Good night—is anyone going to do reliable polling on the Jackley/Noem race?
An Alabama campaign consulting firm claims that its “independent” polling shows our two Republican candidates for governor are tied.
No campaign consulting firm can be called “independent.” They make money helping candidates win. An Alabama firm doesn’t call around South Dakota to poll our governor’s race unless there’s something in it for them.
And even the mathematically challenged Noem, who doesn’t want bogus claims of dead heat crowding out her bogus claims of massive lead, can tell the methodology of the poll is dubious. 93% of the 350 respondents said they are “certain” to vote in the Republican primary for governor; 6% said they are likely to vote, and 1% said the chances are 50/50. Yet only 79% of the respondents said they are Republicans. Someone out of the 70-some non-Republican respondents had to know that they not only aren’t going to vote but can’t vote in the Republican primary for governor. The gap between 99% certain/likely voters and 79% eligible Republican voters far exceeds the 5.2% margin of error.
In short, ignore this poll.
Polls that intentionally mislead voters often mislead a candidate.
A candidate must want the most accurate polling available in order to be able to respond to a rival appropriately.
Foolish candidates that spend money on fake pollsters deserve to lose their race.
I went to the pollsters’ website and it’s nothing more than a “contact us” page. No information on staff, clients, past and current polls, news coverage, etc.
Maybe there are people that enjoy answering questions in a manner that just messes up these annoying phone ringers’ statistics. Maybe, all polls are bull except the one in your gut, which tells you that Mr. Sutton has only a slightly easier row to hoe than Ms. Wismer did. Sutton can do his from a seated position because he’s a more optimistic fellow, but it’s a tough row to hoe.
Eeyore would have been better suited to eat the beets out of the dirt than whack them with a hoe.
Michael, indeed, the absence of information about the firm gives us all the more reason to discount its statements. There is nothing online to support either their independence or their reliability.
Grudz, good pollsters can overcome such sabotagers.
Roger, you’re right—fake pollsters are just a subset of the consultant class whose only interest is making money off the electoral process. This poll is about driving perceptions, not truth.
Noem decries the poll and Jackley is talking it up, which suggests Jackley paid for the data and is trying to get his money’s worth. But I wonder: if Jackley paid, wouldn’t he have wanted a team that would publish better results about himself? Does it serve his interests to simply post a “dead heat” poll to challenge Noem’s “I’m ahead big!” narrative?
What I found interesting about the two polls I’ve participated in, is they asked me WHY I was voting for a particular candidate.
These are polls to help the candidates do opposition research and find ways to resonate with the voters more than they are ways to determine who’s voting for whom.
However, I would like to point out that the poll’s responses don’t necessarily mean the results are bogus.
The polls asked the demographic questions first. First they asked if I was a registered Republican. Then they asked my age. These questions are eligibility questions and questions to ensure a representative sample. So it’s probable the results from the remaining questions were only from respondents who said they were a registered member of the GOP.
Coming soon to an election near you …
~ A “PUSH POLL” is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to manipulate or alter prospective voters’ views/beliefs under the guise of conducting an opinion poll.
~ In a push poll, large numbers of voters are contacted with little effort made to actually collect and analyze voters’ response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as an opinion poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo, or information gleaned from opposition research on the political opponent of the interests behind the poll.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
Coming sooner to an election near you, Russians. Take a look at this graph to show the collusion between Cohen and trump on the sale of influence. http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-pol-g-cohen-russia-payments-network-20180510-story.html#nws=mcnewsletter
Let’s see how smart the Democrats are.
What did Cohen do that was illegal?
jerry
Did you happen to see the 3000 ads that Putin’s Internet Research Agency unleashed on Trumptards in the 2016 election?
republicans didn’t want the House Intel Committee to release them, but the patriotic Democrats felt that America should see how Putin/Trump indoctrinated Trumptards in the 2016 campaign with fake news.
Trumptards were not only gullible enough to believe the fake news ads, they were eager to spread them at an alarming rate.
Glad you asked. ” Rudy Giuliani said Wednesday that President Donald Trump paid back his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, the $130,000 in hush money that was used to pay off Stormy Daniels.
Giuliani’s statement — to Fox News’ Sean Hannity — contradicted Trump, who previously denied knowledge of the payment, which has since spurred a lawsuit against the President.
Later, Giuliani told The Washington Post he had spoken to the President far in advance about publicly discussing the reimbursement, and said he doesn’t expect to be fired. He said his remarks on Hannity were approved by Trump.”
I am thinking that there is something wrong when you do not disclose these sorts of payments in the form thingys you are supposed to report those kinds of transactions on. A court will decide on this matter.
Jerry,
Did you know a majority of the ads were put out after the election?
Rob Goldmarn: The majority of the Russian ad spend happened AFTER the election. We shared that fact, but very few outlets have covered it because it doesn’t align with the main media narrative of Tump and the election. https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2017/10/hard-questions-russian-ads-delivered-to-congress/ …
8:57 PM – Feb 16, 2018
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/02/facebook_vp_of_advertising_russian_ads_couldnt_have_affected_election_because_most_came_after_the_vote.html
Poor Roger. Maybe next time.
It is a fact that Michael Cohen has not been charged with any crime.
It is also a fact that Cohen is under intense investigation by Robert Mueller and the attorney general of New York.
It is fact that Stormy has numerous lawsuits against Trump and Cohen.
It is a fact that Stormy and her attorney were able to disclose the pay-to-play scam Trump and Cohen were running against AT&T and others.
It also sounds as if the House will take up the matters involving Cohen and start their own investigation.
What ads are you talking about? The one that says PUTIN IS NUMBER ONE or the RUSSIAN’S RULE?
BORSCHT, IT’S WHATS FOR DINNER da, that was a good one.
Both articles posted by that someone are outdated and irrelevant and come from less then credible sources.
So much has changed since October 2017, it seems that someone with an ounce of intelligence would want to keep up with current events.
O.J. was charged with a crime and then acquitted. Then he was found guilty in a civil matter related to the same murdrs that cost the big fella a ton of money. GUILTY as charged. Bah zing!
trump and Cohen will probably try to goose old O.J. to sell him a pardon. Those are fairly cheap these days.
Roger is calling Rob Goldman a liar now. Keep digging that hole Roger.
Cohen’s crimes- https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8XIYuU5kBe4/WvNq3wavmgI/AAAAAAABx5k/5Yf6KALUJkUfF_d8d82Tp28ovEGU2ZnnQCLcBGAs/s1600/bribery.jpg
It does not matter if more were released after the election. The Drumpf administration and stoopid wingnuts claim there was no attempts to hack the election, which these ads surely dispel.
Poor wingnuts have so many Drumpf lies to defend they can’t can’t even begin to remember most of them. You see the problem with putting Drumpf under oath, don’t you? Of course, wingnuts will all of a sudden decide perjury and lying to congress is no big deal with a wingnut does it.
Mike how does an ad hack the election?
Lol.
Roger did not call Rob Goldman a “liar”, in fact “liar” is not mentioned in my comment. The Goldman article is outdated and irrelevant.
Reading comprehension skills of Trumptards is either lacking or limited.
Roger, most of the ads were bought after the election, thus had no affect on the election.
Nice that a Trumptard acknowledges that Putin unleashed fake news ads on Facebook to influence and indoctrinate the “poorly educated” Trump followers.
Most of the ads were not pro-Trump according to a Washington Post article dated 5-10-2018. Is that current enough for you Rodger? Lol.
Damn ignorant Trumptards.
My name is spelled R-O-G-E-R.
Wayne, thanks for sharing your survey experience. Those “why” questions are certainly useful to a campaign for messaging.
I wondered the same thing Wayne does: maybe the pollsters reported the percentages of each party, then only asked the Republicans about their certainty to participate in the primary. But nothing in the released documentation indicates any such winnowing took place. The consulting firm presents the “350 respondents” info right above its report on likelihood to vote in the primary.
Sorry, nothing to do with a bubba outfit that can’t count, but when you can count down correctly you can get these results, ain’t this lift off and recovery a sight of beauty? That young Musk kid knows how to get’r done. http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-spacex-launch-attempt-friday-20180511-story.html
What polling firm with ANY experience would fail to check primary election requirements for voters in the state in which they are polling? Almost everyone reading this blog knows better.
My sense is that Noem is ahead. Maybe 5+ points with likely voters. The responses by Noem and Jackley camps seem to confirm that as well. He is touting a poll that is essentially a tie. She is disputing it.
I believe that she has a superior campaign. More professional. His commercials seem like cheap productions of mediocre ideas…. especially the “humorous” ones.
It’s funny how different a picture I get not having television. None of our statewide candidates have dropped ads into my Hulu yet.
You don’t have TV? How do you watch the Twins? :(