Twelve days ago, when Governor Kristi Noem said “up to 30 percent of our population could get sick” with coronavirus, I calculated from CDC figures that our Governor was projecting that 32,000 South Dakotans would end up in the hospital with covid-19 and 2,700 of us would die from this new disease. With yesterday’s official count of seventeen hospitalized and three dead (ugh: make that four), we’re a long way from that grim count.
But yesterday Governor Noem revised her forecast for the worse:
Noem upped her predictions of how many of South Dakota’s nearly 900,000 residents will contract the disease, saying during a news conference at the Capitol that anywhere from 30% to 70% of them might.
The state is preparing for as many as 5,000 hospitalizations when the disease is expected to peak in South Dakota in mid-June, the Republican governor said [Stephen Groves, “Noem: Up to 70% of South Dakota May get the Coronavirus,” AP, 2020.04.03].
By my March 23 numbers, that’s 74,000 South Dakotans going to the hospital, 17,800 needing intensive care, and 6,400 dying. Governor Noem won’t speak such numbers, but her Health Secretary offered her own fatality range:
When reporters asked what the state projects its death toll from the virus will be, Noem declined to give a specific number but referred to Secretary of Health Kim Malsam-Rysdon’s estimates that the death rate could range from 0.5% to 3%. With those figures, the number of deaths would be between roughly 1,325, at 0.5% of a 30% infection rate, and 18,000, at 3% of a 70% infection rate [Groves, 2020.04.03].
In my March 23 post, I counted 4,200 hospital beds in the state. Secretary Malsam-Rysdon said South Dakota’s hospitals can expand capacity to 4,400, and the Governor is having the National Guard build two 100-bed temporary hospitals, one in Sioux Falls, one in Rapid City. Those expansions on Noem’s own count still leaves us 400 beds short of what we’ll need just for peak coronavirus patients, never mind folks otherwise sick or injured or great with child. Somebody in the Governor’s office had better be calling the colleges, the motels, and owners of empty buildings to arrange for more temporary hospital space (like South Korea did, with live-saving results).
Of course, extra hospital beds aren’t much good if we don’t get the gear we need:
Noem said the state’s hospitals would also need 1,300 ventilators. They currently have 525 [Groves, 2020.04.03].
Now maybe the coldest among us can look at the developing science that says ventilators aren’t saving that many covid-19 patients anyway, that the coronavirus does so much damage to the lungs that ventilators can’t bring many patients back. But let’s operate under the assumption that, even if a certain device or medicine only saves a third of the patients using it, we should still try to have enough for every patient.
If you think voting to shut down the bars and playgrounds is hard, think about deciding which one of three patients in the ICU gets a ventilator. Under the infection projection and ventilator count given yesterday, there’s no way around rationing… and making rationing work requires enforcement from the top:
However, New York State does have a protocol for allocating ventilators during a pandemic. The 2015 guidelines were developed by a state bioethics task force over more than a decade, and lay out detailed protocols for saving the maximum number of lives by assessing how likely every patient is to benefit from ventilator therapy.
The authors of the guidelines noted that the protocols are most effective when the governor or state health commissioner formally directs hospitals to follow them [Martin Kaste and Rebecca Hersher, “Ventilator Shortages Loom as States Ponder Rules for Rationing,” NPR: Shots, 2020.04.03].
Even as she more than doubles her own public projection of how many South Dakotans may catch coronavirus, Governor Noem refuses to order a statewide close-the-bars-and-stay-home order. One would think that her “commonsense conservative values” would incline her to take a less painful action to avoid having to make a more painful action. Telling 882,000 people they can’t go to the bar or the office takes away a lot of liberty. But pulling the ventilator out of one gasping woman’s throat and placing it in another patient who checks a couple more positive boxes on the rationing framework—and multiplying that choice by a thousand, or ten thousand—takes away liberty and your soul.
If common sense were commonplace, we wouldn’t need a statewide shutdown order. People would look at the prospect of coronavirus killing 18,000 of their neighbors—or just one of their children—and stay the heck away from each other for the rest of the year. But just like with anti-vaxxers, it only takes a small minority of selfish knuckleheads to moot the sacrifices made by the conscientious and well-informed majority.
Ordering bars and other businesses to shut down and telling healthy individuals not to travel around town and visit their friends and neighbors is not an easy decision. Issuing a statewide shutdown will anger some and inconvenience all, which politicians usually try to avoid. But telling everyone to stay home is good policy… and it’s a lot easier decision than having to decide who gets a ventilator or a hospital bed and who’s left in the lobby to die.
Conservatism says shut the state down now so government doesn’t have to make more dire decisions later.
Why are we last in everything?
It’s because of the DOPE in Pierre.
Look at the facts.
Look at the rest of the country.
Look in the mirror.
Close the damn state down now.
Rationing ventilators? Are these the Death Panels I was warned about?
If only the state had some sort of leadership — say, a governor and a legislature — who could actually lead and help prevent ventilator Death Panels.
I know, I know, it’s unfair to expect more of our current leaders. They’re not in Pierre to lead; they’re just in office for the nepotism and the grifting.
The concept of “commonsense” is interesting. In some societies, commonsense is assumed to be an innate attribute that is common to each individual. In others it is considered to be an emergent property of a community of people. Our different understandings of commonsense are the problem here.
In China anyone over 30, who was 13 at the time of the SARS outbreak, has an understanding of what is required to deal with a pandemic. When you go through something horrific at an age when you are aware you understand what needs to be done. You don’t question it when scientists and leaders lock down a province and request people to self-quarantine. In the USA, we don’t have that understanding, because we haven’t dealt with the horror yet. What our kids have learned, which China’s kids haven’t, is how to shelter in place during an active shooter event.
Some of us are old enough to remember the polio scares during the late 40s and 50s. Although I was in elementary school in the late 50s I remember the horror that pictures of kids in iron lungs instilled. None of us liked shots, but we lined up for shots and sugar cubes with polio vaccines because we didn’t want to end up in one of those contraptions. None of us or our parents were pro- or anti-vaxers. We were anti-iron lung.
There is no individual commonsense in instances like a pandemic that you haven’t faced in ages. We look to scientists and leaders to forge a common understanding of what we need to do. When leaders fail, so does commonsense. We have a failure of leadership in South Dakota, in Wisconsin and the nation, a trifecta of stupidity.
You know of Trump’s and Noem’s failure. In my state Republican legislators seem willing to sacrifice both democracy and the people’s health because they have found that their path to power requires low turnout elections, and refuse to change election dates or have extended mail-in balloting. Luckily, a federal judge ruled that we get another week to send in ballots. That will provide a bit more time for the avalanche of mail-in ballots to be sent out and returned.
One thing to be learned from this is that Republicans can’t be counted on to lead in a way that is protective of health and our way of life. Sure, some Republicans are doing a good job, but the commonsense and leadership failures seem to be most evident among the Republicans.
Evidently Kristi’s comment:” My responsibility is to respect the rights of the people who elected me” includes the right to infect others.
Just when one wants the conservative repubs to ACT conservatively . . . they act more like spring breakers on a Florida beach.
By increasing the numbers, it benefits her politically the same as trump is doing.If they reach the magic number, they will declare victory in the projections, or if they fall way short of the projections, the victory parade will be on how many lives were saved. Its an ugly political maneuver that uses peoples lives for their kind of morbid politics. Anything to win!
CoronaKristi just bit into something she can’t unbite. First, where the hell did she come up with that 70 percent nonsense? Experts have kept that down to 30 percent if strategies to contain the disease are mildly successful. As others are indicating, if it’s close to 70 percent then the state should react accordingly with severe shut down/stay home laws. CoronaKristi doesn’t seem impressed by the prospect, which makes you wonder why. Does she hate people generally? Is she inherently lazy and just bored with the job? Why the hell did she run for Govornor anyway?
Time for CoronaKristi to go home.
It is unconscionable that Klueless Kristi has not shut down South Dakota. She’s trading her comfort for citizens’ lives. It’s easier for her to pass the buck than take a stand.
Klueless Kristi is deliberately failing South Dakotans and they’re paying with their lives.
This is hillary-ous and oh, so true….https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/watch-the-daily-show-releases-devastating-video-of-fox-news-and-republicans-downplaying-covid-19-crisis/
I tried to Share this to my page, and couldn’t get it done.
Infect others, shoot others… these truths we hold dear, Ray.
Linda, thanks for the effort! I’m not sure why your page would take the link. If in doubt, try copying this link and pasting it directly to your page:
https://dakotafreepress.com/2020/04/04/could-statewide-lockdown-avert-70-infection-and-healthcare-rationing/
I’ve never been able to “share” a DFP posting to FB. I get to the page where you can comment, then copy the URL and paste it into my FB comments box. Then you get a big DFP logo to let the world know you read SoDak’s only worthwhile blog.
Why hasn’t Noem sent ventilators and supplies to the COVID19 hotspots? Since, obviously, South Dakota doesn’t need them because SD has no shelter at home directive. If South Dakota thinks it’s important to run a Macy’s New Years Parade float . . . then why isn’t South Dakota helping New York or another COVID19 hotspot?
South Dakota’s projections predict that 250,000 to 600,000 may become infected. That translates to tens of thousands hospitalized and thousands dead. It’s ridiculous to purse “herd immunity”.
Covid19
We’re on it.
Want to kick CoronaKristi to the curb?
Get Kevin Weiland to announce he’s going to remove her as the Democrat candidate for Governor.
The Doctor vs. the dumb Trump hack. (Watch the Iowa Senate race.)
I am speaking as a South Dakotan “stranded” in Texas due to the Coronavirus. We are on “Stay at Home” orders made by a County Judge in Hidalgo County, and also made by judges in the surrounding counties of deep south Texas. The order includes a curfew from 10pm to 5 am with check points set up by Law Enforcement to monitor where people are going. We have been informed that all non-essential services are to be suspended and the only reason to be away from your home is to go get food (grocery stores and restaurant take-out), the pharmacy, or an emergency, ie ER at a hospital. We are able to go outside for exercise (we walk every morning) but to keep 6 feet away from other people. As of last night wearing a face covering while in public was mandated by a number of the communities here. As I observe, we are ahead of SD on “flattening the curve” and the officals here are taking all of this very seriously. There are over 1 million people in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas and the officials are doing all that they are able to do to keep the people safe. We as Winter Texans appreciate their efforts and have been following all the recommendations as we are the ones who are at greatest risk. A number of Winter Texans from the midwest have also chosen to stay here for the “duration”, whatever that will be, as it would be very risky to travel home through all the virus filled areas. Our friends up north don’t seem to understand the magnitude of all of this and think that life is going to go on as usual. We are safe, we are well and hope to be able to come home at some point, but not until it is safe to do so as we would not only risk our lives, but the lives of others. My husband and I are old enough to remember the polio scare of the 1940’s and 50’s. As Hidalgo county has found, the large family units here are at higher risk of spreading this virus and it appears Huron, SD has experienced the same problem as the virus was spread among members of an extended family. You have to remember, you are “free”, but “not free” to expose others to this diease.
Dumb TRUMP has to go. Kristie is a puppet of Trump & PUTIN! BLUE WAVE 2020!
Last updated: April 05, 2020, 16:00 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
322,995
Deaths:
9,149
9 states don’t have lockdowns. 8 are led? by wingnuts.
Exactly mike. Sing the truth
Republicans=Death
Democrats=Life
BLUE WAVE 2020!
Deaths:
9,325
Last updated: April 05, 2020, 19:34 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
331,285
Deaths:
9,479
drumpf body count.
Beijing is re-starting after nearly 3 months of shutdown. People in China knew what to do before the government came out and ordered a shutdown. They were all self-isolating before that order. The Chinese went through this before with SARS. Everyone over 30 now was 13 during SARS, and they knew the drill. The younger folks picked it up quickly, because they had heard about it from their parents. The Chinese know how to contain an outbreak, though they botched the initial phases. They botched it in exactly the way Trump botched it: leaders trying to minimize the problem. Noem is making the same mistake.
Things China does that we don’t. They have neighborhood cadres who follow where positive cases are. They separate positive cases and place them in isolation until they are healthy or require hospitalization. Everyone can find out where positive cases resided, so that if you were in the area, you can be sure to be extra vigilant about your health and activities. Everyone in isolation must self-report temperatures. Grocery customers are limited to certain numbers, and must check temperatures of customers and write them down. If someone later becomes positive, the customers who were in the store that day have to report temperatures. The neighborhood cadres write down who comes into and exits from the neighborhood, so if someone is positive, they can trace where that person went and who else may need to be screened.
My daughter said the neighborhood cadres are the lowest level of the local Communist Party apparatus. That sounds scary, but she has found them to be more public spirited individuals than anything, like our old Ward bosses or current neighborhood associations.
Where I live has good neighborhood associations, but they are not prepared or able to do this kind of detailed work.
The stores and restaurants have re-opened in Beijing, but there are strict occupancy limits. My daughter estimates that 50 percent of the entrepreneurs haven’t returned to business, at least yet, and she assumes they are casualties of the shutdown. Most of them are the smaller businesses. The larger, corporate chains survived. I’m not sure if China had an economic bailout mechanism. That’s one questions I forgot to ask my daughter.
From today’s Political Wire
Flashback Quote of the Year
April 5, 2020 at 3:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments
“We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here… and isn’t it refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama.”
— Trump campaign press secretary Kayleigh McEnamy, on Fox News on February 25, 2020.
Seattle non-profit has filed the first of what I hope turns out to be trillions of lawsuits against Fake Noize for publicly espousing knowingly false info about corona virus.
In addition to the dairy farmers dumping milk, and the letter 140 senators and representatives wrote to, “Stop yer Whining” AG SEC Sonny Perdue: now the markets anticipate the price of oil and its demand destruction will take corn prices to their lowest level in more than a decade.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/corn-prices-could-drop-to-lowest-levels-in-more-than-a-decade-51585908001?mod=past_editions
Noem and her trumpy pals Hooverish approach to this COVID19 & economic crisis is inadequate.
MFI – Fox News being a separate network allows it to skirt regulations on “truth.”
The FCC does have regulations regarding the distribution of false information, but again, this only applies to over-the-air programs on networks such as ABC, CBS, NBC, or Fox Broadcasting (but not the Fox News Channel). Furthermore, the offense would have to be pretty egregious and well-documented in order for the FCC to step in. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fox-news-entertainment-switch/
FOX also skirted this once before in the UK because the programs like Hanity and Tucker Carlson Tonight are not News broadcasts.
Thanks, O.