Todd Epp is a longtime Democratic supporter and a good journalist. (As we know, Democrats have a tendency toward honesty.) Journalist Epp thus has no qualms about letting the air out of the Sutton balloon by pointing out that last week’s much ballyhooed Cook Political Report upgrade of South Dakota’s gubernatorial race from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-Up” is the only national prognostication putting South Dakota’s Governor’s chair in reach of Democrats:
All the other political newsletters that have been tracking the state’s gubernatorial race has it ranked as “likely Republican” to “safe Republican.”
KELO.com News looked at a number of established political newsletters and found this breakdown. (Date prediction was last updated.)
- CenterForPolitics.org–Likely Republican (October 4, 2018).
- InsideElections.com–Likely Republican (September 28, 2018).
- Governing.com–Safe Republican (March 30, 2018).
- RasmussenReports.com–Safe Republican (April 20, 2017).
- RealClearPolitics.com–Safe Republican (no date).
InsideElections.com and CenterForPolitics.com would have had access to the latest Sutton poll for their prognostication [Todd Epp, “So Far, Cook Political Report an Outlier on Noem/Sutton/Evans Race,” KELO Radio, 2018.10.08].
Democratic candidate Billie Sutton could still spin those ratings in his favor: the later the rater, the greater his chances. But the plain fact is that Cook stands alone in Saying Sutton and Kristi Noem are neck and neck.
No word yet on the impact Libertarian Bob Newland’s vote for Democratic candidate Billie Sutton while have on Epp’s or the national pundits’ ratings of South Dakota’s race for Governor.
Sometimes we do need to face some hard facts about our neighbors. From the voter registrations, it is clear that a plurality of South Dakotans prefer the folks who gave us EB-5 and Gear Up. I do not say that as a bit of snark. In conversations and reading the comments coming from GOPers, they express admiration for any efforts to make money even if they cross the line into grift and fraud. That’s what they like about Trump, even if he lies about how his money was made, has repeated bankruptcies, and refuses to pay bills. And they also deplore legislation or rules that enforce civil rights and fair business practices to everyone. They are against regulation because it interferes with what they think is their right to discriminate, oppress, and defraud. In a letter to the editor, a “proud deplorable” claimed Billy Sutton does not have South Dakota values [https://www.aberdeennews.com/news/opinion/letters/letter-sutton-lacks-south-dakota-values/article_db1d50e1-45ba-5235-b8b5-cda1b50f8bcb.html] because he voted for legislation that would protect those that the deplorable wish to demean and oppress. South Dakota “nice” is often mean and malicious, and it has power in stat government, because the majority rules.
But Rasmussen and RealClear tend to lean right, so with that said, two of the remaining three only give Noem a “Likely” rating.
This race is close, but Dems are relying too much on message and not enough on the math to win it in my estimation. Does the Sutton campaign, or for that matter the Bjorkman campaign too, know what their magical numbers are? Do they know what they need out of each of the given counties to win it and have they been registering and bagging votes in potentially Democratic areas to win their respected races?
It appears that Democrats are using “Rock Stardom” as their only strategy I am afraid to win in 2018, which is at best a “Hail Mary” approach with nice wrappings….
#ItsTheMathStupid!
In Wingnutosphere equal rights means for whites only. Special rights are allowing equal rights for everyone.
mike you need a new horse to beat. Your racist one is dead.
OldSymbioneseLiberationSneakers, The shoe foots you like a glove. Hope you get blisters for lying.
You never did say if you are Lakota or why you shortened Old Sarge.
Recall that most pundits and polls predicted Trump would lose, which apparently led to increased efforts to get out the vote for Trump to prove the pollsters wrong.
Perhaps these SD polls could have the same “get out the vote for Sutton” effect?
I hope your right, BCB.
OS, only racists get tired of racism being identified and called out.
bcb, throw out the 3 million illegal Russian votes and Drumpf lost handily. How do I know there was 3 million? I just do. Rethugs always cheat. It is the only way they can win.
I’m sure the 3 million snuck across the Canadian border into Moscow, Idaho and voted from there. Or maybe Saint Petersburg, Florida. Or maybe both places.
Debbo, calling people nasty names brought you Trump. It is your fault in a way.
OldSanctimoniousSwearword, are you Lakota?
Drumpf was calling people names and lying about HRC long before Putin got him into the Kremlin Annex. And you lying and making up stuff about it doesn’t change the fact the election was rigged and stolen by yer side.
BCB, I wonder if Democrats would be less motivated by “proving the pollsters wrong” than Trumpists would. After all, good polls are a scientific exercise. We like science. Trumpists revel in being able to neener-neener the eggheads.
If you phrase the question to skew the outcome is it scientific?
The National ruckus caused by the Democrats will hurt candidates at all levels for the party. Protests violence and hate are not the winning formula.
Said Noem will likely win for these reasons
Mr. OldSarg is right. It was out-of-state name calling that put Mr. Trump in office. That, and the intense hatred of Hillary most people had, some of which was due to the overuse of pants-suits in her wardrobe.
No old s it’s not scientific
Phrase to skew the outcomes is statistics
Courtesy Dr S at NSU
😀
I don’t get it, Grudz. How does Donald Trump get to call names right and left and suffer no consequences, but some liberal protestors (none of whom are on a South Dakota ballot) make a ruckus and we Dems all get hung out to dry?
OS, naming a racist when that racist shows himself to be such, is not name calling. It is identification. 👌
Mr. H, I suppose your question is sort of the same thing I ask, when all of us Conservatives with Common Sense get hung out to dry, albeit mostly by your out-of-state name-callers.
But Mr. Trump does call names, like your blog friends, and he is wrong for that. But it was Mr. OldSarg’s point that it was the calling of people names like “deplorables” and the ilk by the Hillarites that really pissed off the final swing votes. The Alt-Left went nutzo and got Trump elected. That’s a fact. It was the Alt-Left libbie name calling that put the insanest president since…well since Andrew Jackson, prolly, into office. So when the out-of-staters keep up the rudeness it just keeps the cycle going.
grudznick always preaches kindness and politeness. And grudznick is not a supporter of Mr. Trump.
Vote Seiler.
Back to the question/issue: Can a Democrat win in South Dakota? Not sure; Billie Sutton is quite an attractive candidate. He knows the ropes and would make a good alternative governor. Kristi is pretty popular; she sure took it to our Attorney General. She too may make a good governor; we will see. I made arrangements to vote in my new SD county. No longer have a yard for a sign. Again, we will see. Not too confident in the SDDP leadership though, and this has been a ‘trend’ throughout the US…Democrats not ‘selected’ by party officials getting on the ballots.
There’s no need to say “we will see” on Noem’s gubernatorial skills: her lackluster performance in Congress and in business (again, I challenge readers to identify one lasting achievement by Noem in either field) demonstrate she will be a poor governor. Elect her, and the state will be run by her unelected behind-the-scenes lobbyist puppetmasters.
Gordon, can you clarify your last statement about “Democrats not ‘selected’ by party officials getting on ballots”?
And here we go again – commenters who repeatedly judge people based on race and color sitting on their undeserved pedestals “calling out” people for judgment based on race and color.
let me get a real quote out of you folks (anybody!?) – do you support treating people of all races and genders equally or do you support inequality?
I can say in pierre at his meet and greet, he stated ne received a check from last name nome (intentional mp) from the castlwood area. I thought this was interesting. Who is it and how related possibly.
He stated he campaigned in camp crook area. Yes that is in our state all the way to the nw border I think. There is nobody trying harder than this guy, has anyone ever hit small border towns on the SD borders for a campaign? When you see passion such as this, can anyone in their right mi d vote for a no show? Yet they will vote party,
Our state as CH stated will be ran from behind the scenes instead of by the people.
If you phrase the question to skew the outcome is it scientific?
When Fake Noize and other right propagandists do it, it is called manipulating the polls for Drumpf’s gain.
For Ryan and the Trolly Twins- https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/dark-underside-conservatism-ex-republican-reveals-finally-realized-racism-extremism-behind-gops-success/
When I accuse racists of being racist, there is usually a large fire below the smoke.
Tendency towards honesty? LMAO
If you poor albino snowflakes would get off your pity pots and quit bawling that yer the real victims, you might realize us out of state posters could be the best thing that ever happened to right wing crybaby voter rolls.
Like drumpf and kavernmouth you prefer to sit and whine how bad the party of righteous sexual predators get their crimes called out. And then jump back into the war on women with both feet. Nice.
“you might realize us out of state posters” we do realize you are from out of state and really have no say in what we do in South Dakota. Honestly, after thinking it through, I think we have kicked all the stupid people out of the pretty much. We kicked the dumbest south east.
mikey, how ya getting along with your new gal? Isn’t love grand? Marinette is quite a catch for you and I mean that in all CAPS! Prayers answered bud! I bet ya feel like a new man and all. Have you taken her to dinner yet or maybe down to the park? Take it slow. You don’t want to blow this one. It may be your last chance. How did she contact you, email, text or phone?
I liked what Stace Nelson said about the sign wars in his district. Sutton and Bjorkman are winning! Those signs say a lot and a feller like Stace Nelson knows that when you have those up and flourishing for your neighbors to see, that is a pretty good sale. Ask Wall Drug, they like signage too.
The race will be close, but Sutton has not even brought out healthcare to beat hell out of NOem’s NO votes. Hint Hint: Come on Billie, time is wasting. Let’s do this!