Bob Mercer offers his observations on who’s shining in South Dakota’s race for Governor. Mercer leans a little toward Jackley for driving the conversation with policy initiatives. He puts Noem at the back on organization:
Jackley and Senate Democratic leader Billie Sutton shined. The two men officially launched campaigns last year with big events.
Noem waited until the past few days.
She started at Kones Korner gunshop Monday. That’s where she announced her first run for the U.S. House eight years ago.
So give her points for going home again. But there wasn’t much splash, because there wasn’t much notice.
She did it in the middle of the worst weather since Atlas stormed across South Dakota [Bob Mercer, “Who Shines Most in Race for Governor?” Pierre Capital Journal, 2018.02.23].
One could argue that we can’t blame Noem for snow… but we can also credit Sutton and Jackley for choosing to stage their launches not in the middle of winter.
Mercer reminds us that all three candidates are anti-abortion radicals (o.k., that’s my word) who are out of step with the the law of the land and the opinion of the South Dakota majority:
All three oppose Roe v. Wade that legalized abortion nationally. That puts them in sync with the Legislature.
South Dakota voters twice spoke in favor of a woman’s right to an abortion a decade ago. All three are out of sync with those majorities [Mercer, 2018.02.23].
Mercer doesn’t play the numbers, but FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich does. In a post on 18 governorships that Democrats could flip this year, Rakich cites three analyses—The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections—that include South Dakota in “only eight GOP-held governorships [that] are completely safe in 2018.”
If Rakich is right, then the primary decides our governor… and Mercer’s observations reinforce my sense that, right now, Jackley is ahead, closer to 60% than 50%. (The South Dakota Chamber of Commerce gives Jackley an even bigger edge.)
I don’t think Jackley is ahead of Noem right now. He’s lucky if he’s close to 45/45 with her with Lora Hubbel picking up the other 10% (just kidding about the Hubbel part). Noem has better political instincts than Jackley. I do think that Jackley would make a better governor than Noem, but not as good as Sutton. If Noem loses I question whether she will even come back to South Dakota to work. My guess is that she’s a dedicated Washington DC resident just like Daschle was by the time he ran his last race in 2004. She sure fits in with the do nothing posers there.
I think Noem as a problem. She has to get out and campaign and shouldn’t be able to control what happens at a campaign event.
She never really has had any meaningful Town Halls. Now she’ll have to answer to the Democrats who’ll come to these stops. I know I plan to be at as many as I can to ask her votes on healthcare, gun control or lack thereof. I’d ask her if she is with Trump and would be for teachers carrying guns. If she is where is the money going to come from to do this.
I look forward to the second year of the campaign. Political campaigns get better with age. Is it possible that polls will be hard to read because Jackley and Noem have been at it so long and voter burnout has set in?
I’m not convinced, Ror. If Noem has better political instincts, why didn’t she use them to walk into the tourism conference and introduce a tourism initiative, the way Jackley did? Why did she have her launch on a crappy winter day instead of in the fall like Jackley did? Why did she bobble the travel argument and open the door for him to torpedo her travel spending? And why didn’t her instincts help her raise more money than Jackley in 2017?
Cory. Didn’t Noem have a lot of money in the bank anyway? Doesn’t she have more money in the bank than Jackley?
I agree that she could have picked a better day to announce
I’m old enough to remember when gubernatorial candidates didn’t announce until the spring. Nils Boe didn’t announce until March 7. Most people at least waited until after the main run of the Legislature to make a formal announcement, although they were positioning themselves earlier. I think a lot of the problem is these people are running forever, building up staffs and paying off the right people, mainly TV stations now, with all the money they collect from out-of-state interests. If the Legislature wants to do something of value, they’ll mandate that no one can announce until March.
I believe Owen’s right. Noem spent lots of time on our buck “Dialing for Dollars” at the congressional (not on gov’t property) phone bank. At least 50% of that euchre went into her pocket – for campaigning.
Every Congresscritter is expected to put in his/her time “Begging for Bucks.”
Dog, what a system.
Owen, Bucko, true! Noem started with her big Congressional campaign fund transfer before IM 22 forbade it (ha ha!). As of year end, she had $2.1M, Jackley $1.6, Sutton $670K.
Donald, it would violate free speech rights not to let people announce early, but I’d love to get back to campaigns that start in March. Maybe I’ll just make that my personal rule (broke it this year, starting mine in February… but at least it was late February!).
Both Jackley and Noem would be horrible, dangerous governors. I’m sick at the thought of either of them occupying the governor’s mansion. But, since it looks like we’ll have to tolerate one or the other as guv, I’d have to pick Noem (gagging just writing that, never thought I would!). Jackley has proven over his terms of office that he has no problem whatsoever abusing the law for his own vindictive, radical, extremist fundagelical agenda, and causes, shall we say diplomatically, trouble for anyone daring to get in his way. He only cares about the “law’ in as far as it helps him achieve his agenda. If it’s in his way, too bad, he’ll abuse it.
He’s already used the state bar’s membership roster information to send out fundraising invitations (hubby’s an attorney, so that’s how we’re aware of it) and I believe he wouldn’t be above showing vindictiveness against those who didn’t actively support him. The state bar membership is generally much less extremist and fundageical than him, and most actually respect the law even if they don’t like it. But Jackley doesn’t care. He also is quite the racist, as he’s shown in his actions and threats against reservations and Indians, who make up fifteen percent of the state’s population. I’m white, but I live on a reservation, and there is a lot of fear here about what he would try to do against them if governor, since he’s skirted just at the edge of legality several times in his dealings with them.
Noem is, quite frankly, stupid, and is being used as a puppet for the right’s agenda. She’s even too stupid to realize that, and remains very out-of-touch with a lot of voters. But Jackley is just plain evil, and stupid is better than evil. I do believe that Jackley is, so far, doing better than she is and she’s stumbling and bumbling all over the place. I’m really surprised at whatever team she has, you’d think they’d at least recognize that even if she’s too stupid to do so. I also have to laugh at her claims of being in touch and of not wanting out of state influence. When I was in the twin cities a few months ago, there was advertising, in print and other media, for a fundraiser in Minneapolis hosted by some huge business bigwig here, who apparently also does business in Sioux Falls (can’t remember his name now). From what I understand, it was sparsely attended. As if there are a lot of people in MN who care enough about who is governor of SD to open wide with the pocketbooks.
FYI, I called Kristi’s office this week and asked WHY WHY WHY she voted in favor of gutting several provisions of the ADA last week; there was no reason for that except to kick anyone with any kind of disability in the rear, while they’re down. I asked if that was what she considered a SD value? They had no answer for that, of course, I shouldn’t have expected anything different.
Laurisa, Kristi advertised her fundraiser with the Davis cheese magnates in the Twin Cities media? That’s remarkable! You didn’t save a clipping, did you?
I agree that the GOP offers us no acceptable option. Kristi’s voting record and Marty’s AG record both tell us we need to rally behind the Democratic alternative. That’s the only way to black-eye the Republicans and give Democrats a chance to re-establish themselves in positions of power throughout the state.
Mr. Mercer hates Ms. Noem.
No surprises there.