Farmers, Donald Trump doesn’t hate you. He just doesn’t know anything about you… or care.
Independent blogger and experienced commodities trader John Tsistrian explains that Trump has senselessly placed our beef and wheat producers at a disadvantage by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnernship and leaving us out of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership with which eleven of our more rational trade partners replaced it:
Our state’s cattle producers are particularly at risk because of the Japan-Australia connection in this deal. Kevin Kester, President of the National Cattleman’s Beef Association (NCBA), notes that the treaty will result in a 28% cut in Japanese tariffs on Australian beef, which doesn’t bode well for American cattle producers, for whom Japan is their top overseas customer. In 2016, Japan bought $1.3 billion worth of American beef, a figure that will probably be significantly reduced now that the Pacific Rim alliance is in place. Kester says that “the U.S. beef industry is at risk of losing significant market share in Japan” unless immediate action takes place. It’s hard to imagine what sort of “immediate action” the United States can take now that our country is on the outside looking in.
…Meantime, South Dakota’s wheat producers have their own reasons for concern. By April, Japan’s tariff on wheat imported from Canada and Australia will drop by 12%, making American wheat so expensive that our country’s wheat industry faces an “imminent collapse” of its business with Japan, according to U.S. Wheat Association President Vince Peterson. What makes the loss of the Japanese market for American farm goods particularly painful and ironic is that the United States has long had a sizable agricultural trade surplus with that country, amounting to $12 billion in 2017 [John Tsitrian, “Thanks to Trump and His Foolish TPP Decision, South Dakota Ag Producers Are on the Outside Looking In,” The Constant Commoner, 2019.01.03].
Trump’s ignorance of farmers’ business needs is also keeping all ag producers from getting the market information they usually get in January:
USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson says the USDA crop reports that were set to be released Jan. 11th will be delayed because of the the government shutdown.
“They do take some time to put together and complete the analysis and compile those reports, so we need to have our staff in the office in order to do that,” he says. “At this time we’re going to delay those and we will be putting them out once funding becomes available and we can bring staff in.”
He tells Brownfield that includes the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), crop production reports, grain stocks, and rice stocks.
Johansson says it will take about a week to release the reports once funding resumes [Arnie Simpson, “USDA Crop Reports Delayed Due to Government Shutdown,” Brownfield Ag News, 2019.01.04].
This lack of data isn’t just a hassle for bloggers who like to play with spreadsheetes; real businesspeople, producers and traders alike, depend on this data for real big-dollar decisions:
The WASDE regularly moves agricultural commodities markets. But delaying this month’s report, in particular, is an especially “bad, bad deal” for the market, Ted Seifried, chief market strategist at Zaner Group in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.That’s in part because the January report finalizes crop production figures from the prior year, which traders and producers use to plan for the coming season.
Not having the data, “makes it very difficult for the market to decide on which way we should go,” he said.
When the shutdown began choking access to USDA data late last month, “a very significant public good was removed from the market,” said Sara Menker, chief executive officer of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data analysis company.
Gro Intelligence, which provides data feeds as well as crop and weather forecasts, is offering free access to its platformfor the duration of the shutdown in an effort to mitigate the data gap left by the USDA, Menker said.
“It is very bad timing,” Seifried said of the USDA report delays. “Most importantly, it makes it very difficult for producers to decide what they’re going to do for a marketing plan and decide what to do for their acreage allocation” [Jeremy Hill and Isis Almeida, “Shutdown Data Delay Is ‘Bad Deal’ for Farmers Who Need to Make Crop Plans,” Bloomberg, 2019.01.04].
Donald Trump has cut farmers off from markets and now is cutting them off from the data they need to figure out how best to turn a profit in those unnecessarily restricted markets. But hey, farmers: if Donald Trump can get by without international allies or data, why can’t you?
Update 10:01 CST: An eager reader points out the shutdown is also blocking crucial financial loans for farmers:
The USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) managers and supervisors were instructed to cancel all previously arranged loan closings when the shutdown started, according to the agency’s shutdown plan posted online. Agency officials could not be reached for comment Thursday.
…U.S. grain farmers have been increasingly turning to the FSA for loan assistance as they struggle with low commodity prices and trade issues in recent years. Banks, too, have relied on the agency to help guarantee the loans they are issuing to farmers – particularly for shorter-term farm operational loans.
“This is the time of year when farmers are talking to their bankers to get operational loans, and the money from the federal government is not coming in,” said Ted Seifried, vice president of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group in Chicago, who works with farmers [P.J. Huffstutter, “As Loans and Aid Dry Up, U.S. Farmers Face Fresh Challenge from Shutdown,” Reuters via Agriculture.com, 2019.01.03].
The Trump shutdown may also nix the tariff reparations Trump promised to keep from losing rural votes:
The government last year also pledged up to $12 billion in aid, much of it in direct payments to soy, pork, and dairy farmers, to help offset some of the losses for crops hit by retaliatory Chinese tariffs imposed in response to Washington’s tariffs on Chinese goods.
The deadline to apply for the aid is January 15, yet the FSA offices where farmers must submit their applications have been shuttered since December 28 [Huffstutter, 2019.01.03].
Well, at least podiatrists will see more business this year… from all the folks who are shooting themselves in the foot.
Adderall can make you crazy man, and dumb you down further.
It’s the Schumer shutdown.
That is a fact.
I will be the one to shut it down, I’m not gonna blame you for it, is he lying??? Naw
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1079159121277001731?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1079159121277001731&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkingpointsmemo.com%2F
Lordy, your dummy is talking directly to Senator Schumer!! Doesn’t get clearer than that.
If Drumpf and South Dakota’s pathetic congressional screwups had a conscience here is where they’d have a “Custer” moment- that time when you realize your brash decisions maybe weren’t such a good idea afterall.
Custer and a bunch of cavalrymen paid for their sins. Will these assclowns in DC pay for their’s?
Trump has created the perfect storm in farm country, yet Fox News and the GOP Party minions will keep convincing farmers to vote against their own interests and for Trump. He knows that. People are drawn to Trump like they’re drawn to professional wrestling. In their boring lives they want drama, and Trump delivers.
“Are you not entertained?” (Maximus in Gladiator)
Make no mistake about it, this is a Trump shutdown, he has repeatedly owned and anyone that says otherwise is just plain ignorant.
Additionally, have you noticed McConnell’s absence in the past few days? The last I saw Mitch he was hiding out in the senate men’s bathroom.
@Ror … Excellent observation. Entertainment factor is spiking. *Much like those who attend the anti-Mulsim Hate Speech rallies in Aberdeen.
@ Roger … ouch! :)
I am truely amazed at the power Jason writes that Schumer has. The newly democratic controlled House immediately passed a bill to reopen the government. According to Jason, however, Senate minority leader democrat Schumer has cornered poor old Mitch McConnell, majority leader, and forced him to refuse to bring the House bill before the Senate for a vote.
Schumer’s power is even more remarkable given the fact that this House bill is essentially the same bill already put forth by McConnell and passed by the Senate a just before January 3. It was rejected at that time by the House when republicans still controlled the House. Was Schumer also able to control that Republican House vote Jason?
Wow, Schumer must be a real miracle worker of he can can control a republican majority in both House and the Senate! Or maybe Jason simply has no idea how the Senate functions and falls hook, line and sinker for right wing propaganda? Or could be be that Jason just likes to post obvious lies to get our dander up?
Dang, wouldn’t it be great for our country if Schumer actually could control McConnell and the republican majority in the Senate. Then all Americans (North and South) would begin to to see great things happen, including approval of the House’s continued effort to protect dreamers. Likewise, Schumer would assure that it would no longer even consider trying to undermine the key promise of the United States by funding a wall that represents, like the East Berlin wall, the denigration and diminishment of the political and human freedom the U.S. has stood for, without providing an iota of meaningful security to anyone.
Bear Sez … Jason just likes to post obvious lies to get our dander up? He/she tries, BCB but getting him/her wound up is much easier and more entertaining to the group. I like when he’s really in a corner and he goes all female epithets and begins to weep silently.
Truth Is … This is Limbaugh and Hannity’s shutdown. Trumpy was set to concede the wall like he conceded repealing Obamacare until white-wing talk radio went apoplectic. No dignity Trump quickly went to his security blanket and won’t stop until Rush and Sean say it’s futile. Then he’ll abandon the wall, claim victory and move on to starting a war.
We all seem to agree on the harms; only Jason appears to disagree on the responsible party.
Trump shut down US producers access to TPP.
Trump shut down trade with China, for which he had to cough up tariff reparations/rural voter bribes.
Trump shut down the USDA. Everyone in Congress would be happy to send Trump funding to keep USDA running. Trump refuses to keep USDA running, for other personal reasons.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/federal-agencies-directed-hold-off-raises-during-shutdown
They almost got away with this.
The part about wheat prices reminded me of 1980.
I think US farmers exported a lot of wheat to the USSR, but President Carter felt it ethically imperative to sanction them by cutting off those desperately needed exports and boycotting the Olympics in Moscow. Political historians say that action played a big role in causing Carter’s reelection loss.
Evidently farmers were more aware then. Of course, the lying Faux Noise didn’t exist then either so they knew the Facts, it was Carter’s decision.
Do farmers know that the present government shutdown and trade debacles are entirely this president’s responsibility?
4,000 workers in South Dakota without a paycheck. So while they are without a paycheck, no money is being spent. January 2019 tax receipts for sales is gonna be a little on the lean side. Hope Nelson and his goons have some kind of resolution to bring to the table that does not include beating up on immigrants and women.
Washington Post 1/5/2019
Health and Human Services (FDA) 1,600
Interior 1,400
Agriculture 1,000
These are your neighbors and friends who are screwed because a fat Russian had indigestion or mental incompetence.
Exactly the truth for Federal employees, who we depend on, especially in our fine State, whether we know it or not.
John Thune isn’t concerned but blames dems for the shutdown and hopes we’ll come around to recognizing the need for national defense or security (wishing dems would solve the wall dilemma republicans have imposed on the world). He and McConnell are hiding. Twitter
In Colorado we see Cory Gardner having a come to Jesus moment as he realizes he may be just as unemployed as the workers in his state.
“Colorado has more than 50,000 federal employees, many of whom are still on the job. But the state also has large numbers of federal departments affected by the partial shutdown, including about 6,500 workers with the Interior Department, 3,700 employees with the Agriculture Department, and 1,400 workers with the Department of Transportation. Fewer people in office parks means fewer people going out to lunch.
Right across the street from the Federal Center in Lakewood, Tokyo Joe’s fast food restaurant franchise manager Jolie Voss says 30 to 40 percent of her customer base are federal workers.
“You kind of just get used to the same faces,” Voss says. “Bob from accounting is going to come in and get his white chicken bowl, so to not see those faces as often, you really notice.”https://www.npr.org/2019/01/05/682333198/not-out-to-lunch-businesses-that-rely-on-federal-workers-suffer-the-shutdown?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=food”
Indeed fewer people going to lunch, going to spend their money to help with sales taxes and all of those good things. Of course, our tall Number 2 will need not worry about all of that in South Dakota because he is just so a doggone Number 2 guy.
In Alaska, no fishing. Gonna lose a billion bucks there. You know, you lose a billion here and a billion there and pretty quick, it amounts to some money lost. But we can take it, right trumpian republicans?
“The partial federal government shutdown is casting uncertainty over the major fishing industry based in the Bering Sea, which has an annual catch valued at more than $1 billion.
January marks the opening of a number of major fisheries in Alaska, including the 3 billion pounds of pollock that will be processed into fish sticks and McDonald’s Filet-O-Fish sandwiches. And while the openings are set to go forward as scheduled, some of the boats and one entire fishing fleet are still missing federal permits and inspections needed before they can leave the docks.
The shutdown has closed down much of the National Marine Fisheries Service, which oversees the Bering Sea fisheries. People working in the industry say they’re not sure if or when boats will be able to get the needed authorizations.” https://www.npr.org/2019/01/04/682061603/government-shutdown-may-hamper-alaskas-lucrative-fishing-industry?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=food
A red state, say it ain’t so. trumpian republicans are like maggots, they just devour it all.
Sen. Gardner’s voter base is in the ugly part of the state, where tourists never go. Oil rigs and fracking. Stinky air, rednecks, roughnecks and no necks. But, he knows which side of his tortilla has cheese. CO is a blue state and Gardner needs to play it close to the center. My final restaurant (where I worked before retirement) was on the same block as Tokyo Joe’s and we also made the daily nut from the Federal Center. Every day the federal workers are furloughed is a big hardship. For what? The money for border security that’s been already allocated hasn’t even been spent, yet.
Also affected by Ag and the government shutdown is the EBT or food stamp program.
The agency is reporting that most EBT recipients will get the full amount for January, but if the shutdown continues into February the program won’t be funded. If this is the case, there will be a whole bunch of red state republicans on food stamps doing without, but that is okay, Trump said they will understand because they want his wall.
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/01/04/despite-shutdown-trump-administration-continues-work-to-begin-oil-drilling-in-anwr/
Another thing, Rangers are on paid duty in Drumpf’s hotel keeping clock tower tours going. Has this crumb violated enough rules and regs to convince wingnuts it is past time to remove the stain?
“Gun nuts” (who today cart dozens of AR 15s into Vegas casinos, churches and theaters) go back to Frank Mayer, 22 in 1872, a buffalo runner as told to Colorado author of 1958 Buffalo Harvest, ___Roth. Mayer routinely shot 200 bison at a time (with 205 bullets-supplied for free by the military). There were maybe 5000 such gun nuts then. Mayer referred to them as juvenile delinquents.
Trump’s exceedingly dangerous treason with Putin is evident in his sugarcoated lies about withdrawing our military. Daily Kos staff writer Mark Summer lays out the depth of the stunning whitewash Trump attempts in “Trump’s Russian Propaganda (1.04.19), when Soviets entered Afghanistan to defend the puppet leader they replaced for the puppet leader they had just executed.
Drip, drip, drip . . . the rural economics of small towns continue imploding with Shopko closing 6 SD stores. https://www.sdnewswatch.org/
Farmers don’t have access to necessary crop production stats, necessary pricing stats, exporting stats and other necessary info with gubmint facilities shut down.
Tired of winning?
They aren’t planting in January Mike.
Mot farmers also do crop rotation so they already know what they are planting for the most part.
All Schumer has to do is vote for what the people of America want.
Trump already won because Acosta showed that a wall works.
Trump hasn’t won a damn thing except now being noted for presiding over the longest government shutdown history.
Senator Schumer doesn’t have the authority to open or shut down the government, that lies with Mitch and Trump. Trump owns this shutdown as has been proven by his own comments.
Farmers may not plant crops in January, but they most likely start planning and ordering seeds and arranging for bank and government loans to cover their seed orders.
Army Corps of Engineers has found money for the wall. They can move money appropriated to help California wildfire rebuilding (Trump hates California as much as he hates Mexicans) and money appropriated to help Puerto Rico (Trump’s from New York. He’s hated Puerto Ricans longer than he’s even hated Mexicans). Will Trump pull the trigger and move the money?
And farmers also aren’t making the best planting plans with the fullest data possible, thanks to Trump’s shutdown and tariff uncertainty.
Like always, Jason is wrong. In south Louisiana we consider planting dates for field corn to be February 25th to March 20th. Dead of winter, Jason.
Farmers can’t figure crop rotation without knowing what crops will likely be the most lucrative. If weather is not conducive to planting corn, beans may need to be increased. They need up to date financial and weather reports which they don’t get with shutdown government.
John, my hometown Cherokee, iowa opened a brand new Shopko in the past year or so. It is closing. K-Mart in Cherokee is closing. Sears closed a long time ago.
Shopko, K-Mart and Sears were dinosaurs. If you’re not growing, you’re dying.
Amazon stores are coming. Very high tech shopping. To counterattack Kroger is starting electronic item location. You put your food list in your phone app and it directs you to the item in the store. The app checks you out. No stopping at the checkout counter. Saves time and steps. Also, I’ve begun having my groceries and dry goods delivered. Very satisfied and I’m picky about my perishables.
https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=16008589011
@MFI … I looked up Cherokee. You’re pretty close to SD, huh? Town of about 5,000. I guess stores like Shopko are pretty vital. Hope something replaces it and you don’t have to drive to Sioux City just for stuff.