The British are Leaving! The British are Leaving!
Great Britain voted yesterday to leave the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron, who argued hard for Britain to remain, is resigning. World stock markets are dropping, along with the pound and the euro and maybe Britain’s credit rating.
The analogy between the U.K.’s seeming tribalist retreat and American Trumpism is imperfect, and I don’t like to look to Wall Street for my cues. But if pulling out the wires from the global economy and international relations excites you, the “Brexit” vote gives us a taste of what electing Donald Trump the President of the United States would do to the world economy.
Speaking of pulling out wires, consider this economic impact of Donald Trump’s anti-world policy: Marketplace estimates that banning Muslims from entering the United States would knock $24 billion out of the U.S. economy in tourism and education spending. That does not include the cost of betraying our ideals, losing the world’s confidence, and seeing lots of international companies treat the U.S. the way PayPal, Deutsche Bank, and Bruce Springsteen have treated North Carolina for state-sponsored discrimination.
If the Brexit vote can upset the economy, just try President Trump.
Cory, I am not surprised to see you support the crony capitalists on Wall Street. I am also not surprised that you turned your back on democracy by not respecting the vote in Britain and the people’s effort to take their country away from the global economic elites.
It’s possible the mass movement of people and related fears was the tipping point, and we can look back to the U.S. as the cause for the instability that created it. EU member countries feel subservient to Brussels on immigration policy. Scotland wanted to stay by 60/40 and may have a resolution to leave the UK to stay in the EU (possibly Ireland too) because they benefit financially, but other countries like Sweden may follow Britain. We never learn to mind our own business. We’re meddlers. Thousands of refugees are coming to Europe every day. It’s unsustainable. They need stability back in their home countries very soon. Whatever the U.S. allows is really just a token to ease our guilt not addressing the real problem that further multinational action is probably necessary.
Sibby, you know full well that I do not support crony capitalism. You know full well that I intend to go to Pierre as District 3 Senator to root out the crony capitalism that has made South Dakota government so corrupt.
But we’re talking here about a different sort of chaos wrought not just by doing what the crony capitalists want but uprooted basic elements of the current global economy, like the free trade and fair immigration on which South Dakota agriculture depends.
How did I know somebody in the comments section would infantilize the people of the UK by blaming their xenophobia on the US?
Every country has got to control it’s boarders. It was our lack of respect to others that got us here. Pinning our hopes on Hillary with a divided congress is precarious but she’s all we got, though she probably has a more reasoned outlook than Obama, the junior Senator we thought we should hand over the reigns to. Dumb of us. Obama voters (including myself) are partially to blame.
I… what?
I’m stickin with if the U.S. had never invaded Iraq (Bush), then left too quickly creating a vacuum (Obama), mass refugees wouldn’t have left their home countries because of ISIS and sectarian violence. It’s not xenophobia Britain is watching Germany accept mass numbers of refugees, the terrorism, it’s a natural and sensible reaction to pull back. Can’t blame the British people for not wanting to give the right to Brussels to make their own decisions. That’s a similar place to where we are and why Trump has such popularity, though the Remain/Leave debate wasn’t anything like Trump.
And Saddam likely would have never come to power, and gassed thousands of innocent Kurds as a result, if UN sanctions hadn’t allowed him to nationalize insolvent banks and cement his grip on the Iraqi oil industry. You see how we can just kick the can down the street indefinitely? At some point, a nation has to accept some responsibility for its own behavior.
Populism was the reason for the exit. While the elite of the UK benefited greatly from the EU, it did not transcend to the people. The people had to live with growing concerns about infrastructure and their healthcare and they voted for change. When and if Clinton wins the brass ring, it will be a short 4 years without a congress. At that point, the republicans will point out the stagnant economy (that they created) and put the blame squarely on Clinton just like they did with Carter. Austerity never wins for the people, but it does for the elite.
Look for Catalonia, Scotland, Sweden, and Ireland to be the next to have referendums, maybe even on NATO.
This is gonna be interesting. Seems like a dog chasing a car. OK, he catches it! Now what???? Didn’t quite think the whole thing thru, just gut reaction.
I mean, there’s also the lies. How about the claim that leaving the EU would free up 350 million pound for NHS, a claim which has been proven over and over again to be utter horses—? Or the “dey took er jerbs” stance on immigration which is apparently the sole property of hillbilly neckbeards in the US but logical and sound when English isolationists start waltzing with it? Hell, even the most adamant Brexit supporting economists have said EU membership has, at worst, had a negligible effect on the UK economy, with most admitting the opening of trade benefitting the Brits, which in 2013, became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies (Italy, Germany, France) for the first time since 1965.
Yay populism. Go populism. SANDERS, TRUMP. SANDERS, TRUMP.
European Union will be gone in 5 years.
The Brexit vote showed us, yet again, how bad Obama is on foreign policy. When he went over there this spring and told them they were going to the back of the line in trade with the U.S. if they dared to leave, that proved to be a turning point in the leave campaign. There is nothing more effective in galvanizing support than having a foreign president tell your supporters that you cannot do something that is within your legal right. Obama’s meddling has made this possible. Congratulations, Obama.
This is worth an hour of time and will quickly illustrate why people here voted out: https://youtu.be/UTMxfAkxfQ0
Buckle up everyone. I expect the iron hand of control and enormous pressure on remaining EU countries to stay and retribution punishment on the UK for this decision. Central Bankers, and elites in Brussels (unelected, unaccountable, unknown and all powerful) will do all they can to make the little people pay for their independence. It’s nuts to me that fishing companies from other nations can fish a couple miles off the Scotland coast here and Scottish fisherman can’t fish these waters and Scottish fishermen are being paid by the EU to burn their boats. That is nutso. It’s as nutso as our government paying our farmers to not farm their land.
Spencer literally just pulled a thanks Obama for Brexit. Let’s allow that to settle for a bit. Why do people hate nuance so much?
Interestingly enough both Scotland and Northern Ireland are both looking to leave the United Kingdom. The vote in both of those areas was overwhelming to stay in the EU. Look for a potential Ireland reunification and a vote from Scotland to leave the UK here in the next year.
@Spencer you may want to look at those numbers and do some research on the areas that voted to leave. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887
“Central Bankers, and elites in Brussels (unelected, unaccountable, unknown and all powerful) will do all they can to make the little people pay for their independence.”
See that Cory. Your position is in support of the crony capitalist and against the common people. Yes to get elected as a Democrat, you have to say you are against crony capitalism, just like the Republicans have to say they are against tax and spend liberalism to get elected. But when either get to Pierre, they support the public/private partnership agenda which is the very foundation to crony capitalism, and is funded by tax and spend policies.
While I agree Scotland exiting the UK seems more likely, I have to wonder if plummeting crude prices may cause them to pause. They were nervous about it when crude was hovering around $100 a barrel, and now we’re sub $50.
I don’t understand Dicta’s position. What countries should be responsible for their behavior? Iraq for not taking care of their own security? If Brussels has so much control over member countries how can they? A shared currency? Attempts at such closeness between countries with different interests was doomed to fail. It could fall apart quickly now or be reduced to just those who feel they benefit the most, the takers. Britain will be fine “on its own.” Easy to see why the vote went this way.
Britain will be fine “on its own.”
The problem is with the EU. Can they do it without Britain?
Donnie Drumpf congratulated Scotland for taking their country back. Except, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in EU. Another swing and a miss.
@Lost in Iowa: Trump was congratulating Great Britain. Trump’s statement:
“Statement Regarding British Referendum on E.U. Membership
The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples. They have declared their independence from the European Union, and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy.”
Last time I checked Scotland was still part of the United Kingdom although they did vot to remain in the EU. However the Scots refused in their own referendum to leave Great Britain. Perhaps they now regret that decision.
I really couldn’t decide whether to post his youtube on this blog or the one about Mercer’s choking over Daugaard’s comments about the Supreme Court decision on Obama’s immigration policy.
John Oliver, enjoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8&feature=youtu.be
Trapped Coyote-
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!
4:21 AM – 24 Jun 2016
It is still not too late to nominate anyone but Hillary. If we truly want to stop the “Brexit-Trump Express,” then it is time for the “Palace Guard” super delegates to take notice and help nominate an authentic nominee and not a “New Democrat” from the 1990s, who helped to usher in the trade and banking policies of the last twenty years, which have lead to a greater collapse of the American middle class…. It is not too late, but the clock is ticking…. both for the middle class and the ability for the Democrats to hold on the White House beyond 2016……
@Mostly Foggy in Iowa: No matter how many bowls of Cheerios™ you pee in, until the Scots secede from the United Kingdom they are still Brits to which the Trumpster is referring.
Howling Coyote – Go tell a Scot he’s a Brit and see how friendly he is to the idea. It’s about like calling a coyote a rabbit.
happy camper – I believe Dicta’s comment had more to do with kicking the can down the road to the ultimate first kick. In the case of all things Middle Eastern, that would be to point at which France and the Brits divided up hitherto unorganized territory into make-believe countries for purposes of looting the spoils via colonization post WW1.
I.E., in case you don’t get it – the chaos in the Middle East is due to British intervention and greed when you follow the bread crumb trail all the way to the first crumb. If they are afraid of being invaded by Foreigners – they only need to look so far as their own Imperialist ambitions to find the who opened the garden gate.
Well hey, it looks like somebody gets me.
Although I’d also note that the big problem I was trying to draw out is infinite regression: people tend to stop on the point that blames the party they’d most like blamed.
Roadkill Coyote-show me the word Brits in the tweet from Drumpf. Know what? It ain’t in there because he was not addressing the Brits.
How many times has your road kill head been run over?
Except I blamed both parties, Bush more so cause he went in there. I do get there’s a lot of bad history (you can go back forever on that), but we are in the here and now, so what do we do? All the refugees cannot continue to go to Europe and be absorbed, and as another commenter said elsewhere, Merkel’s policies of letting in so many refugees, many coming for economic reasons from other countries, scared the Brits, easily 2 percent. Some intervention will be necessary in the middle east so these people can go home, and stop coming.
To suggest British people alive today shouldn’t be able to control their boarders because of what their forefathers did is absurd, other than their politicians were right there with us supporting bad policy in Iraq.
This is one reason why Libertarians makes sense. They respect boarders.
Hey Mike where’s my applesauce???
worst case scenario, the world economy is worse than ours, the markets get jittery over Brexit, the markets get worse when Trump becomes pres and the whole bubble bursts again, and Trump is broke by time he is finished being pres. I do have hope for more than this but anything can happen.
The other side of this is, companies do business with eachother and Britains economy shifts but no big up or down since they still have the same companies doing business with mostly the same people and this all just blows over when people get accustomed to this. And life goes on almost like before.
Roger E.
Agreed Roger, life will go on and England will survive after some time.
It is probably a good thing that this all happened on a Friday so that everyone will at least have a couple of days to recover.
Drumpf’s big speech in Scotland was interrupted by news media because Drumpf droned on and on about his golf course and the suites in the lighthouse. Another commercial about Drumpf.
But Mike, maybe Trump likes applesauce too. This blog has a huge agenda and that’s fine by you since you agree with it. That’s opinion.
1. a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.
2. a personal view, attitude, or appraisal.
Britain’s been a two-bit power punching well above its weight and circling the drain since its peak coal of 1913. She was lucky for about 200 years in developing a naval skill – long after the sailing Vikings ran rough-shod over the place. 70 years ago Orwell penned the fundamental tribal British character flaw – the same flaw which led to the Brexit. Britain is toast. And yes, it could happen here. The US is also very tribal, introspective, nationalistic, and superstitious.
http://www.businessinsider.com/george-orwell-on-brexit-2016-6
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/24/ian-bremmers-take-on-the-early-brexit-winners-and-losers-commentary.html
@John:
Really? When Churchill was ready to declare war if Japan attacked the US, you are ready to throw Britain under the bus?
Weren’t the British troops first in line to support us in Korea?
When the Persian Gulf War happened didn’t the British have our backs with their armor and blood?
After 9/11 didn’t the Brits help us beat back the Taliban in Afghanistan?
Britain is one of the largest foreign investors in our economy. Why should we slight our most faithful ally and treat them as an enemy? We should be running to Britain’s defense … now.
Britain is our ally, our friend and our mother. Shame on you.
Happy Stumper, I think you have a thing for squirrels, Amirite?
The UK, for now, reminds me of when I was a young man and had to much to drink. I would do and say things that come the next morning, I would regret. That hangover is coming them right now. The EU was a lot of things, but one of the most important was peace. Without the EU, it will not be too long before we are on the warpath once again. History does have a way of repeating itself. In fact, we could not even name the last big one so we simply put a number behind it. The first one was the war to end all wars, that did not work out so good, so hence, the numbers game.
The cracks begin for Merry ole England, we are seeing an amazing thing. Where is Oliver Cromwell, looks like his has been reincarnated with Boris. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030
England has two years to reconsider. Scotland is not bound to leave EU. They can vote for independence and negotiate their own place in EU.
Don – no shame, merely the truth through the writings of Orwell, Churchill, and history. The truth is the Brits need us; we do not need the Brits. Orwell laid open the British national systemic character flaw, referenced above. The Brits bled themselves white in 2 world wars. Then when they tried imposing their will on Egypt in the Suez Crisis – President Eisenhower told them to back off whispering in their ear that if they didn’t knock off their 17th century colonial crap that the US would call the WWI and WWII loans. The Brits’ neutered bulldog folded.
The modern British army barely won the Falklands War, and now has fewer helicopters than are in an American division. Churchill wrote in September 19, 1922, “I am deeply concerned about Iraq …. I think we should now put definitely, not only to Feisal but to the Constituent Assembly, the position that unless they beg us to stay and to stay on our own terms in regard to efficient control, we shall actually evacuate before the close of the financial year. I would put this issue in the most brutal way, and if they are not prepared to urge us to stay and to co-operate in every manner I would actually clear out….. At present we are paying eight millions a year for the privilege of living on an ungrateful volcano out of which we are in no circumstances to get anything worth having.” Read, Churchill’s Folly, How Winston Churchill Created Modern Iraq. Obviously, the US learned nothing from Churchill’s Folly. As for Afghanistan, reflect on the “success” of William Brydon and the “Remnants of an Army”. The British, and our, learning curves appear as flat as we embark on our “forever war”. Certainly Churchill requited himself with his steadfastness in World War 2; yet the voters flushed him postwar – demanding the social contract after decades of suffering.
Recall also there are dozens of settlements in New Mexico, Florida, et al., pre-dating British settlement in their North American colony. Frankly, the US apologists for Britain likely are Tory sympathizers whom find more in common with Benjamin Franklin’s Tory son than with founding father Ben Franklin. And no, to the best of my knowledge, I have no British blood, and if I should, then I disown Jane – so she is not my “mother” or my great, great, great grandmother.
CH,
Normally, I just disagree with your conclusion but find your logic good. Your attempt to link the elites reaction to Brexit (initially a moniker of derision of the effort to leave the EU but was accepted as a badge by the proponents) and the impact of Trump policies is ludicrous.
It is what it is- the people of Britain discerned unity across the channel no longer in their self-interest. I think they might be right. Whether it serves the broader interest (you and Sibby have fundamentally different perspectives), Britain’s interest could very well have been served.
Like Redstate repubs – the rural Brits, too, stubbornly vote against their interest.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/25/after-residents-voted-for-brexit-this-british-county-realized-the-e-u-might-stop-sending-them-money/
Wish this headline read, “Little Britain” as a hat-tip to the nastily funny comedy. The saddest part of the Brexit vote is the war the old pulled on the future of the young. The vote was 75% to remain. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/great-britain-reckons-with-possible-future-as-little-england/2016/06/25/4563ffee-3ae1-11e6-af02-1df55f0c77ff_story.html
The youth vote was 75% to remain.
Meanwhile, more than 2 million people have signed a petition on the UK Parliament’s website demanding a second referendum on whether to leave the EU.
At one point, the website crashed after being unable to deal with the surge of traffic.
By law, all petitions to the site that receive more than 100,000 signatures must be considered for debate in Parliament.
Spencer, you read too much Breitbart. President Obama did not tell opponents they had no legal right to leave the EU. He responded to Brexit advocates’ claims that Great Britain could easily and swiftly negotiate a separate trade deal with the U.S. by noting that current U.S. policy will be to finalize the already percolating TTIP with the EU first. That’s not a failure of U.S. foreign policy; that’s just a choice made by the British given full information from an ally about the consequences.
The results are in from the vote in Spain. The right wing Popular Party, of which the current leader, Mariano Rajoy is leader of, won another 8 votes more. This gives them a commanding lead. Still not enough to do anything with so there may well be another vote soon. What could change is that the Socialist Party could form an alliance with another party to have enough members to form a government.
Why is this important? The results today show that Spaniards did not vote. They simply stayed home and the results are the lowest number of voters since the dictatorship of Franco ended and democracy was born there. We see the same in the UK with people voting for a slogan rather than even knowing what Brexit meant. Trump sure as hell did not know what it meant and he has business interests in the UK. Citizens of the world are tired of the same old piece of crust, they want change and they do not give a crap who gives it to them. They think that there is no difference between the right and the left as the left forgot about the working people a long time ago. Not just here, but world wide. As you read history, think of Sarajevo and what happened with nationalism after those pistol shots were fired on the mark. In the United States, we have an avowed fascist that is polling neck and neck with someone who is a career politico, what could go wrong?
Brits fear of Islamification easily pushed these numbers over the top. Dave Rubin recently interviewed Tommy Robinson who gets demonized in the press, but if you listen to what he has to say, you’ll understand why they voted as they did. Rubin does a lot of great interviews challenging people to think and debate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQOkrwJXRFQ
The British Empire is much the same as the American Empire when it comes to Islam. Two of the most powerful countries in the world and a few hundred boneheads with dull knives brings out the fear, so much so, that we would loose our freedoms and loose our own identity. If we do not get a grip on who the hell we are, we could easily fall into that same kind of voodoo politics. Have you noticed that Boris and Trump go to the same hair stylist? Boris will be the new leader of what will be left of the UK, it ain’t gonna be pretty.
Michael Sherman (Skeptic Magazine) explains it by saying we (humans) are highly moralist desiring a simple right and wrong and needing a cause to make things right, which requires the anti-cause who is preventing the utopia we think is possible. Moral high ground in place allows us to create the other, those bad guys and do almost anything. That’s how he explains Trump, earlier fascism and religion.