Trumpflation is depressing Minnesota’s tourism economy:
Minnesota hospitality and tourism businesses reported continued challenges with rising costs and declining customer demand heading into summer in a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Hospitality Minnesota.
The survey received 119 responses from across the state in May 2026; most respondents were owners of overnight accommodation or food and drink businesses.…
Over half of respondents reported that customer traffic and revenue had declined in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025. Profits took an even more substantial hit, with 63 percent indicating that profits fell over the year….
“Consumers (guests) seem to be holding their discretionary spending ‘close to their chests’ in light of inflationary pressures and alarming concerns about the future,” wrote the owner of a central Minnesota resort.
Predictions for the upcoming season were mostly negative as well. Half of businesses expected their profits to be lower than last summer, and only about 15 percent expected growth. The rest predicted that profits would remain flat over the year.
“Discretionary family spending seems to be down,” a St. Paul entertainment business owner wrote, “so our attraction-based organization is seeing lower attendance” [Haley Chinander, “Minnesota Hospitality Businesses Are Wary About the Summer Season,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2026.06.22].
Making matters worse: Trump’s jerkery toward our closest neighbor:
“Between the price of gas/diesel and the cold shoulder Canadians are giving us, I’m not very optimistic on this season’s potential,” wrote an accommodation owner in northeast Minnesota. “Add in the threat of persistent, prolonged wildfire smoke and we could really suffer” [Chinander, 2026.06.22].
Trump’s outrageous, mendacious, and corrupt foreign policy drove resurgently patriotic Canadians to pull back from visiting Minnesota and the rest of the U.S. The 22% decline in Canadian visits swamped increases from Mexico and the United Kingdom and dragged down total foreign travel to the U.S. in 2025 by 5.4%:
The 2025 tourism numbers are especially notable because they moved completely in the opposite direction of what experts expected.
In March 2025, NTTO [National Travel and Tourism Office] forecast that the U.S. would see 77.1 million visitors in 2025, which would have been an increase of 4.7 million from 72.4 million in 2024. The forecast also expected tourism levels to continue to recover and that U.S. international arrivals would reach 85 million in 2026, topping 2019 levels.
Instead, arrivals fell to just over 68 million in 2025. That wasn’t only below the forecast; it was below the previous year’s actual total by more than 4 million. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) had already warned in May 2025 that the U.S. was on track to lose $12.5 billion in international traveler spending, projecting that spending would fall to just under $169 billion in 2025, down from $181 billion in 2024.
…The Canadian pullback has been particularly unfortunate for the economy because Canada has been the closest and largest international source of visitors for the U.S. For years, Canadians have driven across the border for weekend shopping, flown south to theme parks and beaches, spent winters in Florida and Arizona, visited national parks, taken cruises from U.S. ports, and supported tourism businesses in border states.
The Canadian boycott stems from a mix of factors, including political tensions, trade policies, immigration enforcement concerns, and anger over President Donald Trump’s rhetoric toward Canada (especially his remarks about making Canada the 51st state).
That’s partly why U.S. destinations and tourism businesses have had a hard time addressing the boycott. A weaker exchange rate or higher hotel prices can sometimes be countered with discounts. However, political resentment and damaged trust are harder to fix — while some Canadians have demanded an official apology from Trump, others have said it wouldn’t make much of a difference to them [Christine Dulion, “U.S. Tourism Replaces Boycotting Canadians with Increase in Two Other Traveler Nationalities Instead,” The Travel, 2026.06.09].
Canadian visits rose for the first time in 15 months this April, but they are still the levels Minnesota and the rest of our country enjoyed before we reëlected a jerk for President.