Sutton Stronger with SD Trump Voters Than Casual National Press Thinks?

Billie Sutton isn’t getting a break from outside observers. Our Democratic candidate for Governor hasn’t budged in Governing‘s handicapping of the race. Last October, Louis Jacobson called the Senator from Burke “an enormous underdog.” Five months later, after the 2017 campaign finance reports showed that Sutton raised more money per day than either of his main Republican challengers, Jacobson maintains that Sutton’s chances are minimal:

GOP Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem are facing off in a highly competitive Republican primary. Whoever wins the nomination will be an overwhelming favorite in this solidly red state.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are expected to nominate state Sen. Billie Sutton, a former rodeo star who was injured in the ring and is now in a wheelchair. Sutton will be fighting against the current in the general election [Louis Jacobson, “Can Democrats Flip Crucial Governors’ Seats?“].

Jacobson still may not be paying attention to anything beyond the visuals and past election data. Sutton contends that his record of election success matters:

He says he has shown how a democrat can win elections in South Dakota.

“I got elected in 2010 as a Democrat in a Republican district,” Sutton said [Tom Savage, “Sutton Turns Attention to Governor,” KELO-AM, 2018.03.30].

Sutton can also point to his ability to convince Trumpist South Dakotans that he can govern more honestly than Marty Jackley and more effectively than Kristi Noem:

As I read Cal Thomas in the paper, I prayed the people in South Dakota would all read it and keep from being impressed with the flood of activity by Marty Jackley. I made up my mind about him long ago when the news was about GEAR UP. This man did nothing to find out the guilty people. Why? Maybe he was part of getting his share of the millions intended to advance the lives of young Indians education in South Dakota. Who could really tell what went on? Both men supposedly committed suicide. Any intelligent person knows the one didn’t place the gun in a tree and poke the trigger with a stick. And anyone who really thinks, would realize a man would not kill his children. There were people who saw non-local cars in the area at that time! I truly believe murder in both cases. And the top law officer in the state couldn’t figure anything out?

I hope South Dakota does not put a man like that in care of the state.

I’m not fond of the lady either, she missed a lot of meetings in Washington if the news I read is correct. The Governor has to be on the ball every day! I think I’ll vote for Billie Sutton. Not because I’ve been a Democrat, but because he is really an honest, hardworking South Dakota man [Virginia Muirhead, letter to the editor, Mitchell Daily Republic, 2018.03.25].

Jacobson predicts five to seven of the 36 governorships up for election this year could flip back to Democrats. Republicans currently hold 33 governships; Democrats hold 16. Alaska is governed by independent Bill Walker.