Jonathan Ellis sees Kristi Noem’s chances of winning the Republican nomination for governor depending on what her party can get done in the coming fourteen months in Congress:
In Congress since 2011, her fight against Obama’s policies will likely be the crown jewel of her campaign. But in recent weeks, a problem has emerged. Republicans fell on their face trying to make good on a years-long promise to repeal and replace Obamacare. Now, there’s a real danger that they end up accomplishing zilch in terms of grand policy goals, even though they control the legislative and executive branches of federal government. It would be a historical squandering of political power, and one that would leave Noem vulnerable to criticism that she was among a band of GOP loafers who couldn’t get anything done even when they had numerical superiority [Jonathan Ellis, “Guerilla Warfare in GOP Race for Gov.,” that Sioux Falls paper, 2017.04.08].
Funny that our in-state race would depend on federal action. Given that Noem’s primary opponent Marty Jackley is also playing the federal game, signing onto lawsuits against the Affordable Care Act, for Trump’s unconstitutional immigration policy, for Alabama’s abortion restrictions, and against the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, we could draw the conclusion that South Dakota Republican primary candidates and voters alike are woefully distracted by their conservative hobbyhorses and not focused nearly enough on the practical issues facing South Dakota and the qualifications to deal with those issues.
What ever “her party” gets done, it sure won’t have anything to do with her. She has been NOTHING but a sure vote for anything House leadership wanted. Has never had anything to do with S Dakotans. But she sure looks good on a horse! Sheesh!
Now that you’re a lame duck Congresswoman with sites on the Governorship, why not sponsor a meaningful bill for Term Limits? At least try to do something constructive for SDakotans.
Ellis may be a real journalist, but he works for the Argus and is an ambulance chaser version of a journalist. It does seem odd they did not boot him when that snarky bald fellow who wore bike shorts to work was send packing.
Congress has been broken ever since Kristi Noem washed into DC on the Tea Party tidal wave back in 2010. She has never, not for one second, contributed even a fraction of a fraction of constructivity to any national conversation.
Congress won’t repair itself fast enough for Kristi to use that in 2018, and seriously, it should be abundently clear that she’s been part of the problem in Washington the whole time she’s been there.
However, if the people of Alaska can vote an idiot like Sarah Palin into their Governors office – and the people of South Dakota can vote Russian Agent Orange into the a White House – hell yeah, Kristi ‘Palin-Trump’ Noem has a shot at our Governor’s office.
If I were Jonathan Ellis – that’s how I would wrote it.
If I were running a Democratic campaign against NOem, the first thing I would nail her on would be her lack of getting anything done for South Dakota. Her derailing projects that Obama had laid forth, hurt South Dakota in many ways. As one example, tell me how the Farm Bill’s did anything to help the family farmer in the long stretch? Those chickens have come home to roost by looking at how depressed it is out in ag country. What companies were enriched by the inevitable natural cycle of Pine Beetle’s that gave Deadwood it’s name before this was even a state?
Ellis is correct in that she should be held accountable for what has happened in Washington to the detriment of the people she was representing…unless you feel that racism trumps economic progress in South Dakota. For that, she proves she can be just as big of a Klan banger than anyone, Jackley included.
Ellis is only confirming what he does whenever he opens his mouth- he is clueless. The choice between Noem and Jackley will determined by who Republicans think can best be Governor based on skill set and vision.
A year ago I was standing with five people who have been intimately involved on the winning and losing side of state-wide elections and they were wistfully talking about Dave Kranz because he at least knew and talked to people in politics. Everyone of them said they had never even had a conversation with anyone at the Argus since Dave left. If this “analyst” has no data from some of the most experienced politicos in the state, this “analyst” is just babbling.
Troy, you don’t think the GOP primary voters will be influenced by their perceptions of Noem’s success at repealing Obamacare or achieving other key items of her Congressional agenda?
In the governor election Noem will be saddled with whatever impression people have of congress and her role in congress. Troy is right about one thing though. Dave Kranz wasn’t hurling insults based upon his own opinions like Ellis does. Kranz cultivated relationships with elected officials and people in the know on both sides. He did actual research before he wrote anything. You don’t learn anything from Ellis like you frequently did from Kranz. I like Ellis’ columns, but they are just empty calories compared to Kranz’s meat and potatoes.
CH,
There is a electoral concept which divides electoral factors into three primary groups:
1) Appeal factors: These are matters which can draw the undecided to a particular camp.
2) Switch factors: These are matters which can cause people to switch candidates (originally in one camp but move over this matter).
3) Reinforcing factors: These are matters which don’t change the field position but motivate one’s supporters going forward.
Regarding #1, there might be a few who are influenced by what Congress as a whole does but I don’t think it will be significant either way (thus I disagree with the thrust of Ellis’ article).
Regarding #2, for people to switch, the matter must transcend everything. Frankly, as important as those issues are, I think most will understand Noem is one of 435 and not the President so I don’t see it as transcending.
Regarding #3, this is where it will impact. If all goes Noem’s way, it will reinforce/invigorate her supporters and be dismissed by those who oppose her as attributable to the President et. al. If it goes against Noem’s way, it will go the other way.
I wonder what has happened to Booker’s share of the national debt in the past 6+ years. Fortunately for Booker, Kristi and her husband have pulled more $$$ out of the federal government than he will owe.
Choices for wingnut guv of wingnut South Dakota in order of their appeal-
1) self-immolation or Cory
2) see choice 1
3) see choice 1
Does anyone here think huether would have a chance against noem or jackley? Why? Why not?
Read what South DaCola has to say about Huether, I did, and just like that, I think he is not up to the job.
NOem/trump brethren caught in Spain. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-russia-idUSKBN17B0O2
How long do you think this guy will last before he has an “accident”? Spanish authorities had better keep him on the ground floor of wherever he is so he does not “fall” to his death.
Huether wouldn’t have a chance against our home grown purdy faced Palin-Trump because on the surface she looks better, and the people of South Dakota are truly that shallow and ignorant.
For all practical purposes, there has never been a Dem Gov in SD. I’m totally sick of the, “one day long ago” stories. Soon, everyone who once ever saw a Dem SD Gov will have all have passed away and we won’t have to hear anymore of those “long ago in a land far away” stories.
We live in a conservative state because for decades most smart kids move away, and smart grownups just simply don’t want to live here. THAT ALONE is why South Dakota is so conservative. It is NOT because conservatism works better for rural people, its because SD is as full of so many unAmericanly ignorant people.
I can make viable cases for a smart motivated person to move out to the Black Hills, but as for the rest of the state – I just can’t/won’t do it.
If you’re gonna ever see a Dem Gov., it will take a bigger personality than any of us have ever seen before. Just forget about it.
Adam,
The quantity and the “quality” of your logic fallacies and non-sequiturs put you in the extreme “non-smart” category yet you aren’t a conservative? Contradicts your premise.
Do you live out-of-state? It would double contradict your premise.
NOem should reprimanded for the sorry way in which she and Thune and Rounds support disenfranchising veterans even further. https://www.wsj.com/articles/impact-of-federal-hiring-freeze-seen-at-veterans-affairs-prisons-social-security-1491735612?emailToken=JRrydft/aXuRgNI3aMw90UUhZbVNDOHMSF7bIWrDPg3MtWbUp+3kyb84ism65HiiSEA/7sxB8WMjSCfYhnEvVcGfkr9lihK8YXhGqZfflBaMMUXSmAuRcOEBrKjJ72wwsvgCRVMNPIFJ
Of course, this also includes our elderly and our disabled. Who has not NOem degraded since she has gone full trumper?
Troy and Grudz waving their ‘hardons’ for out of state posters. Grudz brain is usually encased in gravy fog. Troy wants to be the vicious biter.
Troy, the first few times I read your blogging statements, I truly thought you were about 15 years old. Since then, it has become clear to me that you are not.
Too bad you can’t remember if I live in South Dakota. I remember some basic stuff about you – because I try to be more careful, than you are, about accusing others of being something they are not. Yes, I live in South Dakota – have for many years now.
Any smart (or moderate) conservative who still calls themselves a Republican is pulling a, “if you can’t beat the idiot-fools who’ve taken over the GOP, then join them” sort of thing.
Muslims can build cities of millions of people in the middle of the desert, while South Dakota’s perpetuating decades of conservative government hasent built squat right here in the United States of America.
Mike K, Huether won’t win, because Republicans won’t pick him over their nominee, and Dems won’t get over his kicking them in the shins last November by bailing on the party (and Dems, if you are thinking of getting over it, come talk to me ;-) ).