I’ve mentioned before that higher tax rates don’t appear to drive much migration among millionaires. A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that Norway’s recently increased taxes on business wealth pushed a handful of the super-mobile super-rich to move but produced more public revenue without hurting business:
To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021–2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an “exodus” of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times, 2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners’ firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment.… Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms, nor is there any evidence that the reform induced more bankruptcies. These findings indicate that the short-run economic costs of wealth taxation, in terms of migration and firm investment, are more limited than the public debate implies [Marius A.K. Ring, abstract: “Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from Norway, 2021–2025,” National Bureau of Economic Research: Working Papers, October 2026].
And you know, maybe having fewer snooty billionaires crowding your fjord with their yachts is a plus.