Walmart and other grocers are trying to bolster King Don’s reality distortion field by claiming Americans will pay less for their Thanksgiving feasts this year.
Economically inclined Rapid City blogger John Tsitrian is not fooled:
First of all, Walmart’s statement is misleading, and secondly, food prices, overall, have gone up in the past year.
As to Walmart’s claim, it’s misleading because if you scan the menus it compares, the components of this year’s meal differ significantly from 2024’s. CNN fact checkers went through both year’s menus and found differences significant enough (among them, this year’s menu has six fewer items than last year’s) to render the comparison useless.
It seems reasonable to expect an analysis like this to include exactly the same items from each year.
As to Trump’s claim that he’s delivering on his promise to “crush inflation and lower prices,” it isn’t happening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that food prices from September 2024 to September 2025 are up nearly 3%. The Walmart ad campaign proves nothing about Trump’s track record on reducing inflation.
What it does prove is that a) a public-relations driven manipulation of data can create false impressions of reality and b) that an opportunistic politician can cherry pick headlines to promote his preferred narrative, dubious as it may be [John Tsitrian, “Walmart Says Holiday Meal Costs Less This Year. Trump Says This Proves He Crushed Inflation. Reality Says Otherwise,” South Dakota Standard, 2025.11.10].
Monday Morning Economist Jadrian Wooten repriced Walmart’s 2024 Thanksgiving dinner items, which Walmart claimed last year would cost “less than $7 per person”. The same items, including fixins for homemade stuffing instead of this year’s Stove Top substitute, cost $7.38 per person at Walmart right now. That’s at least a 5.6% increase in cost since last year.
Other grocers are promoting cheaper Turkey Day meals by substituting store brands for name brands:
But retailers’ seasonal suggestions – such as Cincinnati-based Kroger’s subbing Campbell mushroom soup for its store brand – encourage customers to economize by trading down to generic items or using fewer items. All but two items this year on Kroger’s list, Campbell’s Turkey Gravy and yams, are store-branded items.
…Aldi, the German discount chain, also pitches a $40 Thanksgiving spread for 10, down from $47 a year ago. This year, the list switched to a cheaper Jennie-O turkey from Butterball, swapped pie crusts and shaved a few cents off carrots, potatoes, and onions.
Target‘s seven-item Thanksgiving meal list for four people for less than $20 included switches to store brands, including dropping nationally recognized Del Monte green beans and Campbell’s Cream of Mushroom Soup [Alexander Coolidge, “Grocers like Kroger Tout a Cheaper Thanksgiving Dinner This Year. But There’s a Catch,” Cincinnati Enquirer, 2025.11.11].
Don’t be fooled: the groceries you bought last year cost more this year. The only way you’ll pay less for Thanksgiving this year is if you buy less or buy different, cheaper brands.
Don’t most people substitute lower priced items for the higher priced ones? I do. Sometimes I kike the quality, quantity, or taste of the branded item, and will pay a higher ptice, but I’m definitely a bargain shopper. What these stores should do is have three sets of carts. The first should be the highest prices they will charge. The third should be the lowest cost items. And have a medium priced cart for a mix. I also shop the advertised bargains, use coupons, and shop other stores for the best deals. I’ll substitute chicken for turkey is the prices for turkey aren’t reasonable.