Last week, CDC Director Robert Redfield said, “If we could get everybody to wear a mask right now, I think in four, six, eight weeks we could bring this epidemic under control.” Not cured or gone, but slowed down enough that we could safely conduct a much larger share of our economic and social activities.
Scientists at University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation have poured data from lots of studies on how well masks prevent disease and concluded that if 95% of us would wear cloth masks, we’d reduce our coronavirus transmission rate by 30%.
To understand why that 30% reduction is huge and worth masking up for, you have to do some math:
The coronavirus spreads exponentially. For example, let’s say in a place where no one is wearing masks, each infected person is currently passing the virus to 1.03 others. This means 100 infected people will go on to infect 103 others, who in turn infect 106 others, who infect 109 and so on. The result is that in, say, seven five-day cycles of infection, a total of 889 people will have contracted the virus.
But if you curb the transmission rate by 30%, this means that instead of infecting 1.03 others, each infected person passes the virus on to only 0.72 others. So now 100 infected people go on to infect only 72 people. These 72 go on to infect just 52 people in the next cycle. By the seventh cycle, only 10 new people are infected, and only a total of 332 people have contracted the virus altogether. Essentially, instead of exponential growth you’ve triggered what’s called exponential decay [Nurith Aizenman, “Can Masks Save Us from More Lockdowns? Here’s What the Science Says,” NPR: Shots, 2020.07.22].
That reduction of spread means a reduction of death:
Based on the pandemic’s current trajectory through the U.S., they forecast that by Nov. 1, nearly 80,000 more people will die from COVID-19. But if Americans ramp up from their current level of mask use to 95% use, about 34,000 of those deaths could be avoided… [Aizenman, 2020.07.22].
These researchers acknowledge that masks won’t make coronavirus disappear on the spot. But we could reopen a lot more of our businesses and schools and other activities and suffer far less both in terms of public health and the economy.
Masks aren’t a silver bullet, but they are the best combination of cheap and effective that we’re going to get to fight coronavirus. Stay home, stay apart… or wear a mask.
Golly, if only someone would have told us this in February or even March…Wait, they did.
Oh no you got it all wrong…Kristi Noem says the science is mixed on their ability of masks to slow the spread of the disease. I believe Kristi because she gets all her information from Donald who is the Chosen One.
Oh yea ds, he who “knows more than the generals do” and now he’s learned that he knows more than the scientists do? What will it take for that base of his to awaken to how they have been taken?
A new poll shows that 70% of Minnesotans support Gov Walz’ mask mandate.
RNC Hid Face Mask Purchases
July 24, 2020 at 12:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 94 Comments
“The Republican National Committee in a new federal filing this week said it spent $14,000 on ‘building maintenance.’ In reality, it was disguising a purchase of face masks,” Business Insider reports.
“Some conservatives chafe at wearing masks, but the spending reveals GOP party leaders were taking the coronavirus more seriously than they were publicly letting on.”
Hee hee, ds!
I hear KELO reporter Todd Epp has been trying to follow Gov. Noem’s advice and get the straight poop from the Stanford experts she said we should talk to about the dubious benefits of masks. So far, those Stanford experts haven’t been returning calls. And now that Trump has said masks have an impact and we should wear them, Noem probably has to mute her BS twittering on the topic.
We still haven’t seen a photo of Kristi in a mask, have we?
Speaking of Gov. Walz’s sensible and popular public health intervention: I’m enjouing listening to The Current this weekend. They are playing all cover songs in recognition of Minnesota’s new mask rule. That’s a small thing but a smart and responsible way for a radio station to remind listeners of the little things we have to do together, as a community, to protect each other.
The Current is a great station, Walz is a caring governor and Minnesota is a wonderful state.