the fourth comment on this thread, “The Netherlands has stepped up and bought your soybeans.”
Here is a list of buyers of US soybeans. The Netherlands is in eight place. Mexico is number two. China really was the 800 pound gorilla in the list.
http://www.nopa.org/resources/datafacts/top-10-destinations-for-u-s-soybean-exports/
The October delivery price for soybeans at the ADM terminal in Harrold closed today at $7.49, on May 29 just prior to all the Trump tariff crap hitting the fan it was $9.51. Down just over $2 in 2.5 months. On 40bu/acre beans that is $80.80/acre. Trump sucked all the profit out. Thanks a lot.
I’ll make sure when I get my grain check to tell ADM that “Jason” said I shouldn’t worry, soybeans are fungible and it will all work out, so where is my other $2.02/bu? They will be receptive to that logic.
Mr. Nemec, Comrade Jason must have received his $4,000.00 bonus from the tax cut so he is full of himself. Hey, wait a minute, where is my $4,000.00 average bonus money? Gone, like flatulence in the wind. It is non existent much like trade deals that pay farmers and ranchers the real value of their products.
You should focus on corn or wheat, Mr. Nemec. There’s ethanol plants popping up in your neck of the woods all the time, and everybody likes wheat.
NIck,
You posted 2014 ranks. That doesn’t tell us anything.
You never answered my Brazil question.
Prices drop for grains. Loot at what happened in 2014 to soybeans. It’s supply and demand.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data
You should have contracted earlier this year. That is your marketing failure.
If Clinton, Bush, and Obama would have taken care of the problem earlier, Trump wouldn’t have had to do this.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/trump-picks-up-baton-from-obama-in-crushing-china-steel-imports
Obama did it first, Drumpf is a Donnie come lately to steel tariff parade.
and yet trade deficit with China grew right under Drumpf’s bibulous nose.
Jason … your link is meaningless. Show a trend of what happens when a trade war is underway.
Fair enough Jason, I should have clicked around a bit more for the most current data.
http://www.nopa.org/resources/datafacts/top-10-destinations-u-s-soybean-exports-2015-2017/
The Netherlands moved up to third place but remain dwarfed by China, purchasing just 9% of the Chinese total.
The bottom line is current prices are going to put the squeeze on farmers this fall and winter.