As bad as Donald Trump has made things for South Dakota agriculture, our farmers and ranchers are actually suffering less than their colleagues everywhere else in Trumpistan. The USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasting that U.S. farms will suffer 13% to 30% decreases in net income compared to 2017:
And that estimate came before Trump announced today that he’s quintupling the amount of Chinese imports on which he is raising taxes. Wow—blocking free trade and raising taxes—Donald Trump appears to epitomize the Republican In Name Only.
Some of that income loss in South Dakota will come from bumper corn and soybean crops. But the paradoxical losses cause by high productivity only make more acute the pain caused loss of access to the world’s biggest potential ag buyer, motivated not by any sensible economic theory or experience but merely the reckless ego of an unqualified and ignorant occupant of the White House.
Drumpf says trade wars are easy to win, so what is he waiting for? Or was he just blowing smoke because he has no clews what he got us into?
This one is gonna leave a mark though Cory. If trump really wants to win a trade war, then he should make us like China. Seriously. If we are going to protect producers, then they should be nationalized just like China does it. Nationalize our grid and rebuild it. Same with our rail and our energy, all transportation. If we are gonna do it, then do it biggly or not at all.
Ag producers should get a guaranteed price for their crops and products. Manufacturers should be given the price to make a small profit while making sure that workers are working and making some money to spend on the economy they are building. Pure socialism was promised by trump and Bannon with a trillions to be spent on infrastructure projects not just a piddly 12 billion for a Bribe, I mean trillions as promised.
If we do not make ourselves Chinese, then we will fail. Simple as that.
Know why Wall Street is feeling no pain? They are using the money that was to hire and retool as buy back for their stock. This inflates the company to enrich the bosses. Pretty slick deal. Farmers, don’t you wish you had that negative 15% into a positive 1000% by simply buying back your beans and corn. You could then take that to the Bank of Cyprus to hide it off shore.
““For the first time in 10 years, buybacks are garnering the largest share of cash spending by S&P 500 firms,” writes chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin. “Capital spending has typically represented the largest single use of cash by corporations, a position it has held for 19 of the past 20 years.”” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/buyback-binge-that-s-besting-capex-pays-off-big-in-u-s-stocks
In the end, and it is coming sooner than later, we are gonna have to bail them out again. This time though ag producers, you’re gonna have to do it 20% light. Are you up for that? Have you had Enough yet? Vote Democratic to save your farm.
Woodward’s book, “Fear,” provides the backstory on this and those who are pushing it.
Pootie’s Puppet is in the midst of a toddler tantrum against Xi.
I heard a Trump appointee interviewed at the white house this morning about the trade war. I wish I had caught the guy’s name. The reporter asked if the administration would do like Winston Churchill in WWII and say there is going to be a lot of pain on the way to victory in the trade war. The official denied there is any pain at all, saying “this pain you are imagining.” So there you have it, farmers. The white house says you are just imagining the pain the trade war is causing.
Attn Farmers … You’re gonna lose a lot of profits but it’s ok because it’s not about you farmers. ““China has openly stated that they are actively trying to impact and change our election by attacking our farmers, ranchers and industrial workers because of their loyalty to me,” the president said. BOHICA ag-land …
Won’t the real pain here be felt by the implement dealers at the end of harvest? The farmers I know minimize their “income” (so as to pay the least possible taxes) by purchasing equipment. If crops bring less, I would think farmer actual income (as defined on their federal income tax forms) will not differ that much — if at all, but the amount they will have available to spend will be the rub.
Am I way off here?
Right O. There’s going to a lot more pain than is predicted. At first the Chinese people were siding with Trump. Now the Chinese people have determined en masse that he’s an oppressive bully and the sentiment of a billion Chinese citizens is to dig in their heels and never give in. New tariffs today signal higher prices for things we all use. Needless inflation from a self- inflated bully.
Why do we call this a tariff? I see it as a tax on consumers. The government taxes the incoming product, thus driving up the retail price which the consumer pays the higher price which is taxed again at the higher price. Only the government gains while the consumer loses. Makes about as much sense as calling taxes user fees. Political bulls**t.
If we are going to be a capitalist country, then find a way to compete and stop whining. There’s nothing fair about capitalism, just dog eat dog. No tariffs on anything either direction.
CIB vet, doesn’t that just put all trade in a race to the bottom? The country that can do the best job of exploitation of its environment, workers, safety wins because it is the cheapest. My shoes capture the market because the margin on 5-year old employees is WAY “better” than a living wage when it comes to the bottom line.
Wilbur Ross says you all will not even notice the tariffs imposed. All of these losses are not to be considered because they are not really losses they are just tariffs. Try to keep up. I know I have and it still somehow evades me.
But o, Pootiepublicans don’t want a “real capitalist” economy. They want crony capitalism, with them as the Cronies. They want a system that makes them immensely wealthy, and screw the peasants. Feudalism, and Pootiepublicans will be the lords of the manors.
To punish China, Trump is making their food more expensive. Someday, China will be in a position to do the same to us. (Drought, crop disease, dust bowls etc. happen to every country eventually. That’s when we rely on allies that can lend us a hand until our agriculture regains production capability.) Making an enemy of a wealthy country that we may need (as a friend) is poor governing.
Wall Street giggles at your pain all the way to the bank. Hang on gang, looks like deja vu all over again.
“Securities industry pretax profits grew by
42 percent in 2017 on higher revenue from
core activities. That momentum has carried
into 2018, with profits rising by 11 percent
during the first half of 2018.
The securities industry has the highest
average salary of any major industry in New
York City. Despite its small size (less than
5 percent of private sector employment), the
industry accounts for more than one-fifth of all
private sector wages paid in the City.
Bonuses made up 40 percent of securities
industry wages in 2017, a much larger share
than in any other industry. Bonuses are likely
to increase in 2018 for the third consecutive
year based on compensation and profitability
trends in the first half of the year, although it is
too early to predict with certainty.” https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/rpt6-2019.pdf
“New York City’s average securities industry salary, including bonuses, grew by 13 percent to $422,500 in 2017, according to the Office of the New York State Comptroller.
The average salary is the highest since the Great Recession in 2008, and higher than in any other major industry. Bonuses were also the highest they have been in a decade after adjusting for inflation, with the average bonus paid to industry employees in New York City growing by 17 percent in 2017 to $184,220.
In 2017, pretax profits in the securities industry totaled $24.5 billion, the highest level since 2010, and profits totaled $13.7 billion in the first half of 2018, also the highest level since 2010.”
So there ya go, what you all lost, they all gained. Tax cuts were just to buy back stock to get more bonus money as well. Boys, we have been hoodwinked.
Have you had enough yet? Vote Democratic!
O, in reply to your question of a race to the bottom, I would disagree. We tried that in the auto industry during the 70’s and 80’s. As I recall the Asian and European auto markets smoked the US auto markets and even today we are playing catch up but at least competitive. When an inferior product is built and sold, someone, somewhere will step in and produce a better product to take its place. That’s capitalism no matter what country produces the best product at the best price. If we can’t do that, we are just marking time.(movement without moving)
Also taxing (tariffs) incoming products, increasing the retail and tax that you pay and then taking the tax collected to subsidize others trying to sell their products as exports because they voted for you———–I’ll let you judge.
CIB vet, remember those American cars from the 70’s and 80’s? What a bunch of clunkers, all of them. Barely get 40,000 miles and then you start leaving parts along the roads. The Asian small pickups came into being and they were appreciated very much, still are. Fortunately, we copied them or got bought out by them as was the case of them all except Ford. In Canada right now, they import the parts from the United States and export the built vehicles pretty much as a wash in trade.
Willie Nelson is gonna do and be at the Farm Aid for this year again. This time in Connecticut https://www.farmaid.org/blog/farm-aid-2018-lineup/ Willie loves him some farmers and so do the other two that have been there for years, Neal Young and John Mellencamp.
Drumpf lies some more- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-on-china-who-pays-tariffs-fact-check-billions-statement/
Drumpf has zero clews about what he is doing and will not listen to anyone that does. Thankx wingnuts!
CIB Vet, “When an inferior product is built and sold, someone, somewhere will step in and produce a better product to take its place.”
That’s the core of the issue – your focus is on the product; my focus is on the process. Both China and the US can make a quality car, but if China is allowed to pay pennies a day for a labor force (making US workers “uncompetitive”) and flout to costs of environmental protection regulations (making the US manufacturing process “uncompetitive”) then it has become a race to the bottom for the workforce and environment.
Ford at least knew that he had to pay a good wage to his workers (and give them time off) so that they could buy (and enjoy) his cars that they produced. I think that simple tenant has been lost as wages continue to drop and the middle class dries up in the US. The corporate profit margin has forced out the consumer from the marketplace.
I seem to remember that the population in the United States is about 330 million folks with roughly half being in the middle class or about 160 million, give or take.
“Over the past several decades, China’s economic development has lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty and resulted in a burgeoning middle class. Middle class households typically have enough income to satisfy their primary needs – food, clothing, and shelter – with some disposable income left over for additional desired consumption and savings. In 2002, China’s middle class was only four percent of its population. A decade later this number had climbed to 31 percent, constituting over 420 million people. China’s growing middle class presents an array of new economic opportunities, but also poses significant political and demographic challenges.” https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/
I don’t think that the Chinese are getting pennies a day for their work any more than we are here. Here, we use a lot of undocumented labor as well as prison labor to work for those pennies a day. Also here, in order to make a living and a simple one at that, you must work two to three jobs to make it.
There is a reason for wage drop…the loss of unions to keep up. The corporate margin is doing just swell. Take a look at the now shrinking Wall Street and how those corporations are juicing the numbers by buying back their stock from the tax scam of NOem and company.
“As the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 25000 and other stock market indexes continue rising to new highs, the number of publicly traded U.S. companies keeps shrinking.” In 1996, there were more than 7,400 companies trading on the board, today, less than half still exist. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fewer-listed-companies-is-that-good-or-bad-for-stock-markets-1515100040
o wrote:
I think that simple tenant has been lost as wages continue to drop and the middle class dries up in the US
Worker pay rate hits highest level since 2008
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/31/worker-pay-rate-hits-highest-level-since-2008.html
As if farmers don’t have enough Drumpf caused problems-
https://www.wired.com/story/john-deere-farmers-right-to-repair/
Why should we complain when we get on average about $45,000.00 a year for a 40 hour week… Not even close to that we make here. $45,000.00 a year would make you like the king or something.
“According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the median wage for workers in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2017 was $857 per week or $44,564 per year for a 40-hour workweek. Wages were 0.9 percent higher than at the same date for the previous year.
However, salaries can vary significantly based on both occupation and location. What’s a good salary in one location, may not be somewhere else. For example, people working in professional, management, and related occupations earned an average of $64,220 annually, while those working in service occupations earned an average of $28,028 annually. Jobs in large metropolitan cities, which have a higher cost of living, also tend to pay more than jobs in more rural areas. Read below for more information on average salaries based on factors like gender, education, and more.” https://www.thebalancecareers.com/average-salary-information-for-us-workers-2060808
Of course, in South Dakota, we are no where near that amount, not even close. We are the lowest paid in the nation…even that benchmark Mississippi beats us. Dang it.
https://www.capjournal.com/news/south-dakota-has-lowest-average-wage-in-country/article_78104ef3-8823-573a-a693-e18a8612f5ce.html
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
Buying power remains equal to 1978 bucks. Wage growth nearly the same for the past 5 years. Most of the increase goes to higher wage earners. Some good news.
Krone makes some good implements that you can get parts for when you need them. https://www.krone-northamerica.com/english/services/spare-parts/central-krone-parts-center/
John Deere is not so dear to the heart when they have you over the barrel. There are other ways to get the job done.
great link mfi, and sobering. Like running on a treadmill with no goal other than to survive.
Jason:
“Roughly speaking, the average hourly pay for a member of the United Auto Workers currently ranges from $28 to $38 or so for those hired before September 2007, and between $16 and $20 for workers hired afterward.” https://work.chron.com/average-pay-auto-workers-union-member-24071.html
That is a stark reversal of the previous decades’ trend.
“The real wages and living standards of auto workers rose dramatically. Measured in constant dollars, the 1947 average weekly wage in the industry of $56.51 had doubled by 1960 to $115.21, and tripled by 1970 to $170.07.” John Barnard in “American Vanguard”
Your arbitrary statistic since 2008 is still FAR below the wages of the ’70’s and 80’s when this corporate greed began to fully manifest in public policy.