Last updated on 2022-09-05
From my reading, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team’s March 16 paper on how to save two million American lives and our healthcare system remains the seminal paper on the current pandemic. It lays out exactly what we need to do to curb the coronavirus until we have a tested, reliable vaccine: rolling quarantines and shutdowns triggered by certain levels of hospitalization due to coronavirus, which will come back every time we start going out again.
The experience of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan bears out Imperial College’s roadmap to national pandemic survival. Those nations clamped down fast, thanks part to the extensive coronavirus testing and tracing that the U.S. lacks, but have already seen second waves of contagion that required adoption or reinstatement of stricter measures:
Hong Kong had to adopt more stringent social distancing measures at the end of March, including strengthening travel rules and closing bars. Singapore avoided mass closures at first, but has now imposed lockdown measures until May 4 and temporarily closed schools. Taiwan hasn’t shut down, but it has put really stringent travel restrictions in place.
And this may be the world’s new normal, at least until an effective medical therapy is widely available that lessens the intensity of the disease, or the world acquires immunity, most likely through a vaccine. Social distancing measures may be a recurring tool — intensifying, easing, and intensifying again as outbreaks surge, diminish, and surge again.
Because as long as the coronavirus is spreading somewhere, it can spread everywhere. That is why no country has beaten the coronavirus yet [Jen Kirby, “What We Can Learn from the ‘Second Wave’ of Coronavirus Cases in Asia,” Vox, 2020.04.17].
Read that last sentence again: as long as the coronavirus is spreading somewhere, it can spread everywhere. That applies to states as much as nations. Republican governors may brag that their states aren’t New York or California, but as long as coronavirus is out there, rural exceptionalism and plain old corporate exploitation of labor won’t prevent your state from suddenly blossoming into a pandemic hotspot. The personal responsibility Governor Kristi Noem vaunts as a replacement for ordering a statewide shutdown hasn’t stopped South Dakota from adding a hundred or more confirmed cases of coronavirus every day for the past week. Our current rate of infection is more than double that of any neighboring state, so Minnesota doesn’t dare liberate itself, not as long as its South Dakota neighbors keep sneezing in their general direction.
We don’t get an end date. We don’t get a VJ-Day-style party where we get to run out in streets and plant sloppy drunk kisses on every nurse we see. We don’t get to make solid plans for anything—business, school, construction, street dances, Sturgis (get real, Kristi)—that involves travel or crowds or standing unmasked within sneeze distance of anyone. We get to survive, but only if we continue to take serious countermeasures—wearing masks, shopping once a week, traveling nowhere, working and studying online at home, shutting down businesses, and doing without our normal lives.
Waving flags and guns and the Bill of Rights won’t save our hospitals, our economy, or our lives. As we see in other nations, testing, tracing, and rolling shutdowns will. So will science, and science operates on its own timeframe, heedless of our protest or inconvenience.
Related Reading: ProPublica offers this substantial, detailed advice to governors based on lessons from other countries on things we’ll need to do “for at least a year and probably two or three years“:
To help you and your aides think about this decision over the next few weeks, we’ve interviewed experts and frontline officials from Italy, Germany, Spain, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. While they differ on the details, their views formed a startlingly united consensus of what’s needed:
- Massive, ongoing testing to detect where the disease is spreading,
- a real-time ability to trace contacts of those infected and isolate them,
- a willingness of people to wear masks in crowded public spaces,
- reserves of personal protective equipment (PPE) and other equipment for hospital workers to handle any surge in cases,
- and reliable, easily administered blood tests to find out the number of people who have been infected. If they work well, such tests could eventually be used to identify people with immunity who could work at higher-risk jobs.
We also asked American experts whether states can meet all or most of these benchmarks. Their answers coalesced around a single point: None of you are close to being ready [Stephen Engleberg, Carolina Chen, and Sebastian Rotella, “Coronavirus Advice from Abroad: 7 Lessons America’s Governors Should Not Ignore as They Reopen Their Economies,” ProPublica, 2020.04.18].
Come on, you drooling puddingheads—quit Googling Kristi Noem’s skirt, boots, feet, swimsuit, and daughter and read ProPublica and other useful articles on how to solve real public policy problems!
“ sneezing in their general direction.”
I wonder if the Monty Python taunt would be less harmful …….
I’ve heard too many people say that COVID-19 is just like the common flu. BULL.
Catastrophic lung failure, heart damage, kidney failure, and now clotting so bad that young, formerly healthy people are having limbs amputated.
https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/broadway-star-nick-cordero-faces-leg-amputation-due-70227478?cid=social_fb_abcn
There is at least one person in Sioux Falls who died from a COVID-19 sparked stroke. And another who is currently in a nursing home from the same.
But the True Believers apparently think that none of themselves or their loved ones will get it. And that if they do, all it will be is a mild case of the flu. (Granted, some of the Proud Boys probably saw the 30% African-American death rate and decided – let ‘er rip! But I would like to think not everyone is like that.)
Meanwhile, Sturgis is coming.
Yes, Sturgis is coming. More fat old white sick people coming to South Dakota to listen to old beaten up drug abused rock and rollers in crowded campgrounds. Should be a fun time.
The observation of Black folks dying more than Whites is a fact. Most of that, the researchers say, is because of underlying health and economic situations. I would be willing to bet that a half million old out of shape, obese diabetics coming together in a large group, will catch up right quick like. We should plan on the need for more law enforcement, healthcare workers and other first responders that will need to replace the ones we lose to the “death rally virus roundup”. More body bags if you please.
This is a very tough nut to crack. The idea that we can’t let the cure
be worse than the disease is not so far fetched. If the economy keeps grinding
down, eventually there will be less tax money going into state and federal
coffers and than what. What part of government will be cut. Medicare, defense,
health and human services, dept. of education? There is no
wise and benevolent answer. There is likely no effective answer that will
not hurt someone, some group, some class. Letting the economy deteriorate
indefinitely is really not an intelligent option and will in the long run
also cost some lives.
It is easy, with the benefit of hind site, to look back and say “we should
have (maybe) done it this way rather than that way”. The longer this goes on,
the more it becomes apparent that we have not seen anything like this before.
As you look the world over, it seems like there was a lot of poor leadership,
or we just did not know what the proper response would have been.
Keeping the economy going is not a cold and unfeeling response. We have to
have some production. We can’t print (money) and borrow our way out of
every mess. (Google “wheelbarrow full of reichsmarks “)
I fear that we are going to have to take some calculated risks to open up more of the
economy. This is exceedingly difficult because if something goes wrong those
responsible will be pilloried no end.
I have another fear, or perhaps make it a prediction. When the outside temp
regularly gets into the 70’s, keeping people apart is going to get next to
impossible. Somebody is going to say “to hell with it, I’m having a block party”
and I don’t know if there will be enough policemen to stop them. I know that I am tired
of not going to church, not being able to stop at the bar occasionally, not doing
the hum drum boring things that make life, life.
Others may have other thoughts.
WAPO reports that Americans working inside WHO warned drumpf crime family late last year about Covid 19.
KEY FACTS
U.S. physicians, researchers and public health experts—many connected to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—were working at WHO’s Geneva headquarters as part of a years-long rotation, the Post reported, and they provided information about the coronavirus to the White House as it emerged late last year.
CDC officials were consulting with their WHO counterparts since the outbreak began, with sensitive information being shared with U.S. officials (including Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar) in a CDC secure facility, the Post reported.
The WHO often told CDC about its plans or announcements days in advance, the Post reported, citing an unnamed CDC official.
Trump earlier blamed WHO for delays in response to the virus as well as a lack of transparency, but an April 11 New York Times report said warnings issued to the administration by different parts of the federal government in January and February were ignored.
Mr. Edwin, remember when Bernie wanted money for Medicare for All and this same lame outfit said that there was not enough money in the world for that? Turns out there is and we have already given that to the big banks and other hot shots.
Tell me, what will people do when the economy is “open” so soon? There is no supply line, there are no markets, shipping has been cut by 30% incoming and about 10% outgoing. Do you really think that Canada or the European Union is gonna want to see us when we are still contagious? So Mr. Edwin, what will we sell and what will we buy?
Jerry, your first question a is a fair one. But as I said, I don’t
think you can print money forever and not suffer consequences.
The money supply has to be roughly commensurate with the
supply or worth of the goods and services offered.
Your second question sort of makes my point. To do business
you have to open for business. The longer we wait the
worse it is going to be.
In 1918 idiots in San Francisco formed an anti-mask league and held meetings with thousands of participants. Unsurprisingly San Francisco was one of the cities hit hardest by the Flu.
The Influenza Archives have observations from 50 cities. https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-sanfrancisco.html#
Eve, thanks for the link on how Covid-19 kills. It is brutal. Coronvirus is capable of infecting every bodily organ and function, apparently.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes
Meme of the day: picture of Charles Darwin with the faux caption, “You don’t want to quarantine; I’m fine with that.”
Mr. Edwin, we Americans don’t make anything, we are a service economy. We buy stuff from China and then we sell it to us, the consumer. trump has put tariffs and trade restrictions on all goods all over the world to come here. We cannot open for business if we don’t have anything to sell. We cannot buy orders because of tariffs along with shipping ports being cut back because of the virus. Now, if you’re saying to build rail systems and improve roads and bridges, sure, why not. Other than that, there is nothing to open and nothing to buy and no money to buy it with.
As far as printing money goes, in order to go into business after we are healthy, we will have to lower the value of the dollar. ““The Dollar is our currency, but it is your problem“ – John Connolly, US Secretary to the Treasury – 1971
As true in 1971 as it is today. Yes, we can turn the printer on and print as much damn money as will be needed. republicans have proven Dick Cheney’s words to a T, “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” Dick Cheney
Tell me how is the service industry gonna open up without food service being open for business? Do you really think that Americans will flock to The Texas Roadhouse or any other crowded place until we are sure our food and those who handle it are safe and free from virus? Why don’t we open up manufacture of masks and PPE, swabs and the like? Even more toilet paper. What crowded bar do you want to hang in?
Edwin, no abstractions allowed. How many people are you willing to let die to preserve each percentage point of GDP? How many thousands of deaths from disease do you consider better than one million people out of work for a couple months?
Mr. Edwin, I found this very interesting, see if you do as well. The people we want back to work are those that service our needs. Millennials. They know that my generation has caused this recession/depression that is coming. They know it’s on us, not them. They are as innocent as the one in 2008 that just about did us in. So no, they are not gonna go back to the gig economy until it’s safe.
“After the quarantine, after we count the lives lost or ruined, recession is coming. A big one. For millennials, it’s the second devastating economic calamity in our short working lives, and we’re still carrying the trauma of the first. This time, though, we know it’s not our fault. This time it’s abundantly clear that we didn’t deserve it. And this is exactly the sort of crisis that gives people ideas about overturning the social order.”
Snake pandemic. Military precision in the laboratory. Eyelash brushes sold as swabs.
Only Michael Lewis is able to tell such a dynamic story — this one on the path to a vaccine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-is-ready-for-coronavirus-tests-to-come
Here’s a welcome edited synopsis of the San Francisco anti-mask league via a twitter feed.
https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073?s=21
The faux metrics of the quarantine doing more damage than the virus IGNORES the mitigated cost of lives saved, hospitalizations avoided. While bad math and science, consider this crude illustration. The US population in 1918-19 was about 104,000,000. The Spanish Flu killed 650,000. Now the US population is about 3.125 times that of a century ago. It’s not unreasonable, using straight proportions, to extrapolate that crudely saving over 2 million lives is at stake.
Alternatively as another formulated: if the US were to just kill its 3,000 billionaires, confiscate their fortunes – using those fortunes to save lives, provide medicare for all, and recover the economy — the US would still have money left over and would still create more billionaires.
Asian countries that “beat the pandemic” have to do it all again. Well, Edwin, how expensive is that? What cost avoidance would mitigate that? Can we “learn” anything from those nations or our own example from the idiot anti-mask league from 1918 San Francisco (link in my above comment)? https://www.wired.com/story/the-asian-countries-that-beat-covid-19-have-to-do-it-again/
I sympathize with what Edwin is saying, but I can’t find a way to trade lives for commerce. I do think about the hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars —– in the hands of the rich. They actually could do a lot to save our economy, rather than trying to rip us all off even worse.
The pandemic pierced the bubble.The stock market was over sold and look at the price of oil.We can say what we want , but trouble was coming in the oil collapse.I am hoping the housing stays above grade to.
Yes, Moses6, the market has been a crap shoot for sometime now and has been goosed more than a few dozen times by trump. It will continue to fluctuate until it dives down to where it probably belongs, between 12 and 15,000, tops.
What we’re seeing in rural areas is not the big picture, but a sparsely populated state like ours is still gonna get gut punched like Lane, South Dakota. Who would’ve ever called that village a hot spot for anything. Yet, there it is, a very hot spot. All some virus infected person has to do is stop at 1880 Town and cough on something and soon you have the small towns around there with hot spots as well.
Same goes for any small town that has a store and a highway where people stop to use the gas station or the bathroom or whatever.
“Rural areas tend to feel protected from diseases that depend on people being in close contact with each other to spread. Indeed, experts say that with a pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 (the full name of the coronavirus), which was spreading in other countries before the United States, it made sense that the first places to feel the brunt here were major cities that imported lots of cases from travelers. Some of those went on to ignite community transmission.
Indeed, the five states where governors have not ordered people to stay at home are relatively rural: Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Arkansas.
But as cases grew in major urban areas, they spilled over to smaller cities, and from there to rural areas. Rural areas also might not realize the scope of the problem that is brewing in their communities; for all the well-publicized diagnostic testing snafus in cities, access to tests is even more limited in rural areas, experts say.”https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/rural-communities-coronavirus-toll/
jerry if it hits the 12 to 15 Mark would you say depression your thoughts on this.
What we are trying to do here is keep our health care system intact and give ourselves time. There has been a lot of health care workers killed during these last 2 months. The second wave of the 1918 pandemic killed every person that it infected. If we act stupid enough and don’t provide them with the proper safety equipment they will either walk off the front line of this pandemic or die. The 2020 version of the Sturgis rally could become the “Death Rally” and I don’t think that is how we want to be remembered. We are trying to give our health care workers the time to protect us and give us the time to develop a vaccine so we can get back to normal.
Just to summarize: what we are doing is working, so let’s stop.
I also have the question the faulty assumption that the economy can just be “opened” again. Austin Goolsby talked about this. He reminded that even if businesses are open, people will not be rushing into any actions that put their health at risk — except in Florida where beaches were re-opened and immediately packed.
Cory, just because you say something doesn’t make it so.
When nobody is working, nobody gets killed on the job.
When more people are working, somebody gets killed
on the job. That doesn’t mean that we shut the job down forever.
We as a society make a determination of how much risk is worth
the reward. We could save 35000 to 40000 lives a year by
enforcing the speed limit at 30 mph. Why don’t we?
Because we have decided that it is acceptable to lose x number
of lives for the convenience of driving 75 mph.
I realize that is certainly not a perfect comparison but it
might be sufficient to make a point. It may seem cold blooded
and unfeeling but decisions like that are made. There are 22 million
unemployed (roughly) right now. 94 people were killed building
Hoover dam. Hoover dam has been making electricity since the
late 30’s or early 40’s. As I said earlier, it’s a tough nut to crack.
We don’t know if shutting down for two months is going to do the trick.
Jerry, if you want to call me Mr., call me Mr. Arndt. You said earlier
that we don’t make anything, that we are a service economy. Depends
on what your definition of service is. To some, a service economy
is washing windows, changing tires, and daycare. To expand on that,
the workers at smithfield could be called part of a service economy
but they also add value. Bobcat in Gwinner, ND makes skid steer loaders
that they sell world wide. As far as I know they are running flat out.
They shut down last week but starting to run again, hopefully with a
safer environment for their workers. A plant in Grand forks that makes
fan blades for wind towers is shut down because of coronavirus. My
point is you can’t say we don’t make anything.
Back to you Cory. You asked how many thousands of deaths would be
acceptable for one million unemployed. I don’t have an answer.
Out of a million people employed, how many would get killed on
the way to work in a certain length of time? It’s a tough nut to crack.
No depression if Democrats win the senate and Joe Biden the presidency. The recession will be strong though and it will be deep here until the New New Deal kicks in. I have a positive outlook on where we will be…but not with trump and republicans. If that be the case, then make sure your passport is up to date and look north to Canada or East to Europe. These places will be able to weather the situations as they have a great social network, that will soon be even better.
The 12 to 15,000 makes sense when you look at the facts that the trades now are all on blue sky, nothing more. The value of the companies trading are not an actual value of what they are, no where close right now. Just goosed to reflect the buy backs with the tax cuts, so it’s like lending your right hand 20 bucks from your left hand and then telling your buddy, that your value has just increased 20 bucks and then, borrowing 40 bucks from him on the news. Bernie Madoff taught these guys well.
Edwin, your analysis of risk associated with jobs makes me wonder how that should/shall affect compensation moving forward. I think many talking about re-oening the economy are falsely assuming re-opening the old economy with its old rules of compensation and risk. If my job is inherently more life-threatening (beyond what I acknowledge you have pointed out), shouldn’t my compensation reflect that? If the new normal is that I have a far higher risk of a serious sickness, shouldn’t I have appropriate sick leave for both the protection of the employee and the rest of the business’ employees (and customers). Are companies willing to accept and live up to the new risk equations for doing business?
I didn’t say that service workers do not add value. What I said was we don’t make anything. Bobcat in North Dakota? Please, that’s it? “Bobcat Company is an American-based manufacturer of farm and construction equipment, part of Doosan Group of South Korea. Its American headquarters is in West Fargo, North Dakota, USA, formerly in Gwinner, North Dakota.”
We are a service economy that puts things together for foreign owned corporations. Smithfield is owned by a Chinese company that uses American hog farmers to supply raw product to the meat processing services. Of course, is an important service industry that has value.
“A COVID-19 outbreak at a Grand Forks factory is “a big deal” that could overwhelm the city’s hospital system, an administrator there said Friday, April 17.
The North Dakota National Guard tested hundreds of people on Thursday, April 16, at LM Wind Power, a General Electric-owned company where at least nine people had tested positive for the disease, which is caused by a novel coronavirus that’s swept across the country.” https://www.grandforksherald.com/business/manufacturing/5261196-UPDATED-LM-Wind-Power-outbreak-could-%E2%80%98overwhelm%E2%80%99-Grand-Forks-health-systems-hospital-leader-warns
So exactly what are we gonna do when the hospitals are full and the guard camps are full? Who is gonna take care of the sick? What if you have a heart attack and need to see a hospital? What are you gonna do, just wait and listen to your heart deteriorate until you croak.
Edwin, you’ve an axe to grind, not an open mind. I loathe researching for others. It smacks on their un-inquisitiveness, charitably.
For every 1% increase in unemployment, there generally is a 1,500 increase in deaths. Crudely the US unemployment rising to 18% from 4% contributes to an increase of 21,000 deaths. https://fortune.com/2020/04/16/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total/ (The trumpy government faux numbers read 4.4% unemployment as of early April – a mirage.)
So far COVID-19 killed >41,350 Americans. The virus damaged lungs and other tissues in tens of thousands more – eventually likely contributing to their premature demise from other future maladies. The virus cost the US economy the lost opportunity cost of billions, perhaps trillions, from lost work to evade greater loses of life, reduced physical vibrancy, and business. The trade-off is hundreds of thousands, or millions, or more, deaths, injuries, and greater economic loss. The US is using mass graves as we did in 1918-19 during the Spanish Flu. How far are you faux economic rights folks willing to take this?
Say, “uncle” or fully join the anti-masking league.
You know Edwin, I appreciate your thoughts on the lives lost at various jobs. It’s bad, for sure. It seems pretty cold blooded to deliberately add to it. I suppose businesses do that all the time and sometimes deliberately by speeding up, skipping safety protocols, etc. I don’t think I want my country to be like businesses that deliberately take chances with employees’ lives.
Slowing down factory lines and strictly enforcing safety procedures means things might cost more. How would we afford it? We’d have to restructure our economy as O described.
Edwin, if you don’t have an answer, then your objection is meaningless. It’s just talk.
The empirical data in front of us says people will die if you and I and everyone else don’t stay home.
I’m not willing to give up two million people to keep the stock market high and the pre-March economy operating. Shut it all down. Everyone stay home. Let’s take a breather, innovate, figure out new ways to sustain each other, do without the luxuries of street dances and state fairs and baseball games for months, maybe years, until we find a vaccine and or a cure.
No one has told me why people need to die for the sake of an economic abstraction. No one has told me why people (maybe my wife, maybe my daughter) need to die so Smithfield can make cheap hot dogs. So screw that. Shut the economy down. Save all the lives we can. Sacrifice to make it so.
I’ll sacrifice dinners out. I’ll sacrifice a paycheck. I’ll eat oatmeal and hope the garden comes in strong for the sake of my family and lots of other families. Why aren’t you willing to sacrifice for others, Edwin? Why are your priorities more important than mine? Why are your priorities more important than lives?
Edwin Arndt said: “We don’t know if shutting down for two months is going to do the trick.”
My daughter has come out of 2 months of a lockdown in Beijing. Her assessment is that things are not going to be back to normal right away, but may over time. The effort there is to reopen under tight controls, and have systems in place to deal with positives. It’s sort of what Fauci and Birx talk about once Trump gets through with his daily meltdowns.
The big chain stores in China made it through, and have opened under far stricter conditions. About 50 percent of the small businesses remain closed. Whether they will open back up is unknowable. Beijing is not a big manufacturing center, but it appears China is in a recession, down from about 7 percent growth.
You have to understand that China has dealt with SARS and other smaller outbreaks, and the leadership and people know what to do, and do it. They’re not whiners and complainers, like most Americans are. They didn’t have to be told to isolate, they started doing it before the government came down with restrictions.
Yeah, the Chinese leaders bungled the initial outbreak of COVID-19, but they did a great job in getting it under control in their country through flattening the curve everywhere besides the hotspot in and around Wuhan.
My daughter says the Chinese have a stronger social compact. Let’s put it this way, Americans think of themselves first. Chinese think of community first. So, Chinese willingly sit in their homes for two month so that everyone in the community can survive. Americans don’t give a damn about anyone but themselves, so after a month we have the selfish ones whining and protesting. All they are going to do is prolong the danger. This is one of the reasons my daughter refuses to come back to the US to live. There are too many stupid, selfish people here. So, the US will probably prolong this and kill more people by being selfish and having dumb and corrupt leadership. They will also do more damage to the economy as a result.
My feeling is the US is finished. Trump and selfishness will doom this country.
For some, here’s some good news! Thanks Democrats for the 80% medical loss provision in the ACA/Obamacare!!
“Health insurers will refund at estimated $2.7 billion to 7.9 million Obamacare consumers this fall to pay back overcharges in recent years, nearly double the 2019 record of $1.3 billion in refunds.
Refunds, or rebates, to people who purchased health coverage through the Affordable Care Act individual marketplaces will average $420 per customer, according to a report released Friday by the Kaiser Family Foundation. More than 4.7 million people in that market are expected to receive the refunds, it said.
The refunds result from the Affordable Care Act’s medical loss ratio provision, which requires insurers to spend at least 80% of their premium income (85% for large group plans) on claims and quality improvements over the previous three years. Insurers that do not meet that requirement must refund the difference as rebates.” Booyah!!
John, your comment at 20:13 is outstanding. Thanks for the info. Your summarization is eloquent.
Better and more hard numbers about the costs of not acting are found here, from the Center for Health Policy and Economics: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-overreacting-to-the-coronavirus-lets-do-the-math-2020-04-19?mod=home-page
Summary: “if unchecked, 30% of Americans became infected, far below most estimates, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s projection that 56% of his state’s residents would be infected without mitigation. Applying the same rates of hospitalizations and mortality to this higher rate of prevalence increases the cost of COVID-19 to nearly $3 trillion. And if we assume, quite reasonably, that mortality rates would rise from 0.5% to 1.5% as hospitals become increasingly overrun, the estimated cost of COVID-19 increases to $5.6 trillion, by my calculations.”
John, the hard numbers on deaths are clearly under reported as well.
“We are clearly missing way too many who have it because we should not have this great a percentage of the infected end up either dead or in serious / critical condition. Only 2% of the infected should end up dead, but 40,000 dead of the 124,000 resolved cases means that of the resolved cases, is 32.2% . So, either we should expect 32.2% of the positive cases to be dead or we are dramatically undertesting.” https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/19/1938769/-Ext-IMPORTANT-We-don-t-know-enough-to-reopen-43-of-the-resolved-dead-or-N-critical-condition?utm_campaign=recent
Math teachers and smart guys and gals who know arithmetic can tell that something is not jiving with the numbers. There are at least another 14,000 in critical condition that we know of. The “recovered” will not be for long as they will have long term health conditions to their heart, lungs, livers and kidneys.
The more we expose, the more long term death, sickness and trillions we will be spending, you sir are correct.
“The empirical data in front of us says people will die if you and I and everyone else don’t stay home.”
Hi Cory,
I don’t think we know all there is to know about covid yet. The data is still coming in. Consider Sweden. They never closed their grade schools or restaurants. That’s less restrictive than Noem, yet they’re confident their empirical, targeted, social restrictions are giving them a better curve than the UK and Italy… and developing herd immunity faster than locked-down states/countries.
Kind regards,
David
Except, David, that Sweden’s numbers are climbing:
“Sweden’s figures are considerably more than in the rest of Scandinavia. While its population of over 10 million nearly doubles those of Denmark, Norway and Finland individually, its COVID-19 death toll was up to 17 times higher than those countries, according to reports.”
And that’s from Fox News!
https://www.foxnews.com/world/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-rise-guidelines
Meanwhile, call me a wuss, but I would like to point out to my fellow South Dakotans that Italy, an epicenter for the COVID-19 virus, has an infection rate per capita of 0.29%
Sioux Falls currently has a per capita infection rate of 0.8%
And, of course, we’re not done yet. How high does our infection rate have to get before we take COVID-19 seriously?
David, Sweden is way more advanced than the United States could ever hope for. Sweden is the top of the social economic systems of the world. We could learn a lot from them…by being socialistic in our approach to health and to work.
“It’s unclear which strategy will ultimately prove most effective, and even experts in Sweden warn it’s too early to draw conclusions. But given the huge economic damage caused by strict lockdowns, the Swedish approach has drawn considerable interest around the world.
Part of that approach relies on having access to one of the world’s best-functioning health-care systems. At no stage did Sweden see a real shortage of medical equipment or hospital capacity, and tents set up as emergency care facilities around the country have mostly remained empty.”https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective
Great article. If only America would stop being more 1st world instead of third world we would all be in better shape. Sweden prepares and was prepared, while we dither and die.
drumpf body count not letting up, either….
Last updated: April 20, 2020, 16:17 GMT
April 14 – 15 Change in US Data
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
770,076
Deaths:
41,316
Sweden went from one of the poorest countries in the world to becoming the 4th wealthiest due to being damn smart and socially conscious. Equality and public health, makes a lot of sense economically as well as socially. Look how they take care of their elderly with dignity. Here is what our blueprint going forward should be.
“Sweden’s development towards prosperity started with institutional reforms such as incentive enhancing land reforms, property rights, successful anti-corruption measures and free trade reforms. Some reforms contributed to both prosperity and to equal distribution, as for example when women in 1864 were allowed to start business on equal grounds as men. In 1910, basic risk spreading social insurance schemes were introduced. Sweden continued to promote and protect public health as well as health and medical care throughout the 20th century. In the 1980s, for example, we were among the highest ranked countries in the world when it came to the amount of money invested in health and medical care. Budgetary policy restrictions and the decentralized distribution of responsibility meant this trend slowed in the remaining decades of the century. Even today, 35 years later, healthcare expenditure still accounts for around 10% of GNP.” https://www.symbiocare.org/how-sweden-achieved-world-class-medical-and-social-care/
My original home County of Cherokee, just recorded their first positive Covid-19 test. iowans get serious and cancel RAGBRAI until next year for all you avid bicyclers with mounds of cash that care to buy your way into a bike ride from the Missouri to the Mississippi rivers.
May be great for the heart until you ride by hog confinement after cafo after more hog con finements and filled manure pits. They need overnight kung sandblasting stations along the way.
Where are the heart attack patients and other life threatening illnesses going?
“Soon after he repurposed his 60-bed cardiac unit to accommodate covid-19 patients, Mount Sinai cardiovascular surgeon John Puskas was stumped: With nearly all the beds now occupied by victims of the novel coronavirus, where had all the heart patients gone? Even those left almost speechless by crushing chest pain weren’t coming through the ER.
Variations on that question have puzzled clinicians not only in New York, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, but across the country and in Spain, the United Kingdom and China. Five weeks into a nationwide coronavirus lockdown, many doctors believe the pandemic has produced a silent sub-epidemic of people who need care at hospitals but dare not come in. They include people with inflamed appendixes, infected gall bladders and bowel obstructions, and more ominously, chest pains and stroke symptoms, according to these physicians and early research.
“Everybody is frightened to come to the ER,” Puskas said.” Washington Post 04.20.20
Our health system is failing while republicans try to destroy it further.
Hi Eve,
Yes, I saw that. Reports regarding Sweden’s controversial handling of covid vary depending on the news brand.
Bloomberg: Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective
Fox: Sweden sees jump in coronavirus deaths with less restrictive guidelines under scrutiny
Reason: In Sweden, Will Voluntary Self-Isolation Work Better Than State-Enforced Lockdowns in the Long Run?
Business Insider: Sweden left schools, bars, restaurants, and gyms open during the coronavirus pandemic. Experts say the strategy might be working.
Yahoo News UK: Coronavirus: Stockholm could have ‘herd immunity’ by next month, Swedish health chief claims
I suspect Fox’s headline was influenced by Trump’s statement two weeks ago, “They talk about Sweden, but Sweden is suffering very greatly”.
I prefer to follow the signal rather than the noise. The data shows that Sweden is currently at 1424 confirmed cases per million (and 152 deaths pm) while Norway (its neighbor who’s under a pretty comprehensive lockdown) is at 1303 confirmed cases pm (and 28 deaths pm).
So why is the death rate higher in Sweden?
Hypothesis 1:
The health system is much worse in Sweden than it is in Norway.
Hypothesis 2:
The demographics of Sweden incline it to be more susceptible to covid than the demographics of Norway. (i.e. so far it looks like smokers, the elderly, the obese, blacks and Latinos have higher death rates… so maybe Sweden has more of these groups than Norway)
Hypothesis 3:
Covid knows what country it’s in and really hates the people of Sweden.
Hypothesis 4:
The covid death rate between Sweden and Norway is likely to be similar… i.e. it kills around 2% of its hosts regardless, but Sweden has a vast reservoir of unconfirmed cases.
#4 seems the most likely to me, especially when we consider:
a) Norway tests way more people (26,000 pm vs 7,300 pm), thus Norway’s “confirmed cases” number is going to be much closer to “actual cases”
b) Sweden hasn’t locked down nearly as much as Norway, which makes it hard to believe that while keeping schools and restaurants open, Sweden only has 10% more actual cases per million
Thus, taking hypothesis #4 as an assumption, then we could estimate that Sweden’s true infection rate is close to 7,600 cases per million (152 deaths pm/ 2% death-rate), which would make it the highest major country in that metric.
Is it a good thing or a bad thing to have the most actual cases per million? On the plus side, having the most actual cases means you’re the closest to achieving herd immunity. On the minus side, you have the most per capita deaths (at the moment) and risk overwhelming your hospitals. So far, Sweden’s hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed… but the strategy could backfire.
Or is Norway’s approach better? A full lockdown restricts the actual cases for as long as possible, but the economy halts until the vaccine arrives in the summer of 2021. Even under full lockdown… how many will there be left to vaccinate in 18 months? Come July of next year, we may find out that total per capita covid deaths in Norway and Sweden equal out… it’s just that Sweden dealt with them in April-May 2020 while Norway had covid deaths for over a year.
I don’t think we know all there is to know about covid yet.
Kind regards,
David
David: “Is it a good thing or a bad thing to have the most actual cases per million?”
I don’t think that statistic matters. What matters is the cases in need of hospitalization per hospital bed available. I am still of the mind that we are not preventing the disease spread; we are postponing it; dispersing it. I would argue that if we actually had the health care system that conservatives boast of, we would not have to have such a level of isolation/quarantine; we could power through it.
David: “Is it a good thing or a bad thing to have the most actual cases per million?”
I don’t think that statistic matters. What matters is the cases in need of hospitalization per hospital bed available. I am still of the mind that we are not preventing the disease spread; we are postponing it; dispersing it. I would argue that if we actually had the health care system that conservatives boast of, we would not have to have such a level of isolation/quarantine; we could power through it.
o is right. Hospitals in Wuhan were overwhelmed before China instituted social distancing. Left to itself, COVID massacred those folks. It was like when Europeans brought diseases across to Native Americans. Beds may not be the critical statistic. It might be PPE or medical personnel who aren’t too sick or too dead to work that is the limiting resource.
Trump is on again right now, using the supposed-to-be medical tv press briefing as a daily campaign rally and telling us once again how he saved us all with his no-flights from China, which was the only thing he’s done in this whole hot mess that was right, even though it was cruelly too little and too late.
I’m no medical expert, but I believe also that, left to its own devices, with no push-back from us Homo Sapiens, coronavirus might have wiped us all out.
Robin, I agree – it’s apparently frighteningly contagious, and ruthless in attacking all parts of the body, not just lungs. A former student of my husband’s, in his 40s living in Chicago, knows 5 people from his cohort who got COVID-19 – 2 died and 2 required amputation of limbs. I know one woman who had a stroke from the blood clots. COVID-19 doesn’t just take out the lungs, but can cause kidney failure, catastrophic heart disease, and blood clots that either give people strokes or require amputations. This is a seriously deadly disease.
Edwin, you can talk about risk management all you want to. But you don’t get to decide when the lives of OTHERS are riskable. You only get to decide that for yourself.
I wish we had a leader capable of leading without thinking of himself first and foremost. I wish we had a leader who cared more about people than about piling money in his corner. But I remember my grandmother saying “if wishes were horses, beggars would ride”.
We will need to do 20 million tests a day to be open by mid summer.
The U.S. will need to administer 20 million tests for the novel coronavirus each day by mid-summer in order to fully remobilize the economy in a safe fashion, according to new report from a Harvard panel of more than 45 experts in health, science and economics.
The figure far exceeds testing recommendations from other health experts. Former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb has said that the country will need to initially conduct up to 3 million tests per week to reopen. A separate estimate from Harvard University researchers says the U.S. must conduct between 500,000 and 700,00 tests per day by mid-May to begin reopening.”https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493722-us-needs-to-conduct-20-million-coronavirus-tests-per-day-to-fully-open
So where are those tests GNOem and the rest of the lying republicans say you can get right now?
Sweden has the highest death toll from Covid-19 of any Scandinavian country.
What about the young children? Do any of the back to work forget about the virus crew have any children? Who will take care of the kids when they get sick from the virus? Does that mean that those workers will be paid on a family leave deal from the meat packing plants or any other place that opens for business without testing?
“Paediatric services in the US could be overwhelmed by thousands of sick infants and young children – an overlooked group which has a higher risk of serious illness from Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, according to a new study.
While children are at a lower risk of fatality from Covid-19 compared to the elderly, the very young were most at risk of becoming seriously ill and the sheer weight of population numbers in the United States meant the need to be prepared for an influx of cases was urgent, the study said.
The research was led by Elizabeth Pathak, a population health scientist and president of the US think tank Women’s Institute for Independent Social Inquiry, and warned against a sense of complacency about the impact of the disease on children.”
Probably those AK47 boys and poor spellers don’t have any young children as they look kinda old for that, but they may have grandchildren. Their poor judgement could be a death sentence for that young’un.
I have no idea what the stats are on children. But there was a picture on tv today of a beautiful little black girl who had died of Covid. I didn’t catch her name or age or location, but she was maybe about ten. I realize that’s anecdotal, but still it’s heartbreaking.
addendum: I guessed wrong. I found her. She was 5, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/detroit-girl-5-dies-of-covid-19-shes-michigans-youngest-victim/ar-BB12UNwt
Mr. Arndt – your notion of “the economy” is entirely based on a fully enclosed framework – one that you are familiar with. One that you know the boundaries and extents of. One that you are familiar with the channels of intercourse and admixture within. One you can navigate without really having to look at your compass or sextant. One that you can judge your position from your view of the shoreline and its familiar landmarks. That is not the sea we now find ourselves sailing in, and the Erath’s magnetic field is in flux. We have crossed the equator and the stars you are accustomed to using as your guides are not there any longer, They have been replaced by a whole new sky.
I’m putting this situation in the way of analogy – because that is the best way to understand – what is happening is a REFRAMING of our way of life – and our understanding of “the economy” as only being “an economy”. Change is coming. Struggling to stay inside the old frame will only make oit more difficult to adapt to life in the new one. It’s a self-defeating waste of energy. The carbon-based economy is finished.
trump has shut down immigration completely. So good news for all of us gringos, we can pick tomatoes, render pork, and learn how to swat mosquitoes while doing so. I guess that means H2B as well, so there ya go. Unemployment will no longer be a way of life.
The gig economy will now change from picking strawberry’s to picking oranges, to picking vegetables all at H2B wages (maybe), life is funny like that.
oops, dummy didn’t say when though, so all of us gringos can relax. The other folks have our fat arse’s covered. Whewy, that was a close one.https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/493812-trump-says-he-will-sign-executive-order-temporarily-suspending
More drama from the drama queen hisownself.
Last updated: April 21, 2020, 12:30 GMT
April 14 – 15 Change in US Data
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
792,938
Deaths:
42,518
Speak of not letting up…..wingnuts are, once again, trying to take constitutional protections away from LGBTQ patients. What brain defect causes wingnuts to act cruel and vindictive towards fellow humans?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/trump-team-moves-to-scrap-protections-for-lgbtq-patients-206398
I believe that the general wingnut feeling is that any cookie of protection given to anyone else is taken away from themselves, and they can’t give away a cookie. Also, they need scapegoats.
Eve Fisher, it turns out red state republicans do have a plan. Turns out that the republican plan is death and not the 7 things that need to be done to open safely.
“”Propublica published a list of seven things that the experts recommended before America can open safely and up in have been done and none of those things will be done any time soon. There’s no contact tracing. And the United States cannot stay locked down indefinitely. That’s the one thing that the resident said is true. I don’t think the President and people like Governor Kemp are consciously planning this, but they’re removing all the alternatives to the only policy that is going to remain this time six weeks from now or eight weeks from now. Which is they’re moving toward the policy of what’s — “let’s take the punch.”
He’ll reopen and see what happens. Let’s accept that there may be hundreds of thousands, or some double hundreds of thousands, of Americans killed. They’re going to be mostly poor and minorities, mostly not going to be Trump voters. Let’s take that punch and push through and try to get to herd immunity as fast as possible.
I don’t think the President quite processes it quite that rationally, but maybe Governor Kemp does. I suspect Governor Desantis probably does. But that’s where with they’re going. When you don’t prepare any alternatives the only plan left available to you is the plan that you have and the plan that they’re working to is take the punch, let people take the casualties casualties. They’re mostly minorities and non-Trump voters.”
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/04/david-frum-provides-chilling-reason-why
That and they can’t collect unemployment. Josef Mengele would be so proud.
Public Health is what we need and the government has given us 1.25 billion to get’r done. Let’s hire those folks that will not longer be able to work as waiters and waitresses like North Dakota is doing.
“Louisiana, which has been hit hard by the virus, had only about 70 people working on tracing contacts this week. By comparison, North Dakota, with less than a fifth of Louisiana’s population and no serious outbreaks, has 250 case investigators and will soon bring on an additional 172 staffers.”
Red state fascist governor
“”Gov. Kristi Noem said Thursday that the $1.25 billion in federal funding that Congress sent to the state has “tied our hands” on how the state can allocate the funding and spend the money.
Noem said she can only spend it is on COVID-19 relief, which she doesn’t want to do.
“I can’t spend it to make up some of the difference that we’re seeing from our economy stalling,” Noem said. “It is not conservative to force a governor to spend money in areas that’s not necessary.”
She said Congress has informed her that they don’t want her to replace revenue loss in the state but want her to “go out and create a bunch of new government programs.””
So when the coolers at the National Guard camps are full and running over, think of who did it.
Noem can tell these people that spending money to prevent their deaths or find a cure for whatever ailed them is not necessary in right wing nut land.
Last updated: April 25, 2020, 21:32 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
954,360
Deaths:
54,049
Over 2000 bodies again and Noem’s whining like drumpf. What a deplorably, disgusting dog turd of an alleged kristian human being!
Buzzfeed has a couple of interactive charts you can use to see how your state is doing.
is.gd/9A8mTv
GNOem has been texting EB5 Rounds and Joop to see how in the hell she can run a scam on the 1.25 billion dollars. Even EB5 Rounds must be salivating on how he could get the old gang back together for some real grift…bonus..they don’t have to go to South Korea or China either for the theft or get cow or turkey crap on their Italian shoes.
The hate for veterans is astounding from EB5 Rounds, Thune and trump. Stealing masks and protective gear from those that care for veterans is treason.
“The Federal Emergency Management Agency diverted masks from veterans hospitals and into the government’s emergency stockpile, the executive in charge of the Department of Veterans Affairs claimed Saturday.
Health care workers at VA hospitals have for weeks warned of severely inadequate stocks of personal protective equipment. And in an interview with The Washington Post, the VA’s Executive in Charge Richard Stone pointed the finger at FEMA.
The agency, Stone told the Post, had directed vendors with VA orders to instead send equipment to FEMA for the federal stockpile of such supplies.
“I had 5 million masks incoming that disappeared,” Stone told the Post. Some VA hospitals, Stone acknowledged, are now on “austerity levels.”” https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/fema-diverted-masks-from-veterans-hospitals-va-official-says
They need to be jailed, like the crooks they are.
Thune preaching austerity…from a red state taking South Dakota who could not buy a bag of peanuts without the hated government paying our way with more than we pay in. Thune then complains that…something…dude is high man, and thinks the rest of us are as well.
““As we start thinking down the road in future iterations, my hope would be that it’s more fine tuning what we’ve already done rather than taking on big, aggressive new initiatives that are paid for by additional debt,” Senate Majority Whip John Thune (S.D.), the chamber’s No. 2 Republican, said in an interview. He warned that at some point, “we’re going to run out of capacity at the federal level.” Washington Post 04.25.2020
What a fraud. Soon he will be blaming China for the virus..while begging China to buy some damn soybeans. Hint, it’s your boy that you stand behind looking tall and empty that has caused all the death and economic misery.