But if Billie Sutton is a Christian and thus is a man of discernment and truth, then he surely exercised his discernment to commission an honest internal poll, and he’s not lying when he says his poll shows him winning the South Dakota Governor’s race:
Based on cell and landline calls to 500 likely South Dakota voters from September 20 through September 24, ALG Research finds 45% of us voting for Democrat Sutton, 42% voting for Republican Kristi Noem, 3% voting for Libertarian Kurt Evans (Kurt! Keep it up!), and 10% still thinking about it.
ALG Research is the same outfit that claimed back in August that Sutton was behind Noem by four points but could beat her by six if voters heard his bio alongside hers. If these D.C. pollsters are to be trusted, Sutton has room to grow as he gets his story out to people who aren’t paying attention yet.
When Democrats ask me if Sutton has a shot, I tell them to compare the Sutton/Noem contest to the last closest Democratic loss, the Herseth/Mickelson battle of 1986, in which a moderate rural Democrat lost by just four points to a generally well-liked Republican. I tell them the big difference this year is the Republican is not well-liked. ALG’s data support that contention: they find 38% of voters view Noem unfavorably while only 13% view Sutton unfavorably. “Even among Republicans,” repots ALG, “more dislike Noem (19%) than Sutton (18%).”
We are wise to view internal polls as horsehockey. However, two items suggest there cold be some substance to this puck.
First, Sutton is making the bold claim that he’s actually ahead. In the past, even the dreamiest horsehockey from Democratic camps hasn’t had the audacity to claim an actual lead. Sutton isn’t known for Trumpian or even Jardingian exaggeration.
Second, after conspicuously skipping debates at Dakotafest and the State Fair, Kristi Noem has agreed to a third last-week debate against Sutton on KSFY. If you’re going to dismiss my critique of her earlier debate chickenry by accepting the pragmatic conventional wisdom that frontrunners avoid debates to minimize losses, then you now must accept that Noem’s agreement to another debate signals that smells the smoke from her own internal polling results and sees she may indeed be running behind.
Cory, Sutton has a 30% deficit between the parties. He’s a great guy but there are not that many cross-over voters.
It has become a Romeo and Juliet seen “”Eyes, look your last! Arms, take your last embrace! and lips, O you .The doors of breath, seal with a righteous kiss. A dateless bargain to engrossing death.”
Aren’t independents crossover voters, OS?
The more interesting aspect of this is the momentum. That’s a huge swing from October 2017, and still trending more positive for Sutton since July 2018, with still some weeks to go before busy people start paying attention. If I were Noem, I’d start hoping for an October surprise–momentum matters, and without something to shift it, that blue line could keep easing up far enough to put a Democrat in the governor’s office.
Though, one factor to consider is the quality of the polling firm–ALG Research gets a C rating from fivethirtyeight.com: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
But maybe this is surprising enough to get some other polling firms looking at this race.
Jenny, yes independents are cross-over voters and in South Dakota there are almost as many independents (122K) as there are democrats (156K) but the majority of people who identify as independents are your Tea Party folks and yes, they dislike republicans (252K) but they dislike democrats even more.
Statistically it would take Noem doing something criminal in order to lose.
Sutton’s home county of Gregory voted 76.5% for Trump and 70.1% for Romney in the most recent Presidential elections. Sutton won with 59.5% of the vote in 2012 and was unopposed in 2014 and 2016. He is capable of getting Republican votes. Source: Wikipedia.org
Oh, oh, OS inavertently reveals a real potential problem for Noem as he writes “Statistically it would take Noem doing something criminal in order to lose.”
Multiple speeding tickets that have endangered other families on the road as well as serious failure to appear charges in court and arrest warrants seem to satisfy OS’s need for “something criminal.”
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/11/12/kristi.noem.profile/index.html
Here is a more complete story describing Noem’s serial criminal behavior:
http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/news/government-and-politics/1528437-noems-driving-record-takes-wheel-campaign
The failure to stop at intersections is spookily reminicient of Bill janklow’s last offense after years of similar speeding charges.
Nobody thought Stefon Diggs would make that catch last year either.
I don’t doubt that the race is closer than most people think. Personally, I know more than one Sioux Falls GOP voter who intends to vote for Billie but rarely speaks of it out loud. Kinda like a lot of Trump voters in 2016, especially in the primaries.
As to the poll, as always, it would be nice to see the internals and crosstabs. Also, it’s crucial to know how the 500 likely voters were selected and how closely they reflect the state’s demographics and historical voting patterns. Also, did the pollsters weight the responses to adjust the 500 to meet a specific demographic, and, if so, what weighting did they use?
There’s a lot of art built into polling, regardless of what poll or polling firm you’re discussing.
Great News
Just remember Noem released internal poll numbers against Jackley during the Primary Election more then once this far out from election day because they looked good for her vs. Jackley. This time… crickets. If she’s double digits ahead like some GOP insiders claim then release the polling… Hmm…
I personally know quite a few Republicans voting for Sutton and most have never voted for a Democrat for SD Governor. I definitely feel the momentum. Heck his ads are very confident and certainly portray him as the front runner. The more Noem uses cheesy attack ads the extremely likeable and moderate cowboy on the white horse will continue to have the momentum. She will run out of negative material way before election day. The dirty ads worked on Jackley. I think they have a lot bigger chance of backfiring against Sutton. She’s going to have to start running on substance. That’s not her strong suit.
Michael, I welcome those silent majority-makers. People don’t have to say much to make a difference. They just have to get out and vote.
It was over before it started.
A positive mental attitude will win the day! Rounds used it to best the two heavyweights in his primary. There was no way Barnett should have been beaten and yet Smiling Mike showed what happens when you stay on the white horse! Now Billie needs to bring that white horse to a comfortable loop, by using healthcare and NOem’s complete lack of empathy for her fellow South Dakotan’s.
Heidi, that 538 data is good. 6 of 11 ALG polls analyszed turned out to pick the winner. As it stands, ALG isn’t much better than my lucky quarter.
Interesting to see that ALG’s Democratic bias in polls results isn’t as bad as Brigham Young University’s. And it’s just a tick less than the GOP bias shown by Public Opinion Strategies, which has done work for Dusty Johnson this year and Noem in the past… yet 538 gives POS a higher grade than it gives ALG.
Aaron cites useful data. BH76 cites the rationale that will lead to more negative ads against Sutton. The Hillary ad was gentle compared to the fire Noem will rain down.
I would totally agree that the best way to judge this race is to compare it to Herseth/Mickelson ’86. But like Noem, Mickelson was not historically as popular as other Republican governors over the years, yet, he won his two gubernatorial races. Mickelson took 52% in ’86 and 58% in ’90, if my memory serves me right, which means he never broke 60% with a 55% average; while most Republican governors tend to have an average in the mid 60s percentile (Janklow’s average for his first two terms was 64%, Rounds’ was 61.5%; and Daugaard’s was 67%; with Janklow’s second reign averaging 58%).
The interesting thing about the ’86 race is that the Democratic nominee won most of the rural counties, while the Republican nominee carried most if not all of the larger more urban counties. I believe the same thing could happen again in ’18. So it comes down to how well Sutton makes enroads with the surburban vote, especially in Minnehaha/Lincoln (Sioux Falls) area, in order for him to win.
The interesting thing about Noem is that as a successful statewide Republican candidate in the past, she has never had the “Big Win.” Her best showing is 68% in ’14.
Although, that is a healthy win, she did that in ’14 against a Democrat who never went on TV; and that Democrat did the best of any of the statewide Democratic candidates that year.
And when I talk about the the “Big Win,” I am talking about victories like Pressler had of 81 and 71 percent, Janklow’s 71%, Thune’s three 74% wins and his year without an opponent, and Daugaard’s 74% win.
So Noem is vulnerable, and she also had the weakest win of any freshman Congressperson in South Dakota, in modern times, with only a 57% victory (Pressler had 81% in ’76, Daschle 63% in ’80, Johnson 68% in ’88, Thune’s 76% in ’98, and I believe Herseth’s had a 67% win in ’06). So the vulnerablity is obviously there….
When I mention….”weakest win of any freshman Congressperson,” I am talking about their first re-election bid.
There are three Republicans in my neighborhood with signs already in their yard. Two are for Sutton. I know that may not be typical but…. “it’s a sign” that things might not be going well for Noem.
Interesting, JKC. Mickelson didn’t bring in the big vote totals, but was that simply because he faced stronger Democratic challengers and a stronger Democratic party with a bigger Democratic electorate?
And in 1986, did Mickelson have any strong unfavorables like Noem does now (and seems to have had throughout her statewide political career)?
Mickelson won the urban vote, Herseth won the rural vote: that was an important demographic point of the 1986 vote. But Mickelson was an urban dude. Noem has never portrayed herself as an urbanite. What would drive her urban appeal over Sutton’s this year?
Jimmy, your anecdotal observation could be as predictive as ALG’s internal polling.
Cory, let me begin with your last question, because I have pondered the same. If this race stays close, than this race will be decided by Sioux Fallsians who live in the southern part of the city, or the Lincoln County part of the city. This is essentially “TenHaken/Lavellee Land,” and I believe it is incumbent upon both Sutton and Noem to become more urbanite in their image if they plan to win this. The people of southern Sioux Falls have higher than average incomes, live in above average priced taupe homes. They are who I often like to dub the “Taupe Housing Society of Conformity” crowd, and if either Sutton or Noem want to win them over, I would recommend to both camps to get rid of the baseball hats, the plaid shirts, and yes the cowboy hats, because Sioux Fallsians in that part of town really do not care if you can ride a horse or not, or shoot a gun while riding one either… It would probably be best for Noem to continue to hit hard on Sutton as a liberal, hence my recent criticisms of Noems ad may be wrong. Sutton I believe needs to shed the hat when in Sioux Falls or interviewed on TV. I also believe Noem needs to take the money that Trump can raise for her, but she needs to let her potential voters link her to Trump and not do it herself given Trump’s problems with the women’s vote in suburban America.
In terms of Mickelsons popularity in the 1980s, that is true that the Democratic Party was stronger then, but if that is the case, then you have made a case also for a Noem victory in 2018. I always thought that Mickelson’s weaker than average popularity numbers had to do with the fact that he was always perceived as a classic country club Republican to many, which allowed Democratic opponents to benefit from.
I aIso don’t recall any “strong unfavorables” for Mickelson, but I think his performances in ’86 and ’90 speak for themselves.
This Noem/Sutton race also reminds we of Janklow/Herseth in 2002. Although, that was a congressional race. Janklow had some blowback due to the controversies at the boot camp in Custer and the tragedy in Plankington, which were all tied with a groundswell of support for Herseth as the Democrats first “Rock Star” candidate much as Sutton is now perceived today…. Also, there is a lot of hearsay polling or enthusiasm going on in the Democratic camp right now, for both Sutton and Bjorkman, which reminds me of the hopes that Dems had for Herseth in ’02, too.
However, Janklow survived that race, 54/46, to a large part because of the politics of 9/11 which matched Janklow’s persona well. So once again, we have identified a similar race, but in both cases, ’86 and ’02, Noem comes up lacking in that in the one case she does not have a “9/11′ conservative momentum, nor a more urbanite image than Sutton, or like Mickelson, so these realities would all favor Sutton as long as the race stays close and Noem is unable to effectively portray Sutton as a liberal cowboy.
#IAmMoreUrbanThanYou
#HeIsJustACowboyLiberal
I might also add, that the better that Sutton does the harder it will be in my estimation for Bjorkman to win. Earlier on, I thought Bjorkman would run stronger than Sutton because of the greater potentiality for South Dakotans to elect Democrats to congress than to the Governor’s mansion and because of the current state of the farm economy, but Sutton’s “Rock Star” persona will cause many swing Republican voters to vote for him, which in turn will cause that same group to redeem themselves by voting for Dustyl which ironically is how I think Mickelson won it in ’86 in the final analysis, because in that year, Johnson got 60% against Dale Bell and Tom Daschle beat Jim Abdnor (52/48) which caused those swing voters to redeem themselves with a Republican vote for Mickelson that year…
ALG Research is rated among the Top Five polling organizations in USA. (PS …The polls weren’t wrong on Clinton v Trump because Trump cheated. Trump knew Putin and WikiLeaks had hacked the election in several areas and didn’t tell the Justice Department. That’s obstruction and collusion, one of which is a felony.)
https://callhub.io/political-polling-companies-2/?amp_markup=1
Clinton won the popular vote. So most, or all, polls were right about the Clinton/Trump race.
PPS … my link shows that ALG was given an A rating by fivethirtyeight. This link was written ten days ago.
Some pretty good analysis there, Mr. Kennedy Claussen. Really good, actually.
I said a few weeks back that Noem might regret not agreeing to more debates once Sutton’s ads saturate the airwaves. Debates may be over-rated but sometimes it’s all you’ve got. Noem would have been wise to take some of the shine of Billie earlier in the campaign. He is becoming that rock star candidate that anyone objectively viewing his intro ad could have predicted.
The reason that Republicans have difficulty voting for Democrats is that it is hard for them to place a vote in favor of abortion. In Billie Sutton’s case, they could really consider voting Democratic.
In Sutton’s campaign materials that I have read (one brochure and his website), he seems hesitant to promote his pro-life and pro-gun positions. Possibly that is because he does not want to alienate his Democratic base. However, that’s a real shame, because I suspect that the Republican crossover could more than make up for it.
I am cautiously optimistic about Sutton and am considering voting for him.
Timoteo we are all pro-gun in the sense that we authorize police to police while armed. We all recognize the inherent dangers. We all favor reasonable regulation of a dangerous weapon. Many public facilities regulate carrying guns inside. Most of us grew up in this rural state exposed to hunting. Vote with us. Elect Billie. You will not see a change in 2nd amendment rights as a result of so voting.
Abortion is not a republican/democratic issue, really, it is used to sow division, but none of us enjoys seeing a woman having to make that difficult choice. Billie is trying to walk a razor’s edge on these issues as a Democrat trying to appeal to sensible government leadership in a state long held captive from two party functioning. Obviously his Lt. Gov. partner is a Republican. He will reach across the aisle.
Thank you for considering this vote for Billie.
“a cowboy liberal”—JKC, can anyone make a label like that stick to anyone? Will South Dakota voters who can be swayed by such labels really believe that a “cowboy” is “liberal” or that a “liberal” is a real “cowboy”?
JKC, if we assume that Billie’s and Kristi’s rurality are equally indelible (I don’t know that they are, but let’s play with that idea), what difference do the LG picks—Sutton’s clear contrasting urbanite versus Kristi’s double-down-on-rurality Marlboro man—make to the crucial MinneLinc electorate?
Porter, I don’t know where your source got its info, but right now, 538 shows ALG with a C. I can only conclude that your source, Jasmine Somaiah, misread 538.
Timoteo, don’t let me get in your way. Do permit me to again encourage Republicans to recognize that even if we could snap our fingers and make abortion disappear from South Dakota forever, the state would still have to raise teacher pay, pave roads, fix bridges, protect parks, pay cops, lower vo-tech tuition, and clean out cronyism and corruption in Pierre, and those few hundred more abortions that would happen in Minnesota, Colorado, and back alleys instead of the safe conditions of Planned Parenthood in Sioux Falls would not resolve or reduce any of those problems.
Let’s govern comprehensively. Let’s vote for candidates who can govern comprehensively.
Cory, I don’t know any more about her cred. I DO know that in politics perception is reality. My several hundred SD Facebook friends are all repeating that Billie has a slim lead. BTW His popularity is good and rising.
Your several hundred Facebook friends are repeating the same single internal poll released by the candidate… but not yet rebutted by the candidate alleged to be in second place.
They’re not politophiles. Perception is reality. They don’t pay much attention to minutia. Billie’s just mentioned favorably in passing conversations. Most voters don’t engage into two weeks before.
PS … 65% of white males are Republicans. Maybe one of my Facebook friends is Republican so it’s a specialized group of opinions.
One word on who will win the Sutton/Noem race – Minnehaha county – and I hope there is a big Sutton campaign team there.
Cory, oh, no doubt Sutton’s pick is better from a strategic point, but what about from a philosophical point? If you are anti-choice, don’t fight to save IM22, and play the “Christian card,” then what do we really have, than the hope that the former Republican might be the more liberal and let alone the more urban one?…..
I don’t mean to be a “Debbie Downer,” but seriously when our major standard bearers claim to be anti-choice, pro-NRA, and “Christians” as if others of other faiths or no faith do not matter, then do we really have any shame?…. We obviously have a new philosophy in South Dakota Democratic politics, that has been curved by Trump….. So wake me up when this is all over with….. It is a nightmare, right?
#DontWorryShesMoreLiberal
#WaitAMinute
#IMeanMoreUrban
Cory, as far as your “a cowboy liberal” issue: I would say that one could make it stick, especially to those who are not as familiar with a given candidate. It’s like when Bob Dole called Jimmy Carter a “Southern fried McGovern” and Carter and McGovern were far more known in time and place, than Sutton is in Minnehaha right now…. So could a McGovern in time and place really be a southerner or can a southerner really be a McGovern?….. McGovern’s two running mates were from border states (MD., and MO.,), that’s rather telling wouldn’t you say, yet, the label on Carter stuck even if Doles ’80 presidential ambitions failed.
But even if ALG is a “C,” it still most likley means that Noem is under the 50 percentile mark; and it is fair to say, that Noem technically is the “incumbent” in this race from a statewide name ID sense, so that given, if she is the incumbent and under 50 percent, then she is in trouble.
Disappointing to see Mr. Intelligence say 538 is good data numbers. I’m sure, in reality, you do not actually believe that. Any poll with more than 3% margin of error is questionable. Poll doesn’t include what registered likely voters they talked to either. N R-D-Independent breakdown. ALG doesn’t list the process either, how random is it? NOT a good poll but one that gave them the outcome they wanted for a PR usage tool. That’s it.
Steve, what are your thoughts on Rasmussen? They always seem to be about six points off from the norm.
An other thing interesting about Rasmussen is that they poll on Trump’s popularity continously unlike before and unlike any other pollester, which skews the overall assessment of Trumps popularity to his benefit. A reality that the press doesn’t mention for some reason, but should.
JKC, Steve, and all:
Rasmussen gets a lot of flak for their Presidential poll. In response, they have several web pages devoted to their polling process and a page specifically addressing their belief in the validity of their process: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology
Some of Rasmussen is fine much like any polling group but I typically focus on the data of the poll before taking into account it’s product end. In this day and age polling has become a tool of whoever is pushing it.
IMO, Rasmussen is “fine” for Trump. ;-) But Steve, I do appreciate your input, thank you….
Well make sure you look at all the polling done and see the political tool that it is usually for. Love how Cory isn’t commenting on any of this. Hard to refute facts. Sutton has no prayer.
And to be clear because someone like Mike from Iowa will comment I am talking about the data on how the poll was conducted. Because the truth is ALG and Sutton just mislead South Dakotans. Big time.
ha, ha! Arguing about polls?
The vote will come and “as usual” the 30% republican advantage will put Noem in the office of governor. People do not dislike Noem any more than they like Sutton (who is trying to make people see him as a republican, weird. . .) Cowboy hat, or no hat and no matter the poll, the people will line up and vote how they always vote and that is a safe vote and Noem will win. Sorry, it is over. The race was won before it began.
Wrong, Steve. 538’s evaluation of the quality of these polling firms is not itself another poll subject to the same indict (evidence, Steve?). The 538 evaluation is based on how often the various polling companies’s results match election outcomes, as well as their skew toward one party or the other.
538 gives Rasmussen a C+.
538 was Sutton’s/ALG’s poll….
Lots of you are very sure you know how the election will go. Anybody have the nerve to do more than just spout of certainty? How bout this challenge –
Anybody who is sure they know who will win – just say so, and then agree that if you are wrong you won’t post here anymore.
But here’s the kicker – you actually have to mean it. If you break your word, you are admitting you are nothing but a mouthpiece with no spine. We will know who you are, you spineless mouthpieces.
I make no claim to certainty. I make no bet.
And challenging people to back up a bet by promising to give up their participation in public discourse seems unfair.
Wasn’t directed at you, Cory – your estimates / guesses / etc. are usually based on reality. I do think it’s fair though when people claim to be certain of something to ask them to back it up with something else, and this would be the only verifiable thing to ask of them.
Also I was just being a d!ck to try to tone down the bogus “certainty” people seem to have. It’s everywhere. People say, “this thing will happen, i guarantee it…” over and over then when the things don’t happen, they just keep on spouting off like they aren’t wrong every day. I would like for those people to know that some of us see them.