Governor Kristi Noem revised her projection of the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, saying today that South Dakota will see the worst of it come July or August rather than May or June, as she projected on March 22.
No, that doesn’t mean she messed up. It doesn’t mean covid-19 is out of control. Quite the contrary—it means that things we are doing (we, the people, because as Governor Noem emphasizes, we’re all responsible for our own health, so don’t plan on giving the state any credit) are working… and in this case, “working” doesn’t mean making the problem go away faster. Unplugging the economy and staying home prevents everyone from getting sick at once, flooding our hospitals, and dying in much larger numbers. People get sicker at a slower rate, one the hospitals can handle and far fewer people die… but the pandemic and our necessary precautions last for many more months, until we invent and globally distribute a vaccine.
Governor Noem is reading that science:
Noem says she’s spent hours studying modeling forecasts for the potential number of state deaths.
“And the numbers we see are pretty encouraging because we have a state that is pretty rural and remote.” She added that South Dakota is not stopping the virus, but we are slowing the spread [staff, “Gov. Noem: Peak Infection Date Has been Pushed out to July or August,” KELO-TV, 2020.04.01].
…and urging us to practice it:
Noem says that people need to take responsibility for their health and encourages people to continue to practice good hygiene and social distancing. Overall she says efforts by South Dakotans has been effective.
“We have been able to bend the curve a great deal, we have been able to make sure we are keeping our hospital capacity at a manageable level and we are continuing to push our peak day farther into the future,” Noem said [Sarah McDonald, “Governor Noem Says People Need to Take Responsibility for Their Health,” KELO-TV, 2020.04.01].
That’s “flattening the curve“: the problem lasts longer but remains manageable and kills fewer people. That’s the right advice for all of us to follow. Noem’s job now is to enact the fiscal policies that help us weather the economic consequences of our correct action against the coronavirus.
Hi Cory,
Along the same lines, I liked Bill Gates’s comment, “Bringing the economy back and doing money, that’s more of a reversible thing… than bringing people back to life.”
Kind regards,
David
Give the gov a point, or even more, for that.
I wonder if the curve would flatten more and more rapidly with universal testing for the virus?
Maybe while stuck inside, heeding what science shows us as the way to save lives, our leaders could take this opportunity to catch up on a bit more scientific reading about saving lives like providing universal health care, reducing access to guns, shifting from fossil fuels . . . As long as we are finally listening to science, there is a whole symphony to hear.
I dunno, there are aspects of the bio-agricultural model of how to deal with infectious outbreaks that are appealing. When brucellocsis strikes, a infectious bacteria, we rapidly quarantine the herd, the pasture, the trucks – anything the herd touched or may have touched. Infection is infection mattering little whether a bacteria or virus.
Gunnison, Colorado defeated the Spanish Flu in 1918-19, using similar strict isolation and testing protocols.
On the other hand the just as rural Kansas as is South Dakota, suffered mightily from the Spanish Flu.
https://flatheadbeacon.com/2020/03/27/lets-1918-gunnison-colorado/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/gunnison-colorado-the-town-that-dodged-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic
Parts of the Governor’s lase-fair approach sound much like hope is a method.
The state should consider: a) discouraging tourism, b) discouraging snowbirds from returning, c) quarantine sites of outbreaks, d) assist with temporary housing for COVID19 workers to minimize infecting families & residents via markets, e) cleaning public bathrooms in parks every 1-3 hours depending on seasonal use, f) ban/delay funerals for COVID19 victims, g) ban meetings of more than 10 people, etc.
in her fireside chat this morning, live on fb… she sounded a lot like “ok we flattened the curve. I’m not giving a stay at home order so we can get it over with” (not a direct quote)
did i hear her right?
If the US Coast Guard is able to tell foreign flagged cruise ships to seek medical assistance for COVID19 at the nation of their registration . . . South Dakota should be able to ‘suggest’ that snowbirds remain at their state of residence or domicile, or at least out of South Dakota until the threat of COVID19 passes. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/01/825205607/coast-guard-tells-cruise-ships-with-covid-19-cases-to-stay-away-from-u-s-ports
She may be very well right about Lemmon, South Dakota – but we all know that Sioux Falls will be facing rapidly increasing numbers within the next month or so. We need a shelter-in-place soon – and if you saw the number of young people running around like nothing’s changed, you’d understand.
The thing is this: until our Governor gives an order, the local city councils aren’t going to impose a shelter-in-place, and until the local city councils do that, the mayors can’t enforce it. So we’re stuck, thanks to lack of leadership. At the very least, she could have officially said that she will officially approve and promote any city that chooses to do a shelter-in-place order.
Oh, and it’s also possible, Kristi, that someone will go to Lemmon, or Madison, or any other small town, to check up on relatives, and infect the whole town… What part of contagion is so difficult to understand?
From the NYTimes Interpreter today:
“Put another way, if you were a governor and data indicated that your state had only 100 cases, you might enact policy as if you had only 100 cases. But, at that moment, you might actually have 5,000 infected people, with 4,900 who are not yet visible, but, nonetheless, at risk of infecting others, of falling dangerously ill and of overwhelming your hospitals.”
Let’s see, Sioux Falls, the largest city in SD, with the only major airport, the confluence of two major interstates, and nothing but “advice”? Which just jumped from 41 to 71 cases overnight?
What could possibly go wrong?
Maybe she saw this new Lincoln Project on the untruths from Fox News to see the damage done by lying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=107&v=uy7pbJ2jvMo&feature=emb_title
Now, if we really are to believe her, she should get the legislators on Skype and demand Medicaid Expansion. If she does not do that, then all this flat stuff is meaningless.
I suppose rural areas could see slower spread, but it’s already spread about everywhere in the US. Absent widespread testing to eliminate areas, it is best to assume it is in most places in South Dakota. People who have it and transport it most likely don’t even know they were infected, because they are asymptomatic or have symptoms that can be shrugged off as a cold. Hey, I had something like that a few weeks ago. It often takes about a week to two weeks for symptoms to manifest, and during that time people are shedding the virus. By the time you see a case, it’s already spread around to quite a few folks.
It’s dumb to assume it isn’t already raging just below the surface. My Beijing daughter warned me in mid-January that this was coming our way, and she was right. In early February she said it was in the US. It’s already in South Dakota and has been for weeks. There is no excuse for acting stupidly.
Only the dumb need a stay at home order to do what is protective of their, their loved ones and their communities’ health. But there are a lot of dumb folks in South Dakota, and Noem seems to be one of them.
Navy will boot this commander for taking care of his sailors in this pandemic. What a disgrace to relieve a dedicated Naval commander. Not that long ago, a military man had respect, now, trump takes care of convicted war criminals, while letting go this hero.
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Navy is expected to relieve the commander of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, who wrote a scathing letter that leaked to the public asking the Navy for stronger measures to control a coronavirus outbreak onboard, U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-navy-expected-to-relieve-commander-of-coronavirus-stricken-aircraft-carrier-idUSKBN21K3B9
This man saved sailors lives, while Washington works to save trumps reelection, by any means possible.
Huge hat tips to: the Cheyenne Sioux River Tribe for setting up checkpoints screening entrants. There is no need to re-learn the sad lessons from the small pox blankets debacles.
https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/cheyenne-river-sioux-tribe-creates-checkpoints-to-protect-against-covid-19/article_948aee93-5131-5027-ad1f-2e4dd1783dd5.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1
And to the governor for calling up the SDNG to build / staff clinics / hospitals to care for patients whether for COVID19 patients or to off-set the other needs of local SF & RC hospitals. Circumstances force us into a surge capacity situation. It matters not who does what. It matters that we are all rowing in the same direction.
I hope they’re prepared to build in the reservations. Cheyenne River has only 12 beds.
Francis, with universal testing, we could flatten the curve and ease the social and economic restrictions. If we knew right now every person who carried the infection, we could say, “You one million people, go home, or go to the hospital, right now.” The rest of us could stay the heck away from them and from their close relations. Folks who test and see they don’t have it could go to the office or the factory and get some work done.
Snowbirds—folks here have mentioned that second-wave threat more than once; has the topic of all those emigrés coming back hit the mainstream press yet? Is anyone else talking about the danger those well-off retirees pose in dragging possible infection back from their far-flung winter homes?
And what about all those RVers? Are they still roving the country, or are they hunkering down at their current campsites?
An Iowa tv station says 4 ethanol plants are donating fuel to make hand sanitizer. They are Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy (SIRE), Lakeview Plymouth Energy, Absolute Energy and Western Iowa Energy.
Is Poet doing anything similar?
Disappointing, but it will pay off in lives saved.
“The Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board is closing all public beaches and pools for the entire summer, canceling summer recreational programs and team sports that do not allow social distancing and shuttering all of its buildings until further notice to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
“In announcing the closures Thursday night, the Park Board noted, ‘It’s clear that social distancing will be part of life in Minnesota for many months to come’.”
Last updated: April 03, 2020, 12:45 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
245,442
Deaths:
6,098
“Having some states shelter in place while others are still free to roam is like having a peeing section in a swimming pool.” @irishrygirl
Good point about the snowbirders and RVers, Cory. Is anyone keeping an eye on any of them at all? Probably not.
Democrats, stay home and stay alive. A healthy dose of MSNBC or CNN will do your soul some good. Spend your time calling and informing voters, Blue wave 2020!
The National Stockpile’s mission statement was officially changed today after Kushner said it is the exclusive property of the federal government, not the states.
The official government webpage for the Strategic National Stockpile was altered Friday to seemingly reflect a controversial description of the emergency repository that White House adviser Jared Kushner offered at a news conference Thursday evening.
According to a brief online summary on the Department of Health and Human Services website, the stockpile’s role “is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well.”
But hours earlier, the text characterized the stockpile as the “nation’s largest supply of life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies for use in a public health emergency severe enough to cause local supplies to run out.”
The revision comes after Kushner argued at the White House coronavrus task force press briefing Thursday that the stockpile’s reserves are exclusively the property of the federal government.
Excluding people from other states, such as RVers, tourists, hunters, etc, on the sole basis that because they come from out of state they are not deserving of medical care or safety in SD seems just another symptom of the xenophobia that has severely infected the minds of so many people. This infection damages our humanity by weakening our empathy for others. It leads to the devaluation of individuals for the sole reason that they come from outside SD. Xenophobia is a disease that is based on irrational fear and selfishness and undermines morality.
Testing and monitoring all individuasl that move about in our society, whether intrastate or interstate, may be one rational way to limit the spread of COVID 19, but excluding people and denying potentially needed treatment in SD is fundamentally at odds with decency. Locking the border and excluding an RVer from entering SD simply redirects any danger of infection somewhere else rather than taking steps to deal with it directly. That seems a classic symptom of pure selfishness – protect ourselves and the hell with anyone outside our borders.
Last updated: April 03, 2020, 17:23 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
265,506
Deaths:
6,786
US lost 1200 citizens to c-virus, the largest one day total of any Nation, so far. Dr Fauci says the two drugs drumpf pushed have not shown much effect against Covid 19.
iowa guv expanded forced business/school closings until April 30th. Schools were closed until April 13th.
BCB may have a point but there is no reason we can’t require every RV’er to be quarantined at designated camp sites if they wish to enter the state. Same with everyone else. We have gates on all of the interstates already. When they get closed in the winter time to protect the public is that any different?
My mothers country of origin, New Zealand, has completely locked down the country and is going from town to town testing everyone. Actions like that are what is needed instead of what we are getting.
Another take on who should be leading this country:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTJnP0VctWY
The fact is that if we were to aggressively go after this thing we could get back to a life of normalcy but using the direction that this country and state is now taking we will simply have to hope we can, individually, avoid getting sick till there is a vaccine. That vaccine is most of two years away. How much damage to the economy and how many deaths before then.
Hi BCB!
Thanks for a thought-provoking argument. I hope you don’t mind if I gadfly it a bit.
First, I’m in 100% agreement with you in despising covid, xenophobia, and selfishness. However, the nature of a pestilence is that we need to limit contact with one another in order to beat it.
A few days ago, a woman was in a maternity center, and even though her husband wasn’t feeling the best, he came to visit her. Turns out that he had covid, and spread it to the mother, newborn, and possibly a staff member.
Would you consider it “selfish” or “xenophobic” for a hospital to restrict this man from visiting his wife and child? Probably not. But how exactly is that different from the state government restricting people from visiting our state?
Aha, or maybe the proper empathetic policy at state borders is the reverse. Maybe we should stop people from leaving South Dakota so as to not potentially infect other states and contribute to overwhelming their health care systems. In that vein, if Florida/Arizona strives for their most moral policy, they would prevent snowbirds from going north.
Kind regards,
David
PS Or this whole interstate pandemic morality question could be made moot if a federal Stop Moving directive was given.
Governor Cuomo says this “”New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced that he would sign an executive order giving the state the power to confiscate unused medical equipment and supplies from private hospitals and other healthcare providers and redistribute the material to facilities that have an immediate need for them.
During his daily briefing in Albany, New York, on Friday, Cuomo said he would use National Guard troops if necessary to gather the equipment and redistribute it to hot spots such as New York City and Long Island with the understanding that it would be returned later or paid for in full by the state.”
Damn, that boy don’t play. What we’re seeing is the ending of capitalism and the beginning of a hybrid form of society. One that will take the billion or so people from poverty and give them a voice. Rid ourselves of the poison that pollutes this planet and replace it with clean energy, and more importantly, rid ourselves of the plague of vultures that find profit in our death and misery.
David, my objection is to refusing to test or treat people that might have the virus only because they come from outside South Dakota. For example, if someone wants to return to or move to the Black Hills from spending the winter in Arizona that person should be treated no differently than another person that spent the winter in Vermillion in a sumer teaching job at USD and now wants to return to or move to the Black Hills.
Pardon the intrusion, Mr Bergan, but,the gentleman in the report was exposed to corona virus and knew he was sick hen he went to visit his wife.
You make it sound as if the guy was unaware he was carrying, unless I completely misread your post. If I misread it, you have my humblest apologies.
Last updated: April 03, 2020, 20:30 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
271,152
Deaths:
6,946
Now iowa’s guv is lecturing Dr Fauci. This should end well.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/gop-governor-refusing-to-implement-stay-at-home-order-says-dr-fauci-doesnt-have-all-the-information/
Last updated: April 03, 2020, 23:44 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
276,318
Deaths:
7,391
Looking at your reporting Mike, and knowing that the number infected is way low due to lack of testing.
My god it’s growing fast. 😳😢
Quarantining is practicing best science. BCB – try bringing your brucellosis infected cattle into SD and tell us how that works out. Of course, the RVers, and snowbirds may not be identified as infected. The problem with this virus is 25-50% of infected persons are unaware of being infected and are carriers. It’s sad that folks able of working a keyboard appear to lack a basic understanding of high school science.
Not surprisingly, the red states are the least disciplined with restricting personal movements. They are less inclined to believe in science. They are more inclined to believe a reality TV celebrity.
Enjoy living in the swimming pool with the peeing section.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html
John, good point on brucellosis infected cattle. Of course these RVers and snowbirds are infected, they’ve been in infected areas. When you travel out of this country, they always ask on your return, have you been where there was livestock and have you walked in those areas. We’re kidding ourselves if we think otherwise.
Hi Mike & BCB!
Yes, the man in the article did lie to the hospital staff about not-having covid symptoms when he went to see his wife. That makes him pretty scummy in my book, and I could have clarified that in my post.
However, as John said, many people can be carrying and transmitting the disease without having symptoms, so the same type of situation can still present the tougher moral scenario of restricting access to a guy who doesn’t think he’s sick, e.g. like a snowbird coming to SD from a high-infection-rate city.
My dad wintered in Florida and we’re talking regularly about whether or not it makes sense for him to try to come back to his home in Sioux Falls this month. I lean toward thinking he shouldn’t, not out of xenophobia, but because the transfer would expose him a higher chance of contracting covid than just hunkering down where he’s at. He could accidentally pick it up in an airport and then bring it to our family in SD, or suffer with it himself. (He had 8 months of chemo last year, so his immune system is the one that concerns me the most in my family.) That issue’s been on my mind for awhile now, and when BCB put it in terms of selfishness and empathy, it brought an angle I hadn’t considered.
I still think that Dad’s better off hunkering down in Florida, both for his sake and ours. Is that selfishness… or just prudence for everyone concerned? Similarly, if the state closed its borders, I think it would likewise be just a strategy to help contain the virus both within and without South Dakota. I don’t think it’s a fear of outsiders. Nor is it the locals trying to hoard our vast medical resources for ourselves and withhold them from our neighbors. It’s just another way to stop people from infecting one another so that we don’t sow the poisonous seed into uninfected communities.
And we all bear this burden equally. I don’t get to go to Florida, and Dad doesn’t get to come here.
Kind regards,
David
SD, so determined to shoot itself in both feet. 😢😢😢 Thanks for nothing, Klueless Kristi.
is.gd/vcnCWq
David Bergan, A person who knowingly has a contagious disease and knowingly puts other people’s, including children’s, lives at risk should probably be isolated in a prison for a good stretch of years. No excuses for this behavior.
David, I don’t necessairily think it is selfishness to want the best for your loved ones, although I suppose in a certain sense it could be classified that way. My objection to excluding RVers and out of staters is that if we have the resources to help others, as well as loved ones, we should use those resources rather than hoarding them. Justifying hoarding by excluding people potentially in need based solely on where they were born or where they are coming from strikes me as xenophobic selfishness. Limiting people coming from an area with a high infection rate because of an established increased danger to everyone, however, seems a different story altogether.