As we lurch into the lurid carnival of Cleveland, it occurs to me that by choosing Governor Mike Pence as his running mate, Donald Trump has increased the chances that, even if he wins the Presidency, he will not serve beyond January 31, 2017.
Anti-Trump forces headed to Cleveland are having about as much success as the anti-Erdogan forces did in Turkey over the weekend. But give the Republicans time; they’ll sober up. Pence will get tired of playing Donald Trump’s interpreter, because some statements—Clinton’s bad judgment in voting for the Iraq War disqualifies from the Presidency, but Pence’s bad judgment in voting for the Iraq War does not; I’m great because I’m anti-establishment, but Pence is “very establishment… and that’s not a bad thing“—interpret as gibberish. Spanning the Trump–Pence worldview gap will exhaust Pence and his party (especially given that Trump doesn’t really have a worldview as much as a view of himself as all that matters in the world). If they can somehow hobble to victory in November (this morning’s Real Clear Politics average: Clinton leading six of eight polls, average lead of 3.2), Republicans will recognize the danger to national security and global stability a President Trump presents. They will recognize that next in line for power is a reliable, experienced (six terms in Congress, one term as Governor), genuine conservative Republican.
And on January 21, urged quietly on by party leaders and Vice-President Pence, the GOP-controlled House will impeach President Trump. On what grounds? Don’t worry, they’ll find something. Remember, we have “loose morals and intemperate habits” as precedent.
Senate Democrats (likely not a majority if Trump wins the general election, but still necessary to secure the two-thirds majority for conviction) will ask, “What’s in this for us? Why should we vote to trade President Trump for President Pence?” Vice-President Trump and the GOP leadership will quietly persuade the Democrats that Trump will destroy the Constitution and the country. Vice-President Pence, motivated by the same fear but also by a keen desire to take the only path to the Presidency available to him, will also offer the Democrats some key policy concessions—maybe no Planned Parenthood defunding or Affordable Care Act repeal.
The combination of Trump’s obvious unfitness and Pence’s willingness to deal will drive the Senate to convict Donald Trump, remove him from office, and raise Mike Pence to the Presidency.
Never-Trumpers, it would be a lot easier for you all to simply vote for Clinton. It might even be easier to just buy the Electoral College. But if you insist on voting Republican, the impeachment gambit and President Pence is your last route to sanity and American stability.
Democrats would not be quick to impeach a President Trump. Doing so would open them to charges of dirty politics and would cause damage to the Democratic Party. On the other hand, President Trump would be the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party’s prospects up and down the ticket for his entire term.
In the unlikely event he could win the Presidency, Trump would have to seriously imperil world peace before the House would impeach him and the Senate would convict him. It would probably take at least 2 months for that to happen – not the first 2 weeks.
The damage would be a wash, painting Democrats and Republicans. Working together could go the other way, a first great bipartisan act in restoring functionality to Congress.
It won’t take two months of imperiling world peace. The House can find reason on Day 1, probably in Trump’s inaugural address and comments and behavior at the inaugural balls.
There isn’t a crime invented that Drumpf could commit that would rise to the level of impeachable offense. Wingnuts gave dumbass dubya a clean pass for being a mass murdering war criminal and outing a covert CIA agent-among other things.
Then they wanted to impeach Obama for being an uppity black and HRC because they know she has committed some crime/any crime even though they can’t indict and convict her.
Wingnuts were sore that the Dem part of bi=partisan impeachment charges against Nixon drove wingnuts to throw every scurrilous charge at both Clintons in order to impeach Bill for lying about sex.
Ror, after 8 years of republican obstruction, Democrats will not only hate Trump, but they could continue the obstructionism. What do they have to lose?
There looks to be more news outside the Cleveland convention than in, many of the headlines are as much about who is not attending and why as who is attending.
Of course there will be protesters taking to the streets from BLM and other liberals to protest Trump’s nomination.
Maybe Cory is right about Trump’s impeachment, but I think a more likely scenario is Trump being driven from office by public rebellion, not only by members of his own party. but by a outraged public.
Trump just polled 0% among African-Americans in polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania. That is right, statistically speaking, he doesn’t get any black support. Hillary had 88% and 91% respectively.
I’m thinking the Congressional Black Caucus is voting in favor of impeachment.
How can that be, Darin? According to Drumpf Blacks,women, Latinos and just about everybody else loves Drumpf.
Pence was the gov in Indiana when he started to get his people to stop trump at all costs by all voting for Cruz. now he says that Trump is the one.
Never studied Hitler much, but wasn’t there something similar to this Convention Revolt with Hitler and the election for Chancellor?
Have always feared that the Hitler Playbook could work here.
Lurid carnival, indeed. I’m wondering how Trump will come in on Wednesday night (is that when he’s scheduled to accept?) How will he out-do the egomania of his entrance in the blue fog of Monday night? And why was it blue? I guess red would not do. Will he come in on a Cleopatra-style litter carried by four strong, strapping Nubian servants? Probably not. Might be over the top. But with Trump, everything has to be over the top to cover up the sad reality. Can’t wait.
I was just reviewing Reagan’s shining city on a hill speech as Senator Kevin McCarthy was mentioning Reagan’s famous speech. I wanted to compare the tact that Trump is taking compared to Reagan. But what popped out of the speech for me at the beginning were these words by Reagan:
“It was a year ago this coming February when this country had its spirits lifted as they have never been lifted in many years. This happened when planes began landing on American soil and in the Philippines, bringing back men who had lived with honor for many miserable years in North Vietnam prisons. Three of those men are here tonight, John McCain, Bill Lawrence and Ed Martin. It is an honor to be here tonight. I am proud that you asked me and I feel more than a little humble in the presence of this distinguished company.”
The Republicans have gone from a leader of their party who recognized the bravery, heroism and sacrifice of John McCain and POW’s like him to a leader who calls POW’s and John McCain a loser. How the mighty have fallen!
Bob Schieffer and I are on the same wavelength tonight apparently. He first noted that the speakers tonight were attacking Hillary more than they were mentioning Trump. He said “if there was anything she was not accused of, I missed it.” The crowd chanting “Lock her up” was a nice classy touch as Chris Christie played mock prosecutor in front of the impaneled jury of lunatics at the convention. I was reminded of the spectacle of the Colosseum in Roman times.
Next, Schieffer noted that “American campaigns are usually won by the most optimistic candidate.” Ronald Reagan was cited as an example of this and they were comparing Reagan to Trump. I was thinking along the same lines when I was looking into Reagan’s oft cited “shining city on a hill” speech which revealed the John McCain reference.
Schieffer and I both think it is going to be a hard-sell to portray Trump in the Reagan mold. For me, Trump is not about optimism. He is about pessimism and fear mongering and hate. Even his slogan, Make America Great Again implies that America is not great now. Trump constantly emphasizes the bad and hardly mentions the good. Trump sows fear of immigrants where Reagan and Bush actually debated in 1980 over who was more progressive towards immigrants. Trump attacks people personally as his first instinct. Reagan and Tip O’Neill had beers together, though they differed on policy. I could go on because the differences are innumerable, but you get the picture and you already knew this: Trump is no Reagan.
Oh, Robin, if Trump has come out in red fog, he’d have looked like Lucifer emerging from Hell, and then Ben Carson would have been all over him:
http://www.salon.com/2016/07/20/ben_carson_plays_the_lucifer_card_strange_attack_on_hillary_leaves_heads_shaking_at_rnc/
Good points about McCain and Reagan, Darin. Could we say that the difference between Reagan’s optimism and Trump’s exhortations to Make America Great Again is that Reagan expressed his optimism in terms of faith in regular Americans while Trump, when he’s not vilifying everyone else, grounds his optimism solely in his personal deal-making awesomeness?
Cory, I think you have captured the essence of the difference between Reagan and Trump. Reagan’s faith was in America and Trump’s faith is in himself.
Eric Trump talking about his dad, The Donald:
“He wants to make our country safe again.
He wants to make our country rich again.
He wants to rebuild our infrastructure.
He wants to rebuild our military.
He wants to fix education that’s totally failing the most precious generations that we have which are the youngest generation.
He wants to fix this country.”
I see the brilliant strategy here. You don’t actually need a plan or any ideas on how to get things done. You just name off stuff that you want to do. That’s really the hardest part, ya know–naming off the stuff you want to do. That’s what people say–the hardest part of any task is getting started and Trump’s already started by naming things that he wants.
Eric Trump went on to say that his “[dad] is the epitome of the American dream.”
Yes, if the American dream is to be born into a couple hundred million dollar empire, declare bankruptcy frequently, marry, divorce, marry, divorce, marry, treat elected officials like prostitutes, and involve yourself in thousands of lawsuits, then I would agree that Trump is the epitome of the American dream.
Cory, I think there was another vote for impeachment sown up tonight.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/20/politics/ted-cruz-republican-convention-moment/index.html
Ted Cruz rebuking Trump the way he was a sight to behold, even better was watching Trump stomp into the arena to take back control.
Kudo’s to Cruz.
I wonder: maybe Ted would vote not to impeach to keep Trump in and make it easier for him to challenge the sitting President in 2020.