Trump apologists like responding to concerns about the danger Donald’s tariff threats pose to South Dakota agriculture pointing out that soybean prices are up (NASDAQ shows futures up 4% from where they were last year but down 6% from their March peak).
Experienced ag trader John Tsitrian says we shouldn’t be fooled by short-term numbers. Long-term, Trump’s trade impulses will hurt South Dakota soybean farmers:
Short term, things won’t be so bad. There are other buyers. But long term issues are serious. A study completed last March at Purdue University concludes that the tariffs threatened by China would create global adjustments that will eventually reduce American soybean output by 17% and bring prices down by 5%. Last year’s 250 million bushel soybean crop in South Dakota would take a $100 million hit. As markets move in tandem, corn would also suffer, as would, most likely, wheat. Little wonder that Grant Kimberly of the Iowa Soybean Association last month called the Chinese tariffs “devastating” [John Tsitrian, “Um, Okay, But What Does All of This Have to Do with the Price of Soybeans?” The Constant Commoner, 2018.05.06].
South Dakota’s soybean farmers aren’t the only producers in peril. The National Taxpayers Union got 1,156 economists (including two from South Dakota, DSU’s Dan Talley and Augie’s Robert Wright) to sign an open letter to Trump and Congress issuing the same Smoot-Hawley warning I gave in 2016. The letter recites verbatim the 1930 warning from over a thousand economists that tariffs whack farmers two ways as we plunge into Depression:
The vast majority of farmers, also, would lose through increased duties, and in a double fashion. First, as consumers they would have to pay still higher prices for the products, made of textiles, chemicals, iron, and steel, which they buy. Second, as producers, their ability to sell their products would be further restricted by barriers placed in the way of foreigners who wished to sell goods to us [Paul H. Douglas et al., letter to Congress, 1930.05.05; quoted in Alvin Roth et al., open letter to President Trump and Congress, National Taxpayers Union, 2018.05.03].
Trump’s kamikaze trade policy hits farmers when his USDA is predicting a fourth-straight year of lower inflation-adjusted net farm income, to the lowest level since 2009.
Looking long term into the future is the important situation. Looking back, the difference since March is far more influenced by the China thing than comparing to last year because year to year fluctuations are affected by many things and the change since March is mostly influenced by the China situation.
Pretty much everything Drumpf has done is bad for most Americans.
The big taxcuts for the koch bros has already been removed from vulnerable wingnut pols as a campaign issue for this year’s election.They want to switch to accusing Dems of wanting to impeach Drumpf.
Drumpf makes Bill Clinton look saintly by comparison.
The problem with letter writing to trump is that he does not know how to read, ask his bro Nunes. If you think this is bad, wait until trump and dummies screw up NAFTA.
Farmers are looking less and less like they will get much benefit from the NOem Farm Bill “”Quite simply, respect for farmers doesn’t mean tolerance for wasting taxpayer money on handouts,” read the letter signed by Heritage Action and 13 other groups. “Our organizations are taking farm subsidy reform very seriously in the upcoming farm bill debate.”
Americans for Prosperity and Freedom Partners noted recent big-ticket spending bills the 115th Congress has passed, writing that the “reckless budget deal and the irresponsible omnibus bill” have made it increasingly important for farm and nutrition programs to be reassessed and put on a “fiscally responsible path.””https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/07/conaway-facing-uphill-battle-on-farm-bill-as-conservatives-bash-it-516623
When you ever see “Americans for Prosperity and Freedom Partners”, you know that the fix is in and that the ag producer is gonna be as fleeced as his sheep by these deep pocketed grifters.
Cory,
My experts disagree with your experts.
I guess we will see which experts were right.
I’ll just say I wouldn’t bet on the college profs, or the biased soybean trade official or “economists”.
Monopolists win no matter what. Farmers have to pay Monsanto for the rights to plant their beans. Pretty slick way of going back to the “Gilded Age”, and we even have our own Tea Pot Dome scandal brewing with trump’s boy Carl Ichan. Ask any farmer whey they are getting squeezed on the controlled price for soybeans and corn? Ask any rancher why the price for their cattle always seems to be like the cost of gasoline in Rapid City, South Dakota, always the same from gas station to gas station when they rise and fall at the same time.