[Read Dhaval Dave, Andrew I. Friedson, Drew McNichols, and Joseph J. Sabia, “The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and Covid-19,” IZA Discussion Paper No. 13670, September 2020.]
The German nonprofit IZA—Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit/Institute of Labor Economics—crunched data from cell phones and the CDC to determine the impact of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally on the spread of coronavirus in the United States over the past few weeks.
If you trust German math (NASA did; so should you), the above formulas lead to the conclusion that the Sturgis Rally “cause spread of covid-19 cases both locally and in the home counties of those who traveled to the Sturgis Rally and returned home”:
…the Sturgis event increased COVID-19 cases in Meade County by 6.3 to 6.9 cases per 1,000 population as of September 2nd 2020, a month following the onset of events at the Sturgis Rally. For the state of South Dakota as a whole we find that the Sturgis event increase COVID-19 cases by 3.6 to 3.9 cases per 1,000 population as of September 2nd 2020. This represents an increase of over 35 percent relative to the 9.7 cases per 1,000 population in South Dakota on July 31, 2020 (South Dakota Department of Health 2020).
…we find that counties that contributed the highest inflows of Sturgis attendees saw COVID-19 cases rise by 10.7 percent following the Sturgis event relative to counties without any detected attendees [Dave et al./IZA, September 2020, pp. 3–4].
The IZA researchers suggest that low population density was keeping South Dakota’s coronavirus cases low prior to the Rally (but population density isn’t everything—rural communities have lots of other risk factors that allow coronavirus to take hold). But in our statewide complacency, we decided to host one of the worst possible events one could stage in the middle of a pandemic:
The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally represents a situation where many of the “worst case scenarios” for superspreading occurred simultaneously: the event was prolonged, included individuals packed closely together, involved a large out-of-town population (a population that was orders of magnitude larger than the local population), and had low compliance with recommended infection countermeasures such as the use of masks. The only large factors working to prevent the spread of infection was the outdoor venue, and low population density in the state of South Dakota [Dave et al./IZA, September 2020, p. 3].
The IZA researchers found that 90.7% of Rallygoers came from outside of South Dakota; 72.1% came from states not bordering South Dakota.
The increased contagion those Rallygoers took home was predictable; thanks to social science, the results are also quantifiable:
Multiplying the percent case increases for the high, moderate-high and moderate inflow counties [“inflow” means percentages of residents who attended the Rally] by each county’s respective pre-rally cumulative COVID-19 cases and aggregating, yields a total of 263,708 additional cases in these locations due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Adding the number of new cases due to the Rally in South Dakota estimated by synthetic control (3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000) brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020.
If we conservatively assume that all of these cases were non-fatal, then these cases represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of $46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020). This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend [link added; Dave et al./IZA, September 2020, pp. 29–30].
South Dakota’s Department of Revenue bragged last week that it had collected $1.34 million so far in taxes from the Rally. Even if the final tax revenue tally doubles the current count, South Dakota will have raked in only one dollar for every $4,500 that our little epidemiological experiment will cost the nation’s economy and public health budgets.
Beneath this crushing economic result, the IZA team offers one glimmer of public health hope: some states may have reduced the impact of Sturgis with their sensible pandemic control measures:
Despite evidence that a large share of variation in mitigation behaviors is driven by voluntary behaviors (Sears et al. 2020; Cronin and Evans 2020), there is mounting evidence that statewide policy interventions such as shelter-in-place orders (Courtemanche et al. 2020; Friedson et al. 2020; Dave et al. 2020a,b,c) and mask wearing mandates (Lyu and Wehby 2020) may play an important role in preventing the spread of COVID-19.
…For the highest relative inflow counties, the findings provide some suggestive evidence that COVID-19 spread from the Sturgis Rally may have been mitigated by state policies. That is, we find three weeks after the start of the Sturgis event, COVID-19 cases grow by 14.6 percent in high relative inflow counties nested in states with weak mitigation policies (column 1). However, in states with stronger mitigation policies, counties with higher inflows into Sturgis saw much lower rates of growth in COVID-19 cases one week after the close of the Sturgis Rally (2.6 percent; statistically insignificant) [Dave et al./IZA, September 2020, pp. 28–29].
Throw a big party, take people’s money, send folks home with 267,000 more cases of coronavirus that cost the nation $12.2 billion—that’s South Dakota values, ignoring science and public health for selfish gratification. Forget your so-called experts; we want to party!
Tweet from one of the authors – Andrew Friedson at CU-Denver. Contains links to similar studies they did for the BLM protests and Trump’s Tulsa rally.
https://twitter.com/FriedsonAndrew/status/1302591878957862912
Come on Cory, put on your positive pants and quit crunching numbers that cast doubt on laissez faire Rally capitalism.
Are there any studies using “alternative math?” ;-)
I look to QAnon to dismiss these findings because breathing is the underlying health condition that lead to the unfortunate deaths of these people — not the Corona virus they also happened to contract.
Gee, that collected tax money will pay for kristi’s ad AND. her fence !!
The Hill picked up the story. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/515453-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-was-superspreading-event-that-cost-public
Corey nailed the punchline — those are South Dakota values — socializing costs, selfishly grabbing a few “profits”.
If only we had responsible, accountable leadership at federal and state levels.
Close to home for bewildered South Dakota wingnuts….
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/515483-iowa-coronavirus-cases-surpass-70000
70k cases and almost 1200 bodies for drumpf body count.
The Fascist Tinker Belle GNOem’s leadership
“Still, more than 60 percent of Sturgis residents had wanted the rally delayed. City officials considered that possibility, but ultimately allowed the event to move forward. Gov. Noem showed little concern about the possibility of the rally leading to greater viral spread. “We hope people come,” she said on Fox News. “Our economy benefits when people come and visit us.””
In Fascist South Dakota 60 percent is not a majority.
So Gov. Noem will inflict medical expenses on people in other states, yet not allow expanded enrollment into Medicaid for her own citizens. To me that is a question she needs to be asked and answer.
No Show is in Ohio campaigning for Don the Con, her 2024 presidential bid and blaming journalists for covering a fake study. Her Qbots on Twitter are screaming fake news. She is such a perfect little Trump-pet Putin puppet. Meanwhile, Steve Marmel has nicknamed us the Chernobyl of Covid.
Yay South Dakota!
The Land of Infinite Ignorance!
SDBlue, that “Chernobyl of Covid” description for South Dakota, is pitch perfect! Damn, I love the beauty of that very much.
Here is another one that I just read about Falwell. “Toward the end of the call, Becki Falwell, who has not commented on the Cohen book or the photographs, could be heard urging her husband to cut short the conversation with Reuters. “Hang up the goddamn phone,” she told her husband. “Hang up the phone, Jerry!” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-falwell-endorsement/trumps-ex-lawyer-cohen-links-falwells-endorsement-in-2016-to-suppression-of-racy-photos-idUSKBN25Z2S0
The stinking corruption of these crooks and liars is astounding. They are stealing us blind and their supporters as well. No one is immune from the Chernobyl Covid of republican thievery..trump even stole 800 million from his own campaign…that is real crookery. It’s all a grift and GNOem plays a big part in it.
Who is Mr. Steve Marmel, and what is a Qbot? The form sounds like a Mr. Rogers sort of milquetoast, and the latter sounds quite insidious and the sort of thing that might set grudznick and Mr. Dale on edge because…you know…the government is out to get us with their Qbots.
California is burning and then, there is this. A 12,000 group of silliness that wants to top Sturgis. The good thing is that they will just stay there and not leave.
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/ca-state-capitol-prayer-rally-sean-feucht-bethel-church/
To reiterate, especially for Kruel Kristi, Shamelessness is not a virtue.
Grudz, you know that thing called Google? Plug in Steve Marmel. Read. When you’re done there, plug in QAnon. The latter is quite insidious.
The cited paper notes: “IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.”
The paper is, of course, now being demonized as “fiction” by Gnome herself as supported her Gnomites. They are clearly unable to engage in constructive comment and discussion as concerns the actual content of the paper itself, as is the purpose of such a paper.
“Fiction”—indeed, Dave, so Noem squawks, saying that pointing out the externalities of a superspreader event “is nothing short of an attack on those who exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis.”
We can’t discuss anything with Noem without her turning it into a Trump rally, filled with non sequiturs and diversions from the actual issues at hand. I’m not attacking “freedom”; neither are IZA’s researchers. The report points out that Sturgis appears to have contributed to a surge in coronavirus cases and significant public health costs that we could have avoided but chose to exacerbate.
And notice that the lazy SDGOP spin blog, rather than trying as Dakota Free Press does to offer analysis and links to encourage readers to study the issue for themselves, simply burps up Kristi’s brief anti-science, anti-media screed and reposts a new Trump ad, without any useful commentary.
Hissy fit from Tinker Belle GNOem, our AWOL silly governor has got her panties all twisted now. She disputes science, which is logical considering she’s a dummy. Chris Hays has the report
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/09/kristi-noem
Governor Noem calls the bad news about Sturgis an “attack” on all those wonderful, fun loving Americans who “exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis.” With our Governor’s encouragement, they came to South Dakota from all over the nation to exercise their personal freedom to recklessly expose themselves to, and then spread, a virus that has killed 185,000 Americans in the past 6 months. That is not freedom. That is reckless indifference to human life and public health. And the Governor and her flunkies in State government saw it coming and they said and did nothing to stop it. And now, every day, South Dakota is Number 1 or Number 2 in highest per capita infections rates in the USA. This is on you now, Governor.
Kruel Kristi’s shame and SD’s lethality is broadcast everywhere. What do they think this will mean for 2021 tourism?!
From Ozy:
“Motorcycle Rally Linked to a Quarter-Million COVID-19 Cases
“They went hog wild. An estimated 460,000 people attended the annual 10-day motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota, in early August — and despite warnings from health officials, most eschewed masks and social distancing. Now a not-yet-peer-reviewed study has found the superspreader event could be linked to 266,796 COVID-19 cases, or 1 in 5 of those diagnosed nationwide from Aug. 2 to Sept. 2 — and $12.2 billion in health costs. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem called the report, which found Sturgis responsible for a 35 percent jump in her state’s cases, ‘fiction.’
“Sources: Grand Forks Herald, Jalopnik, Washington Post”
Axios covered it too. This is the kind of national news that SD makes under Kruel Kristi.
“A coronavirus outbreak tied to the annual motorcycle rally in Sturgis, S.D., ended up generating 250,000+ cases — and therefore more than $12 billion in public health costs, according to a new discussion paper, Caitlin Owens writes.
The rally led to 266,796 additional cases, or 19% of the new cases in the U.S. between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2, the paper found.
The report by IZA — a nonprofit research institute based in Bonn — used anonymized cellphone data.
The other side … Devin Pope, a professor at the University of Chicago, tweeted: ‘Overall, I think the ‘Sturgis Effect’ that the authors document is in large part just a Midwest surge that took place during this time period.’ “
Even Katie Couric’s newsletter has the story. That makes it official. Kruel Kristi and SD are terrible. 😥
“part of a Midwest surge”? The IZA authors appear to challenge that notion, to test specifically against it. They compare places with high inflows of folks coming home from Sturgis to places that did not have such high Sturgis participation. They identify coronavirus rates all over, and, if I understand them correctly, they are saying that coronavirus surged even more in places with high post-Sturgis inflows. The Sturgis effect seems to stand on top of the back-to-school effect, or the mask-fatigue effect, or whatever other effects might have contributed to the overall Midwestern surge.
Yes. I think Pope’s comment sounds like an awfully weak attempt at justification without responding directly to the stats.
For some reason, my post never made it.
I’d remind folks that the papers being published under IZA are not peer reviewed. This isn’t a direct indictment, but it means no experts within the field have double checked their work.
I know South Dakota has too few contact tracers, but the DoH has reported less than 150 known cases from the rally (124 last I checked). From our neighboring states, we’re still around that 300 number.
That’s an order of magnitude (and then some) away from the 3,088 new cases within South Dakota the paper attributes to the rally. During the Aug 2 – Sept 2 time frame, there were around 5,000 new cases in SD, so the authors attribute 61% of all new cases in the state to the rally. If that were true, the SD DoH has achieved expert level of obfuscation. Keep in mind, this is the same department that tried and failed to keep Smithfield out of the spotlight.
If there were truly 266k cases from the rally across the U.S., the word of it would’ve percolated up by now.
There’s no discussion in the paper about potential contravening variables, such as the starting of universities in that timeframe, highschool extracurriculars, etc. The big flag for me is the counties with the most rally inflow are also, logically, likely to be the ones where people don’t practice good social distancing / mask wearing practices, given the number of people willing to go to a motorcycle rally in the middle of a pandemic. That leads me to conclude their synthetic rate under-estimated the likely spread of COVID from native (non-rally) sources, and over-attributed cases to the rally.
For the record, the rally was a silly idea, but there are far too many challenges within this paper to attribute 1 in 5 new COVID cases in the US to Sturgis.
We’ll see. (C) Trump
“SD DoH has achieved expert level of obfuscation. Keep in mind, this is the same department that tried and failed to keep Smithfield out of the spotlight.”
Hahahahahahahahaha:) Ask CDC and FDA and WHO how effective Trump/Noem were keeping the lid on Smithfield ect. But things are completely transparent now and we all know exactly what Smithfield’s infections, deaths, infectious (rates are more important that CDC/FDA positive tests, death or hospitalizations), are, right?
For example —New Yorker Politics and More podcast (7.16.20)—Meat-packing and poultry-processing jobs have always been dangerous, and COVID-19 has exacerbated the risks. This spring, infection rates climbed so high at Mountaire, one of the largest poultry producers, that it stopped disclosing the numbers. Mountaire’s owner, Ronald Cameron, is one of Trump’s biggest donors. Jane Mayer, a New Yorker staff writer, on conditions at the company’s plants, and how Cameron is leveraging the coronavirus crisis to strip workers of their protections. SUPPRESSION OF PANDEMIC DATA ENHANCES PROFIT.
More to follow.
drumpf body count passed 196k today.
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
6,583,407
Deaths:
196,089
Off Topic but curious iowan is curious if anyone attending sturgis caught my hometown band SAUL who played 2 sets there at the rally. Have heard of them, seen their tour van, but never heard them play.
mfi, I didn’t see them you can hear them here
Thanks bcb. The video for Rise as Equals was filmed in Sutherland, iowa last Labor Day weekend. Right next to bar/grille the lead singer and lead guiitar player’s folks owned at one time.