Donald Trump is, in the most generous interpretation, exaggerating when he claims to have delivered “the greatest economy in the history of our country“:
Trump benefited from the continuation of trends that had been in place under the Obama recovery.
“While Trump can take some credit, I see it like the relief pitcher who comes in during the 9th inning with a seven-run lead, then boasts about winning the game,” said Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. “It’s fine to get some credit for holding the lead, but this is much more an Obama story than a Trump story.”
Growth in the nation’s gross domestic product — probably the single most important statistic used to gauge the overall strength of the economy — has been so-so on Trump’s watch. It didn’t reach his pledge of 4% growth a year, earning it a Promise Broken [Louis Jacobson, “Donald Trump’s Dubious Statement About Presiding over ‘the Greatest Economy’ in History,” Politifact, 2020.10.01].
And of course, right now, Trump is presiding over a labor market that is suffering more than it did during the Great Recession a decade-plus ago:
With September’s hiring gain, the economy has recovered only slightly more than half the 22 million jobs that were wiped out by the viral pandemic. The roughly 10 million jobs that remain lost exceed the number that the nation shed during the entire 2008-2009 Great Recession [“U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.9%, Hiring Slows Again,” AP via Marketplace, 2020.10.02].
Trump’s failure to control the spread of coronavirus has led to a total loss of the meager gain in labor force participation rate that started in September 2015. In September, that participation rate was down to 61.4%, compared to a lows of 66.5% during the 2001 recession and 65.6% during the 2008–2009 recession. The Trump recession has disproportionately affected women’s work and earning power, driving women away from wages at a time when we intensely need the jobs they usually do:
One of the disturbing signs in today’s jobs report was the downtick in the labor force participation rate. Basically, it means fewer people are out there even looking for work right now.
It’s a statistic with a huge gender gap: Four times more women than men dropped out of the labor force last month. That continues a trend we’ve seen since the start of the pandemic. And it’s an issue that will have long-term ramifications for the economy.
Women disproportionately hold the types of jobs that have been lost, during the pandemic, said economics professor Betsey Stevenson at the University of Michigan.
“There’s the caring jobs. The socializing jobs. The jobs where we need to interact with other people,” she said [Justin Ho, “The Covid Recession Is Driving More Women Than Men from the Job Market,” Marketplace, 2020.10.02].
Women are part of the lower leg of the K-shaped “recovery”, as the Trump class sits pretty while the working class gets hammered by declines in service businesses and the risks of manning their cashier stands:
More well-off groups have largely recovered and were less likely to lose their jobs and income in the first place. The stock market is booming, but only a little more than half of Americans own any equities and, according to CNN, the wealthiest 10 percent of households own 87 percent of stocks and mutual funds. Meanwhile, poorer Americans—more likely to work jobs you can’t do from home, in industries disrupted by the virus or the lockdowns—are seeing none of those market gains. We were already living in two Americas, but now we’re experiencing two economies and two recessions. That’s on top of two pandemics, where these same groups are also more likely to contract the virus and die from it [Jack Holmes, “Trump Is in Trouble for a Lot of Reasons, But the K-Shaped Recovery Is a Big One,” Esquire, 2020.10.01].
Things always look peachy when you sit atop piles of cash. But as usual, Trump’s inability to see beyond himself prevents him from understanding the big picture of an economy in trouble that requires hard work and vigorous policy responses, not empty superlatives and wishful thinking.
When was the last time the economy served the interests of the working class? Probably the 1970’s?
A bipartisan neoliberal project began in the 1970’s. It reduced the influence of labor unions and centered the interests of the capitalist class. Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama all promoted the interests of the transnational capitalist class. They all promoted Free Trade agreements that allowed capital to flow overseas to take advantage of cheap labor and lax environmental standards.
Today, only 10% of Americans belong to a union. Most members of the working class are on their own fighting for their material survival.
Hopefully, Biden can improve conditions for the working class. But I doubt it. Democrats had complete control of the legislative process from 2009-2011. Yet, Obama and Biden failed to pass an increase in the federal minimum wage. Obama and Biden aided the banks instead of the workers. Look for more of the same in 2021.
Trump is the symptom of a much larger problem. We need to remove him from office and then address the neoliberal economic system that is the root of our troubles. That is going to require class consciousness and solidarity among the working class. We need more Fred Hampton. We need more Mother Jones.
They did that little ACA/Obamacare in the 111th congress. Pretty darn important or as Joe said “A big______ing deal”, which it still is. I think that legislation has provided more for the working class than anything else since the New Deal.
Democrats had complete control of the legislative process from 2009-2011
No they didn’t. The senate was filibuster proof for approx 4 months of the first 2 years of Obama’s first term.
As for women, several vulnerable wingnut women sinators are coming out in opposition to repealing the ACA. Ivanna Kuturnutzov, McSally, Collins of Maine, Murkowski of Alaska and at least two alleged men wingnuts are afraid of homestate voters if the ACA is repealed.
I agree with much of Jason’s analysis, but it’s incomplete. Unions were pretty conservative institutions, actually. Many were racist back then, and there was bad leadership. They didn’t organize and engage with the grassroots, especially the younger guys and, increasingly, gals. As a boomer, the unions were seen more as our fathers’ institutions that didn’t want to modernize. For one, the 70s saw a big boom in college students and white collar workers, which were not unionized, and which unions did little to unionize.
As unions leaked membership, their political power waned. Democratic pols reached out to the more liberal folks in the business community. Not surprising, really.
I love the labor movement and was a proud member of a teachers union for three years during the 1970s, but the unions missed the boat, too.
Ozy has a brief comment on the trump Recession.
________________________________
Coming Up: The Recovery Slows to a Crawl
The recovery may not be measured in months. “We will be counting the employment recovery in years,” suggested a University of Tennessee economist, after seeing Friday’s unemployment report. U.S. jobs rose by 661,000 in September, according to the Labor Department. That’s slightly better than some had predicted, but it still leaves unemployment at 7.9 percent and represents a much slower job growth than during the summer months. Meanwhile, investors, unsettled by the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis, sent stocks down initially, with more volatility expected through Election Day.
Donald is right that many union leaders made mistakes than weakened their ability to fight for better wages and better working conditions. But that is the tip of the iceberg.
According to Kurt Andersen’s new book, “Evil Geniuses” outside conservative forces played a major role in ending union influence during the 1970’s and 1980’s, especially after Reagan busted the air traffic controllers union strike in 1981. Meanwhile, conservatives pushed legislation to get around existing laws preventing employers from punishing union members for engaging in union activities, such as strikes.
These new laws permitted companies to hire and retain non-union workers during strikes, but only required that a company take former union employees back after the strike ended if their former jobs were no longer filled by the non-union labor. In effect, strikers couldn’t be fired for striking but lost their jobs anyway, a distinction without a difference. Add to that the many States’ euphemistically labeled “right to work” legislation and unions were fatally wounded.
“Evil Geniuses” is a powerful explanation of how we ended up with a Trumpist America. Andersen’s earlier book “Fantasyland” describes the historical development of political and economic gaslighting, another characteristic of today’s Trumpist world. Both books are well worth reading and help us understand how and why many boomers saw “unions . . . more as our fathers’ institutions that didn’t want to modernize.” Spoiler alert – conservative marketing techniques played the controlling role in forming irrational anti-union sentiment.
From Axios:
__________________________
Some top GOP operatives, privy to data from swing states, tell me that this week’s chaotic presidential debate had a calamitous effect on Republican chances in tight Senate races.
“The bottom is falling out everywhere,” said a longtime Republican insider.
More grim economic news, this from Axios:
__________________________
‘The economy remains nearly 11 million jobs below its levels from February,” the N.Y. Times’ Jim Tankersley and Alan Rappeport report.
Why it matters: “Wall Street analysts and independent economists warned that [yesterday’s] numbers, which fell below expectations, were a sign that the economy could face a slow and painful march back to pre-pandemic levels without more help from Washington.”
CNBC headline: “Massively concerning’ jobs report sends a signal that the economic recovery could be fading.”
That air traffic controller strike played right into the corrupt conservative mindset as the trap it was. It was brilliantly played by the actor and it’s been downhill since.
As Ms. Debbo notes “painful march back to pre-pandemic levels without more help from Washington.”, indeed, without socialist programs for farmers and all workers, we’re sunk. Look no further than the airlines and even Mickey Mouse, we’re screwed if the printing press doesn’t get to work.
Yes, they are the “stupid party”.
““There was a panic before this started, but now we’re sort of the stupid party,” said Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America. “Candidates are being forced to defend themselves every day on whether they agree with this or that, in terms of what the president did on the virus.”
“The president and the people around him flouted the rules,” said Republican strategist Michael Steel, who was an aide to former House Speaker John Boehner.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-virus-spreads-across-gop-ranks-some-republicans-say-party-will-pay-price-for-stupid-approach/2020/10/03/12e1c484-0585-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html
The Hill
@thehill
President Trump intends to appoint prominent conservative activist Tom Fitton to an oversight agency that would grant him the power to unseat judges in Washington, DC’s judiciary.
Steve Vladeck
@steve_vladeck
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11h
I look forward to the President’s enablers explaining why it was totally appropriate for him to (1) hide his positive test for 36+ hours; and (2) travel to a fundraiser—to say nothing of not masking or social distancing—while he knew that he was both positive and symptomatic.
I can only speak to the government unions which were required by law to afford all non-paying bargaining unit members the same protections as the dues paying members. Management being what they are ,found this to be a great way to break the union treasury and then the union fails.
Moar bad news for women working for drumpf……
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/23/women-trumps-white-house-earn-69-cents-every-1-male-staff/5826935002/
drumpf’s gender pay gap is wider than normal. He rilly respects him some women, don’t he?
Tom Fitton is head of Judicial Watch with all the baggage that carries.
When the difference between the cost of living varies so widely by zip code and the disparity of earning between the genders is so prevalent it amazes me that congress can be so indifferent to the needs of their constituents. While both parties share the blame for gridlock the grand ole party of political puppets has the most important majority’s and their allegiance to party far exceeds their allegiance to country, so like a flock of sheep they follow the apprentice prez into the abyss. Gender equality, racial equality, and parity in taxation should be priority one. They have already cheated the people out of one scotus appointment when is enough going to be enough? The clown that spent 70,000.oo at the beauty parlor and then has the gall to write it off his taxes, the same coward that dodged the draft is now the commander and cheat. Have you ever wondered why someone who claims to be a germophobe refused to protect themselves from a deadly virus?
Reporting on the economic harm to most MUST also include the cash grab of the billionaire class. We are not all in this together; there has been a YUGE redistribution of wealth to the .1%. That has been both a dirt redistribution of wealth and indirect redistribution through diminished social safety net/services.
All of that is a direct result to POLICY – not some fantastical whims of economics.
Headline “THE COVID ECONOMY
‘Doomed to fail’: Why a $4
trillion bailout couldn’t revive
the American economy
An avalanche of U.S. grants and loans helped the wealthy and companies
that laid off workers. Individuals received about one-fifth of the aid.” Washington Post 10.5.20
One of these days, the proletariat will awaken to see that all they think they have is nothing but wishful thinking. There is no there there without controlling the trump virus, simple as that. As long as there is a republican with any kind of control, that is unlikely to happen. Get on out there and vote early. Vote Blue, that’s who.
Mike Livingston, you are incorrect when you say, “both parties share the blame for gridlock.” The Democratic House has been doing its job, holding hearings, committee meetings, writing and debating legislation. It’s Moscow Mitch and his GOP cohort who are sitting on the bills, not even addressing them.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell agrees that the “nascent” recovery is leaving women and minorities behind: