If we choose to lend any credibility to the questionable poll showing Kristi Noem leading Marty Jackley by eleven points, one key message emerges from the favorability scores and crosstabs: Trump lovers dig Noem, while the few South Dakota Republicans with the good sense to disapprove of Il Duce prefer Jackley
The poll finds that Donald Trump has higher favorability among 500 likely Republican primary voters than either Kristi Noem or Marty Jackley:
| Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kristi Noem? | |||
| 1 | Favorable | 340 | 68% |
| 2 | Unfavorable | 91 | 18% |
| 3 | No Opinion | 69 | 14% |
| TOTAL | 500 | 100% | |
| Q4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marty Jackley? | |||
| 1 | Favorable | 295 | 59% |
| 2 | Unfavorable | 96 | 19% |
| 3 | No Opinion | 109 | 22% |
| TOTAL | 500 | 100% | |
| Q5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump? | |||
| 1 | Favorable | 349 | 70% |
| 2 | Unfavorable | 107 | 21% |
| 3 | No Opinion | 44 | 9% |
| TOTAL | 500 | 100% | |
Perhaps the most noteworthy numbers there are the No Opinions. The undecideds for Trump are only 9%, while for Noem they are 14% and for Jackley 22%. Those numbers suggest that even at this point, our Attorney General still has more people wondering who he is and what he’s about than our Congresswoman has.
Also interesting are the unfavorables. The poll claims a 2.9% margin of error, so Trump, Noem, and Jackley have almost the same unfavorability rating, around 20%. Thus, there isn’t a lot of dissatisfaction among the Republican primary voters with any of these Republicans.
But now let’s crosstab voting intention with favorables for each candidate and Trump:
| Voting for Noem | Voting for Jackley | |
| Favorable Noem | 202 | 77 |
| Unfavorable Noem | 10 | 60 |
| Favorable Jackley | 100 | 139 |
| Unfavorable Jackley | 66 | 10 |
| Favorable Trump | 178 | 93 |
| Unfavorable Trump | 31 | 57 |
Jackley’s favorables are less committed to him than Noem’s favorables are to Noem. 28% of those who say they like Noem still plan to vote for Jackley; 42% of Jackley likers plan to vote for Noem.
But check out the Trump rows: 66% of those who like Trump plan to vote for Noem. 65% of those Republicans who don’t like Trump plan to vote for Jackley. Thus, if Team Noem wants to take this poll really seriously, they could use the numbers to say that Noem voters are Trump-loving patriots while Jackleyites hate our Dear Leader.
By the way, vote by sex indicates a slight flip of expectations but reinforces the Trump–Noem alignment:
| Voting for Noem | Voting for Jackley | ||
| Male | 116 | 79 | |
| Female | 104 | 87 | |
| Favorable Trump | Unfavorable Trump | No Opinion | |
| Male | 183 | 51 | 16 |
| Female | 166 | 56 | 28 |
The differences aren’t big, but Noem’s voters are 53% male and 47% female, while Jackley’s are 52% female and 48% male. This small difference could simply indicate that a few more fellas like watching Kristi riding that horsey while a few more women are sick of voting for a beauty queen. But if there is any reliable sex dynamic in this race, it aligns with the Trump approval ratings: South Dakota men back Trump more strongly than South Dakota women do, so maybe the stronger association with Trump strengthens Noem among men and weakens her among women.
Even so, there are still lots more Republican women who like Trump than don’t, so playing to Trump voters washes out playing to the ladies.
Whether this poll is conveying a message about the Republican electorate or manufacturing a narrative, this poll tells a Trump story: South Dakota’s Republican primary voters like Trump, and that like aligns with their like Noem. Dissatisfaction with Trump aligns with votes for Jackley.
I told the republicans at the Minnehaha county fair booth that either Trump would lose or he would bring their party down. I noticed that they had a six to eight foot sign for Thune and an eighteen inch sign for trump. They have lost touch with their own people when the people are more for trump than they are for the republican leadership. Sounds like a great year for the dems to make some gains, with the republicans in disarray falling in a hole with trump.
So, aside from your dart throwing pontification, are there ANY polls, manufactured or otherwise showing Jackley in the lead? If there was evidence to the contrary, do you not think the Jackley team would be talking about it? Their polls show the same thing, which is why he is pushing so hard this early. The fact that voters (especially women) will begin to learn who Jackley really is will only widen the gap and Noem will trounce him. When you don’t have a voting record, it’s easy to skate by until a little more research is done. Noem’s record is out on the table, but Jackley’s will catch up to him.
I don’t know about the veracity of the polls Noem keeps trumpeting, but I have a really, really, really hard time believing that Jackley is winning the anti-trump vote, given Jackley’s practically prostrating himself before Trump at every opportunity. The only way I can see this being possible is if anti-Trump republicans aren’t aware of Jackley’s extreme Trump-worship and are only going by Noem’s clear worship of him both in word and in her votes.
It will be very interesting to see who does win the republican primary, because I’m hearing half and half from most of the republicans I know. Both Noem and Jackley would be horrendous, dangerous governors, with the edge to Jackley on being the most horrendous and dangerous.
Laurisa, it is a tenuous connection to draw from dubious poll results. It could simply be that most voters aren’t watching closely. They don’t see Jackley’s press releases and photos with Trump; they just take a superficial glance at the news, see Noem in Washington, and figure she’s wrapped up with the Trump tax cuts and other Trumpiness. They don’t see Marty in the news as much, and when they do, it’s not immediately about Trumpy stuff.
Half and half—I’d trust your informal polling more than I trust this paid poll!
This poll is a big “who cares”. Both candidates are Trump supporters or they wouldn’t be winning the Republican Nomination. Trump hating Democrates don’t get to vote in the Republican primary. Whichever candidate wins will smoke Billie Sutton in the general election like a cheap cigarette. The Trump Grumpies effectively have no say in this election.