In the Making-Stuff-Up Department, Donald Trump appeared to be daydreaming out loud when he tweeted that China is going to reduce or remove tariffs on American cars:
Beijing has not yet confirmed the move and President Trump’s advisers appeared less certain about the agreement.
…Asked whether China would remove the 40% auto tariffs Larry Kudlow, the US president’s top economic adviser, said he “believed that commitment was made”.
In a briefing to reporters, he also said the US did not yet have a “specific agreement” on auto tariffs.
Another senior White House figure, trade adviser Peter Navarro, said only that the issue “certainly came up” in discussions at the G20 [“Trump’s China Car Tariffs Claim Sows Confusion,” BBC News, 2018.12.04].
Even if the actual adults in the White House can turn this fantasy into reality, German automakers will reap more of the rewards:
Seven of the top 10 models manufactured in the US and exported to China in 2017 were made by German automakers BMW and Mercedes-Benz, according to data from research firm LMC Automotive. Among the top 20 models manufactured in the US that were sent to in China in 2017, US automakers were out-exported 186,618 to 76,074 [Sean O’Kane, “Trump Says China Might Kill Car Tariffs, Which Would Boost Foreign Automakers,” The Verge, 2018.12.03].
If (and I don’t know why we keep letting Donald Trump grab headlines with mere “ifs”) China actually promised to reduce auto tariffs, they may have just been blowing smoke up Trump’s all-too-easily lifted skirt:
The only way the US reaps most of the benefits from this deal, experts said, is if China and US sign a formalfree-trade deal, since those agreements supersede WTO rules. So if Trump and Xi sign such a deal with the zero-tariff provision in it — and Congress ratifies it — then US automakers would see the most benefits.
But few experts currently believe Washington and Beijing will sign such a complicated and massive agreement. They’re having trouble agreeing on how to stop an escalating trade war, let alone figuring out how to reduce most trade barriers.
It’s therefore possible that Beijing said it would reduce the tariffs, which were raised to 40 percent in July in response to Trump’s trade war, as a mostly empty gesture to placate the president [Alex Ward, “Trump’s Car Deal with China Is Great—for Other Countries,” Vox, 2018.12.03].
Two more years of being led by a nincompoop—then maybe we can return to having a leader who knows what he or she is talking about.
Oh, for pity’s sake, when did Larry Kudlow become an expert on anything?
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/jpmorgan-warns-investors-trumps-tweets-purported-china-deal-appear-completely-fabricated/
Drumpf and fabrication? Say it ain’t so.
Larry proved his worth by not sitting in Iowa checking his SNAP balance.
GM and other automakers have already moved production to China for the Chinese market to avoid Chinese tariffs, and GM’s Chinese partner has been stealing GM’s technology. Many things about our non-reciprocal trade relationship with China need to change, but I don’t think Trump is up to the task.
Kudlow gets foodstamps? You know this how, liar?
I do know you are a lying weasel and I mean absolutely no offense to weasels.
http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/
No degree in Economics. makes wrong economic predictions. Wall Street career amid drug and alcohol problems.
Not qualified to be dog catcher.
So Cory is mad that US workers for BMW will still have jobs……
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/12/3/18124426/trump-china-car-deal-tariff-trade-war
Great for South Korea, Japan and Germany.
Kudlow’s WS career ‘ended’ among drug and alcohol problems.
Does anybody know with absolute certainty if Old Sarge is a South Dakota resident? Does he get SNAP in the state where he resides.
Old Sarge has never given any indication that he is a resident of South Dakota and hides under his anonymous name.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/4/18125472/trump-china-trade-war-xi-auto-tariffs
White House issues statement saying Drumpf oversells his non-plan plan with China. It has not been agreed to.
Please point to the paragraph in Cory’s comment where he is “mad” that U.S. workers still have jobs. I read the comments twice and couldn’t find anything like that.
Cory wrote:
“Even if the actual adults in the White House can turn this fantasy into reality, German automakers will reap more of the rewards”
Roger recognizes the efforts of bad-faith commenters to shove fabricated statements in my mouth instead of dealing with the uncomfortable truth: the purported leader of the free world is touting a trade agreement for which there is no signed paper and no independent corroboration. That point is supported by JP Morgan’s sensible advice to investors.
That an investment firm needs to warn us that comments from the White House may be completely fabricated shows us how bad the Trump Administration is for this country.
Kudlow himself said today, “It hasn’t been signed and sealed and delivered yet.” There is no written deal. Trump declares today that “I am a tariff man” and claims, in contravention of all reasonable economic theory and experience, that tariffs “will always be the best way to max out our economic power.” The Dow responds by dropping 600 points by midday.
So you are happy that BMW workers will keep their jobs?
Cory’s problem is he thinks it’s OK for China to pillage the US.
I have never seen Cory present a plan that is better than Trumps.
No President before Trump tried to help the US against China.
No, my problem here is that Donald Trump announced a trade deal that appears not to exist. Fabricating statements about my misinterpreted “feelings” about potential impacts of this seemingly non-existent trade deal really jumps the ontological gun. Jason, why don’t you prove to us that the trade deal exists first.
Of course there is going to be a trade deal.
I think the issue is you think China can win this trade war. That is not the case.
Brooking Inst 12.11 Obama Pivot to Asia. 2009 HRC Biden Huntsman to China.
Dow Jones,25,136.91 −689.52 (2.67%) Dec 4, 2:26 PM EST · Investors know there is not gonna be a trade deal anytime soon. Democrats will have to pave the way once again.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/04/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html
Dow down 799 points. Drumpf’s jig with China is up.
Ole Baldy is such a completely incompetent liar. I can see why Jason and OS like him. Fire and fury, signifying less than nothing real, but creating hardship and difficulty.
C’mon Mueller! ASAP!
In the first few days of President Obama’s days in office Rush Limbaugh, et al. were praying for the new president’s plans to fail. Mitch McConnell said that the new president would only serve one term and vowed to not work with the new president.
And now Old Sarge lectures us about working with this arrogant reckless president.
“Of course there is going to be a trade deal”—on what evidence do you base that claim, Jason?
I suppose a commoner like Jason or me offering baseless speculation does little harm. But the occupant of the White House harms markets, American credibility, and prospects for signing real deals by fabricating claims that catch even his own advisors off guard.
This is what it’s like having a country run from the john by Archie Bunker.
ps OldSferbrains, if the markets fail, it will have had nothing to do with anything I could say. You and yer bud Drumpf, otoh, will be bigly responsible for the collapse.
Check the white bond market and see how close it is to inversion, which is a likely precursor of economic downturn. Bet you won’t find a single reference to mfi anywhere around it.
Aw, nevermind, you prefer to waste everyone’s time making false claims and whining about everything and everyone.
Cory,
China wouldn’t survive if we stopped buying their goods and they know it.
So what are your plans to fix it without tariffs?
So has China agreed to reduce or end its auto tariffs, or did the White House lie to us again?
If they they don’t, the additional tariffs will be applied immediately.
What don’t you understand?
I see you still have no plan.
This is really creative. There’s an opinion piece in the Strib from Bloomberg written by Tyler Cowen, an econ prof at George Mason Univ. He’s writing in support of Ole Baldy, trying to give him some credit, but it’s really kind of painful to read.
Cowen says–
It’s really just can kicking but everybody does it a lot.
Symbolic elements are just as important as real ones.
At least China is not getting worse.
Ole Baldy has talked with China without destroying relations.
See? Kinda sad.
He does offer an honest positive, if it’s true. China has pledged to ban exports of fentanyl. I wonder about this because I haven’t heard it elsewhere. Does anyone have a reliable source on this?
Read the piece for yourself. It’s definitely opinion, not much meat.
https://goo.gl/Sa2VZH
Why should we believe anything Trump or his administration says? Jason seems to know more about everything than any of us. Is he an inside informant?
Mueller’s plan is the real inside information https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=742&v=fmeeiA3pMuQ Look for other shoes to drop on trump’s melon.
South Carolina looses jobs, China gains. The trump party marches on over the cliff.
“Volvo’s new South Carolina plant, which opened in June, is gradually ramping up to produce the S60 sedan. In 2021, the plant will begin assembling the Volvo XC90 SUV. Once it’s making both models, the plant will ship about half of its vehicles to foreign markets, according to Volvo’s original plan.
But if the U.S. dispute with China isn’t resolved soon, those plans could be changed, too.
“We … thought Charleston could build cars for China,” Samuelsson said. “That will not work.”
Instead, he said, the company is making plans to build the S60 in China for sale to customers there. Volvo is owned by Chinese automaker Geely.” USA Today 12/05/2018
Making America Grate.
Jerry,
What is your plan to stop China from stealing US technology?
Jerry doesn’t need a plan, he’s not the president of the United States.
Roger,
If you are going to criticize a plan, you better have a better one. That’s how the world works.
So Cory and everyone else needs a better plan than Trump.
Any plan Cory, myself or you would post here is irrelevant, the issue is that Trump said emphatically that the U.S. and China had a 90 day moratorium on tariffs when they clear don’t.
Trump lied again and the U.S. markets have been recognizing that lie on their continued downward slide. Investors are nervous.
China buys company’s, The US buys companies, when that happens, all of the information goes to the new buyer, it is called capitalism. Something that Russian know little about other than just beating you over the melon and taking it.
Roger,
If Xi doesn’t follow through, additional tarris are put on immediately.
Jerry,
You have no clue how China is stealing our technology.
When you learn that come back and I will have a discussion about it with you.
I am still waiting for the Democrat plan to stop China from stealing our technology and screwing us in trade.
I haven’t seen a better plan yet from the Democrats.
I have to assume that Democrats don’t care that China is stealing technology and wealth from us.
Jason, and what if Trump doesn’t follow through on the U.S. end, do you really think XI will do nothing?
Again, the general belief by investors is that Trump never had an agreement on tarris to begin with, it is just like North Korea, Kim Jung Un is expanding his nuclear program and Trump won’t do a damn thing about it.
This discussion isn’t about China stealing U.S technology, it is about more of Trump being exposed for the liar that he is, why do you refuse to acknowledge that, Jason?
Roger,
This is about the theft of US technology. What investors are you talking about?
Cory is trying to use China to gain agriculture votes in this situation. It’s very sleazy.
As I have said before, the US will win no matter what. It just took a President to do it.
China thought they could win by targeting the US farmer. They thought wrong.
That saddest part about this is Cory and the Democrats trying to use farmers for their political gain.
If you are wanting to talk about lies by presidents Roger, we can do that.
Let’s start with George Washington and work our way forward. Are you for that?
No it’s not, Jason. It’s about the fact that Donald Trump claimed a trade deal exists that actually appears not to exist. It’s about the fact that, as Darrell notes, we can’t trust anything the White House says.
Your constant diversions tacitly admit the point. Thank you.
Cory,
The pressure is on Xi now.
If he renegs on his promise, than he takes the hit, not Trump.
I forgot to ask you, were you in the room to hear exactly what Xi said?
I forgot to ask you, were you in the room to hear exactly what Xi said?
And you were? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight!
Chinese officials have begun preparing to restart imports of U.S. soybeans and liquefied natural gas, the first sign confirming the claims of President Donald Trump and the White House that China had agreed to start buying some U.S. products “immediately.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/china-is-said-to-be-preparing-to-buy-u-s-lng-and-soybeans-again
The proof of an end to the trade war will be soybean prices returning to the price trading range they traded at in the spring of 2018 prior to the implementation of the tariffs. The proof of a victory in the trade war will be soybean prices sustaining themselves significantly above the price trading range of the spring of 2018.
China hasn’t confirmed any of what Jason and his puppet Drumpf spew. Sec of AG Perdue says China will almost certaily have to buy some US soybeans because they have drained Brazil of old crop and new crop isn’t ready.
Perdue says it will be around the first of the year, not immediately, and he wants to see ships being loaded as final proof.
Just because the war ends does not mean farmers will have won anything. We might return to status quo and Jason will declare a great victory.
Looks like those soybeans are not gonna trade anytime soon Mr. Nemec. BTW, Brazil is reporting a record crop in their soybean harvest so trump may have urinated away a great opportunity for US producers to keep making a buck.
“Beijing on Thursday demanded the US and Canada clarify why Ottawa has detained Chinese telecom equipment giant Huawei’s chief financial officer Sabrina Meng Wanzhou at the request of the US government.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said that both the US and Canadian authorities had yet to clarify their reason for arresting Meng, who is also one of Huawei’s deputy chairpersons and a daughter of its founder and chief executive Ren Zhengfei.
Geng said Beijing had lodged protests with Washington and Ottawa and offered consular assistance to Meng soon after she was detained.
Her arrest in Vancouver raises more doubts about a 90-day truce on trade struck between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on December 1, the day she was detained.”
Well, there ya go. Seems kinda interesting with the timing of the arrest, but who am I to judge. I wonder, does the United States have spies in China that steal proprietary technology? Probably not as we don’t do such things.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/us-trade-deficit-surges-10-year-high-trumps-trade-war-backfires/
But,but he is winning and HRC had emails.
Nick,
Soybeans will not return to that range due to supply and demand.
The US had a record harvest this year.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf
I hope Jason and the other Russians who comment here have chiropractors on retainer. The way the twist themselves into knots thas gotta hurt.
Blaming Democrats for Ole Baldy’s trade war and trashing the farm economy, when he proudly claims ownership. 😄😄😄😄😄
Geez, Jason, how are farmers supposed to come out ahead with lower prices? You and Drumpf guaranteed farmers would come out of this trade war in better shape. With lower prices and less market share? Seriously, are you and Drumpf on buddy drugs?
“Trade War Casualties
“The Trump Administration’s trade fight with China has been particularly hard in Nebraska, with the Nebraska Farm Bureau estimating that retaliatory tariffs let to a loss between $695 million and $1.026 billion so far in 2018, which is about 11 to 16 percent of the entire value of Nebraskan agricultural goods. Factor in labor income losses and the total economic hit to the state is $859 million to $1.2 billion. Break that down per capita, and each Nebraskan would need to pay $632 to cover the lost dollars.”
Joseph Morton, Omaha World-Herald
https://goo.gl/5Db1o9
Ole Baldy’s economy, via Axios.
“It’s the Worst Time to Make Money in Markets Since 1972,” Bloomberg’s Elena Popina writes:
“Ned Davis Research puts markets into eight big asset classes — everything from bonds to U.S. and international stocks to commodities. And not a single one of them is on track to post a return this year of more than 5 percent, a phenomenon last observed in 1972.”
Why it matters: “Market statisticians are falling over each other in 2018 to describe the pain being felt across asset classes.”
“Goldman Sees Another Weak Year After a Lousy 2018,” per Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey:
“Slowing economic growth, shrinking central bank balance sheets and continued bouts of volatility will help make 2019 another poor year for risk-adjusted investment returns, with few obvious havens, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”
Breaking: “Stock markets around the world fell sharply [today], with the arrest of a high-profile Chinese executive in Canada rattling hopes for thawing U.S.-China trade relations, while energy prices resumed their steep drops.” (WSJ)
http://theconstantcommoner.blogspot.com/2018/09/got-along-without-you-before-i-met-you.html
John Tsitrian did this back in Sept and to my mortal shame I just saw it today. Great read.
Soybeans will not return to prices of a couple of years ago because–China. China may be permanently off our list as a soybean trading partner because, with help from the U.S.A. administration, they have found other, more cooperative trading partners to fill their demands. Why should they look toward playing trade games with bullies who think winning at trade games is “easy”?