I’m heading out to visit with some Aberdeen-area Berniemaniacs this evening. They may find the new Public Policy Polling results interesting.
PPP finds that Hillary Clinton is leading some Republicans in Iowa and trailing others, by no more than four points in any case. The same is true for Bernie Sanders:
The strongest Republican against Clinton in the state is Ben Carson, who leads her 44/40. The other three GOP hopefuls ahead of Clinton all lead her by just a single point- Mike Huckabee at 44/43, Scott Walker at 44/43, and Marco Rubio at 43/42.
The Republicans who fare the worst against Clinton are Jeb Bush who trails by 4 at 44/40, and Rand Paul and Donald Trump who each trail by 3 at 43/40. The rest of the GOP hopefuls each trail Clinton by 2 points- Ted Cruz at 44/42, Carly Fiorina at 42/40, and Chris Christie and John Kasich each at 41/39.
When we last polled Iowa in April Clinton led the 8 Republican hopefuls we tested on this poll by an average of a little bit more than 4 points. Now her lead over those same eight comes out to an average of half a point. Bernie Sanders is also catching up to Clinton when it comes to match ups with the Republicans as he becomes better known- he leads Bush 41/40, trails Rubio 39/38, leads Trump 44/40, and ties with Walker at 40. On the whole he does only fractionally worse than Clinton in the head to heads [Tom Jensen, “General Election Tight in Iowa,” Public Policy Polling, 2015.08.11].
National Nurses United endorsed Sanders yesterday. They aren’t worried about electability, and PPP’s Iowa results suggest they shouldn’t be. In swing state Iowa, Sanders appears to have as much chance as Clinton right now of beating Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, or Donald Trump.