It’s too bad Donald Trump and Kristi Noem burned up our fiscal stimulus capacity with unnecessary tax cuts that did nothing to change the long-standing positive trajectory of the Obama economy:
Jobs, unemployment, wages—all on the right track since President Obama and the Democratic Congress hauled us out of the recession, all plowing right through the fiscal fiddling Trump and Noem have done.
Now what will Trump do when his economic Viagra wears off and his reckless trade policies kick us back toward recession?
The probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years, while still low, also nudged up to a median 35 percent from 30 percent in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken Nov 13-19. It held at 15 percent for the next 12 months.
…”The economy is facing a growing number of headwinds, including the lagged effects of previous interest rate rises and dollar strength, the uncertainty of trade protectionism at a time when external demand is slowing, and a sense that the support from the fiscal stimulus will gradually fade,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
…The trade war U.S. President Donald Trump launched with No. 2 world economy China has already started to hit export-sensitive economies like Germany and Japan. And an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit ended on Sunday with leaders failing to agree on a final statement for first time in the forum’s history.
That has lowered expectations Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a breakthrough when they meet at a G20 summit later this month [Shrutee Sarkar, “U.S. Recession Chances Edge up, Risk Fed Delivers Fewer Hikes: Reuters Poll,” Reuters via KELO Radio, 2018.11.19].
Expect the White House “rules” for reporters to include not posting charts or forecasts showing the harm Trump is doing to our long-term economic health.
Alaska fishermen just got a $30 million dollar shot in the arm from the fed for Pollack. Good for the Pollack fishermen but who knows about the rest. In the meantime there is this for the Dow Jones today 24,465.64 −551.80 (2.21%). The tariff’s are sure winning and China is sure losing…or is it the other way around?
Today it was announced that South Dakota soybean farmers have received $19.4 million in offsets to make up for Trump’s foolish tariff war.
Each dairy farmer and soybean farmer have gotten just enough to buy a cup of coffee and a doughnut at the local cafe so they can sit around and complain about the brownies coming across the border in hordes. Even the military, who have to sit around the border for Thanksgiving, are getting a little tired of the abuse of power. That 19 million just makes trump supporters love him more as we have seen in the last election. South Dakota does not want real change, we just want pocket change, more handouts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO17hN-YvBc
But here in South Dakota, Jackley is heading to Pierre to help the Ravensborg figure out how to try a case or drink one. NOem is gonna make Hot Springs great again with some kind of big money input…paging Joop, and China…with a little dose of Rounds.