A new Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy poll on the Republican gubernatorial primary sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy finds Congressman Dusty Johnson pulling ahead and Governor Larry Rhoden stuck in a statistical tie with Speaker Jon Hansen and loudmouth rich guy Toby Doeden. Set next to the last big poll, from Emerson College Polling last month, the SDNW/Chiesman poll shows undecideds jumping to Johnson’s ship while Rhoden remains in his embarrassing dead heat with guys who ought to be in single digits.
Why can’t Governor Larry Rhoden turn incumbency into a lead? Reason #1 is that Congressman Dusty Johnson is a smart, enthusiastic candidate whom everybody knows and likes.
Reason #2 or #3 may be that Rhoden remains hitched to Kristi Noem’s broken wagon:
Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, said Rhoden’s association with his predecessor, former Gov. Kristi Noem, could be behind the drop in poll numbers.
“He has aligned himself closely with Noem. They worked closely together, and he continues to champion her and stand by her,” she said. “There’s a potential that has been a side effect” [Alexander Rifaat, “Poll: Johnson Widens Lead in SD GOP Governor Race,” South Dakota News Watch, 2026.04.20].
Hellwege’s point is supported by this same poll’s finding that Noem’s captivation of the home crowd is over:
Roughly 3 in 4 South Dakotans approve of President Donald Trump’s decision to sack former Gov. Kristi Noem from her role as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, according to a new poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota.
The survey of 500 registered voters across party affiliation conducted April 7-9 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, found 76% of respondents agreed with Trump’s move, while 59% of South Dakotans disapproved of her performance as head of the DHS. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.5%.
…Brad Coker, founder of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, ranked as one of the least-biased and most-factual pollsters, also pointed out that support for Noem was dropping prior to her role at DHS, citing revelations in her 2024 memoir that she shot and killed her dog because, as she put it, it was “untrainable.”
“I think she was already starting to slip. Trump gave her a lifeline, and she wasn’t able to hold on to the lifeline,” Coker said. “Republicans have dogs too. It wasn’t something that just offended the left” [Alexander Rifaat, “Poll: Most South Dakotans Approve of Trump’s Firing of Noem,” South Dakota News Watch, 2026.04.21].
Approval of Noem’s firing is above 70% in every demographic slice covered in the poll—sex, age, region, and party. The 71% of Republicans saying good riddance to Noem may not be showing an outburst of critical thinking; they may just be choosing fealty to an even bigger cosmetically enhanced megalomaniac:
Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, was not surprised by Noem’s approval numbers given, in addition to her being heavily disliked by Democrats, Republicans tend to validate decisions made by President Trump.
“This is somewhat expected in the aftermath of her termination, which was praised by both liberal opponents and then of course Trump supporters who would support his decision,” Hellwege told News Watch [Rifaat, 2026.04.21].
The only other time Larry Rhoden appeared on a statewide primary ballot was 2014, when he ran for U.S. Senate in a field of five. Rhoden finished a distant second at 18.2% behind better-known and better-liked Mike Rounds. He barely beat louder darkhorse and fellow State Senator Stace Nelson. 12 years later, after six years as Lieutenant Governor and one year as Governor, Rhoden should be polling better. I find it hard to believe he could finish below 20% again, but the Emerson and Mason-Dixon polls suggest I may have to revise my prediction for the GOP gubernatorial primary: Johnson remains in the 40s with a clear win, just like the 2018 primary that launched him to Congress over two challengers fighting for right-wing scraps, but Rhoden’s looking like he will barely break 20% and barely beat Hansen for second place.
Dusty, I’ll vote for you if you condemn Trump’s war machine, tariffs, human rights violations, unscientific quackery, and general bafoonery. If not I’ll assume you support his nonsense.
sx123, forget rhetoric, Dusty voted three days ago against a War Powers Act to reel in Trump’s “excursion.”
“Congressman Dusty Johnson is a smart, enthusiastic candidate whom everybody knows and likes.”
Please do NOT include me in that “everybody” category. I wrote an email to that political worm. I don’t even remember the issue, but I wanted him to know that NOT every constituent agreed with his views. I was polite, used, the king’s english, but I do remember I asked him to come out from under his desk and SAY SOMETHING! Next time I tried to send an email, I was blocked, told to contact his office if I needed something. I put in a different address to see if that made a difference. Ta Da! Went right thru. I was being blocked for not agreeing with him. Worm is the kindest description you weill get from me.
@O I know :) and am calling him out. It’s embarrassing and shameful any South Dakotan would, at this point (if not before), be associated with this White House at all, regardless of political affiliation. Apparently basic decency doesn’t matter anymore.
Dusty is a rino. The best you can hope for. He’ll be free to do what he wants.
Smart and enthusiastic is not a quality that gets me to vote for anyone. Let’s give someone the benefit of the doubt that they could be smart and enthusiastic about selling out the state to the technological bamboozlers pushing data centers and nuclear power plants to power them. They could be Albert Einstein smart and as enthusiastic as Richard Simmons, but dead wrong. And the problem is some of the smart guys think they are smarter than the collective wisdom of the public they are supposed to serve. Smart, maybe, but arrogant bastards, for sure.
Covernor Janklow was smart and enthusiatic. He attempted to foist a huge nuclear waste dump on South Dakota. The collective wisdom of South Dakotans said, “Oh, no you aren’t.”
I know Dusty is smart, but he’s been in the back pocket of most of the special interests who thought the carbon pipeline was a great project, who support the cancerous growth of data centers and who will force poisonous nuclear power on citizens against their will. Unless he’s willing to change his positions on many of these sorts of issues, I’ll vote for the dumb guys any day.
Who will vote to approve the ridiculous $1.5T Musk, Bezos, Thiel and MIC welfare defense spending bill?
I already know the answer, but let’s see if anyone from South Dakota has the onions to say no to this bs.
Why anyone wants to live in Pierre remains a mystery.
I wonder how Rhoden would be doing if he had called for an investigation into Noem’s spending of state dollars while running for a spot in the national spotlight? My guess is he would be much closer to Dusty in the polls and the other 2 would be lower in the polls.
Being your own person, rather than a pawn of someone else, is much smarter IMO.
Loren, my BFF calls Dusty a weasel and I call him Howdy Doody, but worm is very fitting.
Mr. Pay, one wonders if another one sat down with Mr. Brich before he croaks and got all the radioactive dirt on this it might not be a good idea and then write it down on paper so it is not lost.