Governing, which has done a crappy job of keeping up with South Dakota politics, finally acknowledges that Billie Sutton’s chances against Kristi Noem are better than the casual national “South Dakota’s a red state” viewer might think. In this morning’s update, Louis Jacobson includes South Dakota among six states where he’s shifting his gubernatorial race predictions toward Democrats.
The shift isn’t anything like Jacobson’s move of Minnesota from “toss-up” to “lean Dem.” All Billie gets is a slide left from “safe ‘Pub” to “likely ‘Pub”:
And last, in South Dakota’s open-seat race, we’re shifting it from safe Republican to likely Republican. One poll by a Democratic firm had Democratic state Sen. Billie Sutton trailing Republican U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem by just four points. But the state hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1974, so don’t hold your breath [link added; Louis Jacobson, “With Primary Season Over, Democrats Poised to Gain 3 to 7 Governors’ Seats,” Governing, 2018.09.14].
Jacobson is right to cite history as a basis for his skepticism. But I’m willing to argue from historical precedent that Sutton has the best chance of any Democrat since that 1974 winner, Dick Kneip. The best comparison is the next closest Democratic contender for Governor, Lars Herseth, who pulled within four points of George Mickelson in 1986. Sutton is a lot like Herseth, a likable, experienced, now well-known legislator from a ag background. Noem, like Mickelson, has strong fundraising. But Mickelson didn’t have a bunch of voters, including a significant number of Republicans, muttering under their breath, “I just hate that guy.” People liked Mickelson. Lots of people don’t like Kristi Noem. And nobody—really, nobody—hates Billie Sutton’s guts. (Go ahead: prove me wrong, with examples.)
Plus, we have pictures of Kristi Noem and her running mate smiling next a total White House muck-up. The Iran/Contra-saddled and -addled Ronald Reagan was pulling down Republicans in 1986; Donald Trump isn’t helping Republicans win votes any more than he’s helping South Dakotans make more money farming or running tourist traps.
We South Dakota Democrats have too long a history of settling for shifts from awful news to merely bad news. But progress is progress, and Sutton is moving in the right direction. Now the question is whether he can move farther enough in that direction to send Noem back to the farm.
It’s nut-cuttin’ time, which should come as no surprise to a cowboy candidate or to Noem. Sutton has exceeded the time limit for the “git-ta-know-ya” phase of the campaign. In this phase, he’s done as well as any Democrat candidate for governor in South Dakota post-Kneip history. But it’s time to knock the shine off Kristi’s nose (seriously, have you seen the cakes of make-up she puts on????) and hold accountable for the crash in corn, soybean and commodity prices.
Noem is still on the payroll to work for the people of South Dakota in Congress. She has the President’s ear. The people hired her to work for them, not Trump’s failed experiment with tariffs. Crop prices have dropped 30 percent because of the tariffs. As Governor, either Noem or Sutton will inherit a massive hole in general fund revenues that will force a tax emergency.
Kristi Noem needs to stop this disaster NOW. Later is too late.
If the hat fits, wear it. (Kristi Noemi sold her’s at auction in ’13)
http://madvilletimes.com/2013/08/forget-the-farm-bill-send-noem-money-and-win-kristis-hat/
True that 96 Tears, This is NOem’s doing as much as it is trump’s. She has rah rah’ed it like a cheerleader knowing the game is rigged. She owns it, Sutton needs to pin that tail on Ms NOem’s jello. She’s a slick one, ask Marty, but slick as she is, she can’t take the stank from herself with trump.
NOem also knows that we all know now, Manafort plead guilty just a few hours ago and is cooperating with Mueller. The trump ship is taking on water bigly. Count on NOem to abandon along with the rest of the enablers and plead stupid.
Kristi’s watching the clock (just like Rounds did), hoping that the election arrives before fecal materials hit the fan. She’s banking on farmers being too stupid to realize the warm feeling trickling down their backs from Trump ain’t sunshine. This is Sutton’s golden opportunity to call her bluff on an attack that is based entirely in merit.
Either way, Kristi will resort to a face-ripping attack ad in the last 10 days to pull her lazy ass through yet another election. The question for Billy Sutton is whether he wants to win a razor thin election or lose by more than five percentage points. Either way, Noem will go dirty as she always does.
Manafort put the fecal materials in the fan by cooperating with Mueller. Not only is trump feeling the Russian blowtorch from Manafort, so now is Pence.
“”Manafort had arranged for Trump to meet with his first choice for the job on July 13: Indiana Governor Mike Pence. Afterwards, the plans was for Trump and Pence to then fly back to New York together and a formal announcement would be made, a campaign source said of Manafort’s thinking.
What had previously been reported as a “lucky break” by the New York Times was actually a swift political maneuver devised by the now fired campaign manager. Set on changing Trump’s mind, he concocted a story that Trump’s plane had mechanical problems, forcing the soon-to-be Republican nominee to stay the night in Indianapolis for breakfast with the Pence family on Wednesday morning.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-offered-chris-christie-vice-president-role-before-mike-pence/
The noose tightens. On top of it all, Mueller confiscated the $46 million that Manafort ripped off so this whole extravaganza to prove Russian collusion at the highest levels will cost US taxpayers nothing. The investigation will be paid for. How about that?
“On Friday, the president*’s former campaign manager, and the person most responsible for the vice president’s presence on the ticket, pleaded guilty to…wait for it…”conspiracy against the United States,” which isn’t really as serious as it sounds, but which is not something to which any president wants his former campaign manager to cop. Mike Pence has one foot in the barrel now, too.” Esquire 09/14/2018 Great reporting by Charles Pierce, check it out.
And then there is this- https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/unprecedented-short-mysterious-visit-russian-intelligence-officials-made-washington-dc/
One Russky official’s agency was banned so he had to get a waiver from the State Dep’t.
Manafort was a longtime Roger Stone protege so maybe Mueller gets info to take down Drumpf and Stone.
I just watched one of Sutton’s commercials. Honestly it was great. At the end it is him up on a horse, I think right before reaching Wasta with a whole bunch of other white people on horses behind him. I enjoyed the whole thing and then I noticed it never says he is a democrat and no Native Americans. Why would that be?
All those races in 1986 made that year an incredible political year. There were policy differences and other matters that may account for Herseth’s loss. It wasn’t just about personality, as G. Marky implies. There was kind of a feud between Daschle and Herseth that I never understood, and Herseth had some backsplash over his support of the Oahe Project. Mickelson had been opposed to that project, and he got support from some strong opponents of that project, who might have been inclined to vote for him otherwise. United Family Farmers and others had helped defeat McGovern in 1980, as well. The wounds from that issue had not died down by 1986 as Janklow pushed The CENDAK project in place of Oahe Project. Mickelson’s greatest achievement, in my mind, was how he reformed the water development issue.
Porter,
I was at a fundraiser for a non-political non-profit and John Thune had donated a signed basketball and Noem donated a signed Carhatt hat for the silent auction. Both items didn’t receive one bid.
@TC … Pretty funny. Rep. Noem used to dress up like a wannabe cow princess. Billie took away that card. She claims to have been a rancher. It takes more than a few beef cattle to be a rancher. It takes more than leasing out the land you inherited to be a farmer. It takes more than doing what you’re told [by Tea Party contributors], to be a Governor, too.
Porter belittles women.
Tiff does anyone at a non-profit make money?
I’ll tell you, when I was auditing “non-profits” it was an eye opener on how much money the workers lined their pockets with. Non- profit is a label for the tax man. The only difference between a non-profit and a corporation is a non- profit spends all their money on the wages of the corporate owners while a for-profit can retain profits to remain in business the next year. Fact.
Uh, huh. Ignored …
Tiffany, that is hilarious!! Makes perfect sense too. Who would want either one? I’ll bet there were some snickers.
Those of you who know Sutton, or know more about him and his campaign; how likely is he to get really tough about this and go after Noem?
I would vote for a amoeba before I voted for Kristi or Dusty or any other random people who doesnt warrant mentioning. I don’t need a political rep who mirrors my beliefs. I’m pro-choice, Billie is not. I’m not ok with that, buit I could see the potential for a middle ground. I have some concerns about where Billie stands on other social justice issues. Honestly, I don’t care how someone rides a horse or how they look in their cowboy hat. I care about how they treat people. I care if they will enact policies that are well thought out and take a stand against policies that attack others. There are a diverse group of people in this world. Billie didn’t respond when asked his stance/perspective on immigration, the lgtbq community and the race. Sorry, total rant..
Ask Billie what his thoughts are on immigration, th lgbtq community, race? We know he is pro-life..that doesn’t sit well with me, but I can meet him somewhere in the middle. If he responds to deeper inquiries about social justice issues…please let me know, as my inquiry went unanswered. I will never vote for someone like Kristi or Dusty..but
Trump’s unexpected win should be a source of inspiration and hope for Sutton and his supporters. If Donald did it Billy can too.
Healthcare 0pen enrollment is coming up quick Billie. You may want to suggest that we still do not have the Billion dollar influx into South Dakota coffers from its lack and what you intend to do about making sure grandma does not have to sit at the curb in the rain. State receipts from on line taxes will not even come close to what is being lost in tourism and the gorilla in the room, ag production receipts.
You know when Moses went to where ever to get the 10 Commandments I am sure OldSausage was right there advising him on the finer points of ignoring them.
OldSSSSSSSSS has been everywhere and done everything there is to do. Just ask him.
My apologies for being off topic. But I was right on target.
The “loopholes” mfi, you have to know the loopholes to dodge those 10 Suggestions. Ask trump or the other Russian, they know the tricks.
Does anyone have any idea when Billie is gonna come out spurring? This quiet cowboy stuff may get you an extra piece of pie at the church social but it ain’t gonna do a damn bit of good against a polished liar like NOem. Get after it, think like ya got 8 seconds and make make the jump.
Billie Sutton is the face of healthcare and it’s importance. There would be no way in hell he could get insurance without the ACA as he would have to be underwritten. That pre existing condition is kind of dominant. Make the case Billie.
I’m with you Jerry. He’s got to get after it, make his case, starkly, point out Noem’s many, many shortcomings. Well, okay, he should only hit the highlights. Well, okay, still need to narrow it down more– the highest of the highlights.
Debbo, you’re correct, there are so many highlights how can he miss. She was a dud in South Dakota before she became a dud in Washington. Start someplace Billie, there is plenty of material, just go to work and get’r done.
elect republicans again and this is what SD is heading toward (map of pig farms in NC on eastern part of state generating “500 times the population of DC…”:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/13/climate/hurricane-florence-environmental-hazards.html
Republicans and certainly Kochs installed in SD don’t care about our environment. Environmental regulations by Democratic policy makers will protect what we have.
OldSarge, “I enjoyed the whole thing and then I noticed it never says he is a democrat and no Native Americans. Why would that be?”
Although this is a rhetorical question and we have discussed this on other posts, the answer is that we elect people not parties (or at least we should). I also think you and I have agreed in the past that person not party is how we SHOULD be deciding leadership positions. Both of us have tilted at the windmill of partisanship quite often, so this has to be a good thing — right?
Michelle Lavallee spoke at Pierre’s first pride event along with Randy Seiler in early July.
I highly doubt a gubernatorial candidate would send their running mate to a very obviously pro-LGBTQIA event if they harbored ill-will towards that group.
ACB makes a good recent-historical point. Sutton also allowed Lavallee to say right after her nomination that she disagrees with Sutton on abortion rights (i.e., she is pro-choice).
Advocates of equal, inclusive justice will find Sutton’s door far more open than Noem’s.
Sutton just improved his chances even further with the escalated trade war from the trump and his republican enablers. Had Enough Yet? Vote Democrats. It still is the economy, you know.
“President Trump, emboldened by America’s economic strength and China’s economic slowdown, escalated his trade war on Monday, saying the United States would impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and was prepared to tax all Chinese imports if Beijing dared to retaliate.
Mr. Trump, in a statement released late Monday, showed no sign of backing down from the type of full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies that has rattled financial markets, saying he was prepared to “immediately” place tariffs on another $267 billion worth of imports “if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries.”” New York Times 09/17/2018
Ag producers and consumers, hang on. This is gonna hit us even further in our wallets.
You know China is not gonna take this without some kind of retribution. Not hard to see how this comes down on ag country, so now they will branch out to consumers who so far, have not seen the pain that farmers have.
Sutton improves a bunch! Bah Zing! “In our latest handicapping of the nation’s 36 races for governor, we’re shifting the ratings for 10 of them: six in the Democrats’ direction and four in the Republicans’.
The six seats moving in Democrats’ favor are in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Wisconsin. And the four seats shift toward the GOP are in Alaska, Maine, Oregon and Rhode Island.” http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-governors-races-handicapping-september.html
Go Billie Go!