Governing crunches a whole lot of numbers from the IRS to determine where wealth moved in the United States from 2011 to 2012. The IRS data show the number of tax returns showing a change of address from one county to another from 2011 to 2012. The IRS also sums the total adjusted gross income (AGI, the amount you put on line 37 of your 1040 this year, gross income minus business losses, educator expenses, moving expenses, tuition and fees, and other pre-exemption/deduction adjustments) for in-migrants and out-migrants (shall we test your enunciation skills and say immigrants and emigrants?), from which Governing‘s Mike Maciag calculates a net migration AGI, the amount of new income brought by new households.
Here are the six South Dakota counties where Maciag finds the most movement in the IRS data:
| County | Total Net Migration AGI | Total In-Migration AGI | Total Outmigration AGI | Net Change in # Returns |
| Lincoln | $96,177,000 | $210,545,000 | $114,368,000 | 884 |
| Meade | $34,593,000 | $100,979,000 | $66,386,000 | 367 |
| Lawrence | $5,471,000 | $67,995,000 | $62,524,000 | 62 |
| Brown | $5,285,000 | $41,843,000 | $36,558,000 | 227 |
| Pennington | -$5,022,000 | $158,617,000 | $163,639,000 | 126 |
| Minnehaha | -$39,516,000 | $263,095,000 | $302,611,000 | 228 |
In all six of these counties, more households moved in and filed federal income tax returns than moved away and filed from other counties. But in our two largest counties, Minnehaha and Pennington, a net influx of taxpayers did not lead to a net gain in income. The AGI of folks moving out of Pennington County was $5 million more than the AGI of those who moved in. That gap was even larger in Minnehaha County, almost $40 million.
Those counties’ immediate neighbors, Lincoln and Meade counties, saw net gains in AGI from migrants. The folks who moved to Meade County (and we’re likely talking the Black Hawk-Piedmont-Sturgis suburbiplex along I-90) brought in about $35 million more in income than folks took elsewhere in 2012. The folks who moved to Lincoln County (South Sioux Falls, Tea, Harrisburg…) brought in $96 million more than folks took out of the county.
How can Rapid City and Sioux Falls be gaining taxpayers but seeing a net loss in income from migration? I’ll speculate much of the difference comes from age. Young people head for the big cities, where they can find more jobs. Young people earn less money. Older workers accumulate promotions, raises, investment income, and new business ventures. They can afford to buy bigger houses out in South Dakota’s suburbs. They take their higher incomes up the road from Rapid or down the river from Sioux Falls.
Maciag’s deeper data on each county show that growing South Dakota counties aren’t getting much migration boost from out of state. In Minnehaha, Lincoln, and Brown counties, the top six counties providing in-migrants are all in South Dakota. (Brown’s biggest draws: Edmunds, Minnehaha, Codington, Beadle, Spink, and Pennington). Pennington’s top five sources of in-migrants were all in South Dakota; #6 was Miami-Dade County in Florida. Lawrence County’s top four migrant sources were all in South Dakota; the next two were Campbell and Crook counties in Wyoming, straight west on I-90. Four of Meade’s top six migrant sources were South Dakota counties; it’s #4 was Clark County, Nevada (Vegas!), while it’s #6 was El Paso County, Colorado (Colorado Springs—all the fundagelicals coming to enjoy the End Times at Bear Butte?). The only other major in-migration from out-state in South Dakota’s ten largest counties appears in Yankton County, which swaps migrants with Nebraska’s adjacent Cedar County (Hartington) and gains a few more Nebraskans from Madison County (Norfolk).
There’s still plenty of cross-state migration. In our ten largest counties, only #10 Davison saw more people leave for other states than come from other states, and that margin was quite slim.
The IRS and Governing do not provide data on how many of those migrants are teachers. But I think we know which way that arrow points.
We make a good team, Cory: I plow the road and you paint the lanes.
http://southdakotaprogressive.blogspot.com/2015/08/non-white-populations-growing-six-times.html
Interesting. Isn’t this a classic large city migration pattern? As Sioux Falls and Rapid City grow, crime and other problems become a bigger concern. People with means move farther away from the city center in an effort to escape it. Sioux Falls’ urban apartment complex developments in the works may be what it takes to help slow the trend.
Upper income sioux falls people moving from minnehaha county to brand new Mc mansions in Lincoln County.
Not so fast – Minnehaha County also includes the burgeoning suburbs of Brandon, Hartford, Dell Rapids, Crooks and Baltic. Indeed, more suburban “flighters” there than in Lincoln County. Rorshach is closer to it. Wealthy moving to newer more upscale digs WITHIN SF – in Lincoln County. And, as Spencer notes – wealthy down-sizers are also clamoring for those new Downtown loft developments.