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Realtors: GOP Tax Plan Raises Middle-Class Taxes, Lowers Home Values

Senators John Thune and Mike Rounds are joining House Ways and Means chairman Kevin Brady in bald-faced lying that the tax cuts for the wealthy they are pushing are really tax relief for the middle class.

But don’t take this liberal blogger’s word and links. Listen to the National Association of Realtors, who pop this ad into my morning Googling:

Realtors online ad, screen cap 2017.12.01.
Realtors online ad, screen cap 2017.12.01.

In a sample letter they urge voters to forward to Thune, Rounds, and other wrong-headed Republicans, the realtors argue predictably that limiting the mortgage deduction will be bad for homeowners. But they spread the field to other bad tax changes and say the GOP tax plan could reduce home values by 10%, which loss of equity would have big economic impacts:

This bill is a direct threat to consumers and homeowners. Not only will millions of homeowners not benefit from the proposal, many will get a tax increase. Additionally, homeowners could lose substantial equity from the more than 10% drop in home values likely to result if the bill is enacted. The legislation will decimate the long-standing incentives for homeownership.

  • Increases the standard deduction, which puts homeownership tax incentives beyond the reach of 95% of American families.
  • Changes the exemption for capital gains tax from the sale of a primary residence
  • Eliminates the deduction for state and local taxes.
  • Restricts the deduction for personal casualty losses to presidentially declared disasters.
  • Restricts the deduction for moving expenses to active duty military.

All this from a bill that is supposed to improve the current tax system. Not only is this legislation a clear and present danger to American homeownership, it will cost our children and grandchildren $1.5 trillion in new federal debt. Vote no on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Do not turn America from a home-owning nation to a home-renting nation [National Association of Realtors, “Don’t Slam the Door on Homeownership by Raising Taxes on Middle Class Homeowners,” retrieved 2017.12.01].

I turn to Hollywood for real Christian values, and I turn to Realtors® for an honest reading of the Republican tax plan. The world goes further upside-down….

The National Association of Realtors gave John Thune $9,990 in 2016 and Mike Rounds $10,000 in 2014. In 2016, the realtors split their federal campaign contributions 58% Republican and 42% Democratic.

41 Comments

  1. o 2017-12-01 08:28

    This has to be one of those time that the truth matters. Talking heads can say what they wish about what this plan does, but it easily verifiable by what is written. Moreover, if law, the effects of this on peoples’ taxes will be real. Slipping past the accountability of the truth now does not give a free pass to later, does it? Is the GOP betting on an absurdly short memory of taxpaying voters or a hard sell of “if you didn’t like it why did you support it?” dodge later? Or is this the final play in the control of US politics, as long as the 1% and corporations are happy, Senators and Congressmen are secure? How far can the 1% get the rest of America to vote against its interests?

  2. jimmy james 2017-12-01 08:31

    Don’t forget Thune and Noem’s favorite…. estate tax repeal. You know the tax that currently applies to estates over 11 million dollars.

    They say it hurts “family farms and small businesses”. They want full repeal so that all of those billion dollar family farms in South Dakota can be saved!

  3. jerry 2017-12-01 08:47

    The republican cannot govern, simple as that. rump proved that when he had the photo-op with Ryan and turtle man with the two missing chairs belong to the Democratic leadership. That proved in a nutshell that the only way we can ever get governance is with a strong two party system. One thing for certain though, they are damn good at stealing and screwing things up. Wait until they come after the Black Hills and the Badlands National Parks.

  4. jerry 2017-12-01 08:51

    What others say about the tax theft.

    “”
    David Leonhardt
    David Leonhardt
    Op-Ed Columnist
    This is madness.
    Senate leaders are now hastily trying to rewrite a sprawling tax bill — one that touches almost every part of the economy — and then pass it mere hours later. They need to do so because an independent Senate analysis late yesterday made clear what everyone already knew: The bill would add to the deficit enormously. In a normal legislative process, the Senate would have received that analysis long before taking any vote.
    Now senators are searching for changes to make the bill more politically palatable. But the notion of making those changes today and then speeding immediately to a vote is madness. There would be no time for experts to consider the consequences — to discover the sort of problems and unintended effects that last-minute changes are bound to create. By the time they did, the Senate would have passed it.
    Already, the tax bill has been pushed ahead in an unprecedented fashion. Obamacare had months of hearings and debates. So did the tax cuts signed by George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan and the deficit-reduction packages signed by Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.”” New York Times

  5. Darin Larson 2017-12-01 08:55

    Could the Republican tax bill be any more of a give-away to the rich and powerful?

    While disincentivizing home ownership and effectively lowering middle class home values, the Republican tax bill keeps outrageous tax breaks for golf course owners:

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/11/gop-plan-retains-tax-break-for-owners-of-golf-courses.html

    The article above raises the question of whether state and local taxes (Salt) which won’t be deductible by individual tax payers under the Republican tax bill will nonetheless be deductible by pass through entities like LLC’s and S corporations. This wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that Trump receives most of his income through these entities and would thus retain these tax deductions for himself? No, couldn’t be.

  6. Wayne B. 2017-12-01 08:56

    Let’s stick to housing.

    If housing prices fall 10%, who wins & loses? Current home owners lose. But renters and lower class workers now have more affordable housing options, right? The median house value in Aberdeen is about $138,000 (according to City-Data). If the median house value drops 10%, the new median would be $124,200 (that’s about $700 in savings per year in mortgage costs). That’s immediately more affordable, even if you can’t itemize the taxes and mortgage interest. Your taxes would go down as well, because assessed values would have to be adjusted.

    We’ve seen the deleterious effects of government interventions on housing policy (pushing loans to poor credit risks which ultimately destabilized our economy). We shouldn’t put a finger on those scales; Uncle Sam shouldn’t reward me for buying a house and “punish” my friend for just renting.

  7. Buckobear 2017-12-01 08:59

    Marion-go-Round and Name that Thune lie? Ridiculous!

  8. Buckobear 2017-12-01 08:59

    Marion-go-Round and Name that Thune lie? Ridiculous!

  9. Rorschach 2017-12-01 09:03

    We know that the GOP Party tax bill is a massive giveaway to the wealthy. But I’m for capping the mortgage interest deduction. That particular cap actually limits tax breaks for the wealthy. It doesn’t limit incentives to purchase just any home. Rather it limits incentives to purchase a high dollar home with a high mortgage. Democrats should all be in favor of such things. We can talk about what level such a cap should be set given home values on the coasts, but the concept is a good one. The realtor position against any cap is clearly self-serving.

  10. John Tsitrian 2017-12-01 09:07

    Wayne B., the likely result of any economic stimulus combined with an expansion of federal debt created by this plan will raise interest rates and offset the supposed benefit of cheaper homes. That $700/year savings you tout is based on current interest rates. If they go up by even 1 percent on your theoretical Aberdeen home, those savings will effectively be wiped out. I posted Moody’s economist Mark Zandi’s forecast in another thread, where he makes the same “higher interest rates offsetting other gains” in his argument that the tax cut is setting itself up for failure.

  11. Jivin Knute 2017-12-01 09:08

    Trying to express one’s opinions to Thune and Rounds is an abject lesson in futility…

  12. Darin Larson 2017-12-01 09:17

    Wayne B.,

    You kind of gloss over “Current home owners lose” like the following: People on fixed incomes that need the equity in their home to live on. People that just purchased homes and are now under water on what they owe on their mortgage. People that will need to sell their house in the next year or two just lost a pile of money. 10% times all the residential real estate in the US is a really big number.

    I’m skeptical of your affordable housing argument: $700 a year in theoretical savings is $58.33 a month. Is $58.33 a month going to do much for home affordability. Existing rental properties have their cost structure built in already so they won’t be decreasing their rental rates to any real extent. Real estate taxes going down would be astonishing to me. I’ve never seen it happen.

    Favorable tax treatment of home ownership has been one of the great builders of wealth for the middle class in this country through the last 70 years. Your friend not taking advantage of a universally available middle class tax incentive is not punishment. It is his or her choice.

  13. Darin Larson 2017-12-01 09:32

    Great point, John Tsitrian. I would apply that reasoning to the whole of this tax bill boondoggle. The Fed is raising rates, albeit slowly, to make sure that inflationary forces do not ignite. The faster the economy expands, the more the Fed will be raising interest rates. To the extent that this tax bill increases growth rates, the Fed will provide counterbalancing interest rate hikes and tightening monetary policy. So, the $1 to $1.5 trillion in debt we will accumulate for our children and grandchildren will probably just result in higher interest rates that will increase the cost of carrying our existing federal debt. We will be right back to square one, only having dug our debt hole a little deeper.

    To be clear, I’m not against targeting tax relief for the middle class to spur consumer demand and contribute to wage growth (which has been stagnant). But a tax cut for the wealthiest Americans who were prospering disproportionately to the rest of America already is unsupportable, especially when our children and grandchildren will be stuck with the bill.

  14. Wayne B. 2017-12-01 12:31

    Darin,

    I fully acknowledge glossing over the “current homeowners lose” statement. Part of that is from a dismissal of the flawed theory that homes are actually reliable long-term sources of equity. 2008 busted that myth. That’s why my wife & I chose to buy a house that only takes up 10% of our “GDP”, rather than stretching to the max we could afford. It is foolish to perpetuate the myth that your house is your nest egg. Failing to break that cycle only sets up another generation for failure in their retirement years.

    My focus on the affordability aspect is purely on a broad level. I have no idea where the 10% drop in home values comes from (for instance, is it homes above $500,000 dropping at 20% while homes worth $60,000 aren’t dropping at all? If that’s the case, then it’s NOT helpful for lower income families to afford homes). Rather, I’m working with averages.

    $700 may not sound like much, and indeed John T. brings up a salient point that some of that may be lost due to inflation. However, if we use our Aberdeen example, a 5.5% interest rate on a $124,000 home only costs $75 more per year than a 4.5% interest rate, so you’d still have $625 more in the pocket. Additionally, inflation of interest rates naturally constricts pricing – if fewer people can afford $150,000 homes at 5.5% interest than 4.5% interest, then the market tends to adjust that home to the point where it sells, as the owners grow more desperate to rid themselves of the house.

    My argument is that by removing tax incentives, which are a poor mechanism of driving social policy, we might actually increase the ability of the lower class to get out of apartments and into homes. $700 is not much to you, perhaps, but it is proportionally greater to the family making $30k than the family making $75k per year. In that respect, it may hurt the existing homeowners less than it helps low income potential homeowners.

    Remember, we have much better direct means to help people gain home ownership, rather than giving a blanket incentive to everyone regardless of their means. In fact, the wealthiest get the most benefit – you can deduct for a second home! Why should we be subsidizing 25 – 33% of peoples’ vacation home interest and property tax expenses? First time home buyers can have access to better interest rates, for instance. Maybe that’s the best counter to John’s point.

    Mind you, I’m not advocating for this tax plan. I’m advocating for tax reform. I like the idea of increasing the standard deduction universally, rather than promoting individual exemptions. It grants a base floor that everyone – especially those on the lower distribution of incomes – gets to take advantage of, and reduces incentives to game the system.

  15. Roger Cornelius 2017-12-01 12:41

    The GOP just announced that they have the votes to pass this debacle with Sen. Flake the only republican holdout.
    vice president mike pence will likely have to cast the deciding vote.

  16. Darin Larson 2017-12-01 13:19

    Wayne, I’m not following the math in your example of the $124,000 home. A difference of 1% interest for a year on $124,000 is $1,240 or about $100 a month.

    I agree with you and Rorschach, that the mortgage deduction should be limited to middle class housing and certainly limited to one primary residence.

  17. Loren 2017-12-01 14:57

    Fun fact that I just heard on the news (REAL news): Sen McCaskel (sp) of MO told CNN that no Democrat has been given a copy of the tax proposal, but she was able to get one from… wait for it… A LOBBIEST!!!! No hearings. No debate. NO DOCUMENT, but let’s vote! We need a “win”. How do you spell hypocrite? R-E-P-U-B-L-I-C-A-N!

  18. OldSarg 2017-12-01 20:46

    Doesn’t matter. It’s going to pass and all the crying on this site won’t stop it. Trump is dragging the Nation to success against the will of the haters.

    You know, I have never been a Trump fan but watching the man work may be exactly what this Nation has needed since Reagan.

  19. jerry 2017-12-01 21:43

    I dunno, but it looks to me like this is not going to be good for the agricultural economy of the state. Of course that will not matter to NOem/Thune or Rounds as they do not have any relationships with agriculture except for the big boys.

  20. leslie 2017-12-01 21:58

    Never heard of trump, right sarge? you’ve been talking about him ever since coming on here.

    “crying on this site won’t stop it”–u mean in absence of debate, bipartianism or very limited invitation only meetings in the state by the three amigos?

    did u enlist for authoritarianism or democracy?

  21. Darin Larson 2017-12-01 22:28

    I’m not Reagan’s biggest fan, but comparing Trump to Reagan has to turn the stomach of most Reagan fans. At least Reagan was a decent actor and Reagan’s view of America was as a shining city on a hill, not some dark place that needed to be made great again by building walls and locking up political opponents. Reagan didn’t vilify immigrants and people of other faiths. He allowed them to live the American dream and America was better for it. Reagan was a great speaker and the “Great Communicator.” Trump is the Great Liar and a Twitter freak who can barely string two sentences together without sticking his foot in his mouth. Reagan wasn’t great on details, but he looks like Einstein compared to Trump. Reagan worked with Democrats and Trump would rather work with child molesters. I don’t really see much similarity.

  22. jerry 2017-12-01 23:00

    Looks like there may be some hard times coming for the ag producers on top of the already hard times. https://www.ft.com/content/b743e120-b839-11e7-8c12-5661783e5589 Keep voting republican and clapping your hands boys, it will all be good cause NOem/Thune/Rounds and the russian dude all say so.

  23. OldSarg 2017-12-02 05:50

    Ok, the Senate is done now it’s time to push in the House. The wave keeps building, overwhelming the the crying children on the sides, as the Bill moves forward to become Law. The first small legislative step, but an important step, in this battle to save our Nation. The Republic will once again be safe as the Trump agenda drives forward, lowering the burden on the people, securing our borders, building our military back, eliminating the sexual predators in the democrat party, ending the seemingly endless middle east war, forcing the Obama corruption of the DoJ, FBI, IRS and CIA into the light and once again bringing the swollen government back to a proper size. The people understand, know and back these efforts. The people have spoken; this is not a Nation of parties but of Americans. The republicans know their future is on the line as the democrats fight their fruitless battle by refusing to participate as their diminutive minions cry their days away on lost obscure blog sites crying “racism” at all who do not line up to run over the edge. The end of the battle is not nigh but rather just now building but the power in this fight is on the side of the people. We will not be stopped! We will not yield! We will not forgive. . .

  24. jimmy james 2017-12-02 07:03

    Some are calling it the Kidney Stone Tax Bill. Once it passes, great relief….

    for the wealthy.

  25. jerry 2017-12-02 07:55

    Well then, the senate republican, thune/rounds, just showed us all their arse’s, surprise! Now this grand theft has to go back to the House. Hint, call NOem and tell her what you expect from her to save the family farm and Uncle Joe who has cancer and needs treatment. This pig needs to be reconciled and that is where you all come in, call her and tell her that she is killing the family farms and that they will be killing the future of her own grandchildren with this fraud. NOem may think she has all the money in the world, but she sure as hell does not. Legacy only goes so far.

  26. mike from iowa 2017-12-02 08:27

    OldScourge- Mueller flipped Flynn, Flynn must testify against Drumpf in court on demand. He is prepared to tell the world he was ordered to contact Russia for Drumpf last year.

    Flynn to Drumpf-

    How do you like me now?
    Now that yer on yer way
    Headed off to impeachment land
    Happy to lend my say

    You wouldn’t let me serve you
    but, I always dreamed about
    tossing yer orange ass under the bus
    how do you like me, NOW!

    Tip o’ the jat to Toby Keith (whom I despise near as much as Drumpf)

  27. OldSarg 2017-12-02 09:27

    Darin, 30% or 90% it doesn’t matter.

  28. Darin Larson 2017-12-02 09:52

    30% or 90% will matter next year.

  29. jerry 2017-12-02 11:42

    Mr. Larson, sarge is just trolling you. He has proven beyond doubt that he is not a business owner or many of the claims he has made here. If he was a business owner, he would proudly declare what kind of business he has that will be immune to what hell hath wrought to that small business with this grand theft as colored by the 2nd graders.

    The House gets this back soon or later and will have to do something with it to reconcile the handwriting on the bathroom walls in this case. In the meantime, the clock is ticking for long term funding of the government itself, 6 days by my watch. Fun times.

  30. Darin Larson 2017-12-02 18:59

    jerry, I know Oldsarg is a troll. But we need someone to represent Trump and the Republicans on here. If we all just agree that Trump is an idiot and the Republican tax plan is the best plan for the rich that money could buy, it makes it less compelling to comment. In short, we need a foil.

  31. jerry 2017-12-02 19:32

    Indeed, you are correct Mr. Larson. Besides, he does provide good entertainment that you can count on.

  32. Roger Cornelius 2017-12-02 20:27

    I made my New Year’s resolutions early, at the top of the list is “OldSarge doesn’t matter”.

  33. OldSarg 2017-12-02 21:33

    Good for you Roger. Maybe you’ll read something in the future as well. Maybe about independence, freedom, individuality. . . It’s clear you have decided a big government is somehow going to give you more as opposed to giving you independence of thought. Me, I’m just an artist, a maker of things I find expressive. A free man who does not see some government “granting” me my rights.

    Seriously Roger you know me already. We have talked, laughed and discussed things person to person. I see it was a facade now. Sad in a way. I always thought you were more open to differing views and opinions. I must of been mistaken. My bad.

  34. OldSarg 2017-12-02 21:34

    Jerry is simply stupid.

  35. Roger Cornelius 2017-12-02 22:40

    Big government is dangerous, as we have seen with the Trump administration, and I have never supported it. I have no idea where that idea came from. republicans can’t convince me that they are anti-big government when they profit from all aspects of it.
    I do not know this anonymous OldSarge character, friends and people I know are not afraid to use the real names when posting on social media. OldSarge seems to be delusional, he has created a façade involving me, and that is sad.
    Anyway, this all a distraction from the Trump tax fiasco and Mueller’s Russian investigation.

  36. mike from iowa 2017-12-03 08:59

    OldRivers is represented by the party taking internet options away (freedumb he calls it) and letting right wing billionaires buy up media in the biggest markets to limit dumbass’ choice to right wing propaganda and he thinks liberals are against freedoms?

    OldSergei, you are completely full of skit! And don’t try to pull the wah,wah,wah I am the victim. Liberal bullies are calling me names.You and ter hesthen wingnut compadres have overused that card and all the grief you get is only what you deserve.

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