Todd Epp’s computer continues to give Governor Larry Rhoden an edge in the Republican gubernatorial primary against Congressman Dusty Johnson, Speaker Jon Hansen, and Trump-aping car salesman Toby Doeden. Todd Epp’s computer is wrong. Dusty Johnson will win:
- Johnson: 46%
- Rhoden: 31%
- Doeden: 12%
- Hansen: 12%
Neither Doeden nor Hansen have break-out potential. Doeden does the best Trump impression in the field—abrasive, deceptive, vulgar, portly, and prone to hyperbole. But Doeden has no established political network or track record. Hansen can rally his supporters among the pro-lifers and the property-rights coalition that rocked the GOP boat in 2024, but Hansen has the least charisma of the four gubernatorial candidates and has an embarrassing record of losing to liberals. They’ll fight for scraps among the radical right wing of the party…
…but Dusty Johnson will eat some of that MAGA lunch, too. In addition to taking the GOP mainstream vote 2 to 1 because of his sensible policy chops, his Daugaardian Chamber of Commerce pedigree, and a superior record of winning statewide races (Dusty has won 5 statewide general elections and 3 statewide primaries; Larry has won zero statewide general elections—winning twice as Kristi Noem’s running mate does not count—on his own and placed second in the 2014 GOP U.S. Senate primary with a dismal 18.2%), Johnson has consistently backed Donald Trump in Congress. Trump has endorsed Johnson before. Trump likes winners and ass-kissers, and Johnson is both. Trump has no reason to betray Johnson and endorse anyone else for South Dakota Governor…
…unless Kristi Noem goes down on her knees again in the Oval Office and asks Trump to help Rhoden out… but why would she do that? She’s in Washington flying nicer jets than South Dakota ever bought her. She has nothing to gain from the outcome of South Dakota’s gubernatorial race. Rhoden has tweaked Noem’s nose in absentia, undoing some of her selfish insularity, releasing records on Noem’s abuse of the state credit card, and changing credit card policies to address those abuses. Rhoden made Noem look bad by advocating and signing the new prison bill that she failed to push through the Legislature. And even if Noem were inclined to ask Trump to intervene in the primary on Rhoden’s behalf, Noem’s relationship with Corey Lewandowski has lessened her flimsy pull with King Don, and Rhoden has done far less for Trump than Johnson has.
Trump isn’t coming to save either MAGA underdog, and he’s not going to reverse past endorsements of Johnson to back low-energy Rhoden.
But doesn’t Rhoden’s incumbency give him some advantage? No. The only big thing he’s achieved (and it is big) is the new prison, but “I Built a Prison!” doesn’t make for a great campaign t-shirt. Otherwise, his fart-sandwich of a budget address shows a lack of vision and proactive policymaking, a critique Johnson is already making, and zero increases for schools, state employees, and Medicaid providers won’t bring enthusiastic supporters to the polls.
You’d think Lieutenant Governors would have an easy time getting voters to promote them. Dennis Daugaard made that case in 2008, but Daugaard was an exception: Before Daugaard, South Dakotans hadn’t elected an LG to the big chair since 1924. Johnson looks a lot more like Daugaard than Rhoden does, and Daugaard has backed Dusty for Governor since before Dusty announced for Governor.
Rhoden looks a lot like the last Lieutenant Governor who ran for a full term after a mid-term promotion, Walter Dale Miller. Like Rhoden, Miller came from Meade County. Like Rhoden, Miller liked cowboy hats (see Miller’s statue in Pierre and his official portrait). Like Rhoden, Miller became LG after lengthy Legislative service (Rhoden 16 years, Miller 20). Like Rhoden, Miller became Governor due to a vacancy in the Governor’s office. And like Rhoden, Miller was challenged in the Republican primary by a younger Republican (Bill Janklow was 14 years younger than Miller; Johnson is 17 years younger than Rhoden) with more dynamism, more experience winning statewide campaigns (like Johnson, Janklow never lost an election), and more experience serving in more statewide offices (Janklow had been Attorney General and Governor; Johnson has been on PUC and in Congress). Like Miller, Rhoden will lose that primary match-up.
In a head-to-head race, Johnson would beat Rhoden 58% to 42%, a wider margin than Janklow’s 54%–46% margin over Miller in 1994. Johnson brings the same advantages Janklow had and none of Wild Bill’s disadvantages—nobody hates Dusty Johnson the way many people hated Bill Janklow.
Throwing in radicals Doeden and Hansen pulls votes from both Johnson and Rhoden, but not enough to challenge Johnson’s supremacy. Just like the 2018 U.S. House primary, a contest with multiple candidates trying to out-Trump each other will divide the MAGA vote, leaving the candidate who holds the mainstream together with a winning plurality. Dusty Johnson won the 2018 U.S. House primary that way, getting 47% of the vote over Shantel Krebs at 29% and Neal Tapio at 24%. Todd Epp’s computer be darned, Johnson will win a similar share of the GOP primary electorate in the 2026 Governor’s race, leaving radicals Doeden and Hansen to nip at Rhoden’s second-place heels.
Sounds about right. Nobody hates Dusty. Even though he’s not a cowboy he’s got the name of one. He’s a RINO by current lack of standard Republicans. So Dusty is an almost extinct moderate pub.
Rhoden can go back to that lovely life of cattle rancher that has been talked about endlessly. He’s got a welding business. I could show him how to weld wonderful metal cattle for his ranch entrance. A side career is always a nice way to kill time.
Johnson’s got a big problem, though. He loves data centers and the nuclear powered energy he thinks they will need. That’s a real mistake, Dusty, because the people are extremely concerned about data centers and the water and power they require. All across the Midwest people are up in arms over these techie billionaires buying their politicians while their energy prices skyrocket and worries about water availability get ignored. Rhoden has also stuck his foot in that pile of dung, though it’s not quite up to his cowboy hat. He can take a shower and clean the manure off, but he better hurry. He can use his veto pen when the next the Johnson-supporting supporting billionaire finagles some legislation in favor of data centers past the always-willing-to-sell-out-South Dakota Letgislature. What the MIdwest needs are Governors who will say “up yours” to the techie billionaire’s and their lackies, including South Dakotans Mark Mickelson and Kyle Peters.
Dusty Johnson definitely has name recognition compared to Larry Rhoden and he’s been in the public limelight for many years. It doesn’t matter that Johnson has accomplished very little or what he wants to do, he has a boyish trustful look about him. Although I call him Howdy Doody, an insult to the little guy, my elderly clients think he’s grand as they listen to his fireside chats on the phone. When Kristi Noem ran the last time, lots of Republicans in this area wanted Johnson instead.
Larry Rhoden made the mistake of lining up with Kristi Noem, who many women dislike. Yes, it’s hard to find a female Republican around here who will vote for him because of her.
The other two running might as well drop out now and save some money.
Mr. Epp, a self-professed straight lawyer from Harrisburg, has math that is difficult to dispute. grudznick always runs Mr. Epp’s math through a napkin analysis with a pencil and if there are questions my granddaughter uses her computer powers to really dig deep.
Mr. Dusty’s problem with the center of data is one thing. Him having lackeys in the legislatures do his dirty work is another. The Real Republicans are not going to like a fellow who stands back in the shadows and lets ladies do his dirty work. Like grudznick’s old friend BIll always said…just sayin….