A new Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy poll on the Republican gubernatorial primary sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy finds Congressman Dusty Johnson pulling ahead and Governor Larry Rhoden stuck in a statistical tie with Speaker Jon Hansen and loudmouth rich guy Toby Doeden. Set next to the last big poll, from Emerson College Polling last month, the SDNW/Chiesman poll shows undecideds jumping to Johnson’s ship while Rhoden remains in his embarrassing dead heat with guys who ought to be in single digits.
Why can’t Governor Larry Rhoden turn incumbency into a lead? Reason #1 is that Congressman Dusty Johnson is a smart, enthusiastic candidate whom everybody knows and likes.
Reason #2 or #3 may be that Rhoden remains hitched to Kristi Noem’s broken wagon:
Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, said Rhoden’s association with his predecessor, former Gov. Kristi Noem, could be behind the drop in poll numbers.
“He has aligned himself closely with Noem. They worked closely together, and he continues to champion her and stand by her,” she said. “There’s a potential that has been a side effect” [Alexander Rifaat, “Poll: Johnson Widens Lead in SD GOP Governor Race,” South Dakota News Watch, 2026.04.20].
Hellwege’s point is supported by this same poll’s finding that Noem’s captivation of the home crowd is over:
Roughly 3 in 4 South Dakotans approve of President Donald Trump’s decision to sack former Gov. Kristi Noem from her role as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, according to a new poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota.
The survey of 500 registered voters across party affiliation conducted April 7-9 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, found 76% of respondents agreed with Trump’s move, while 59% of South Dakotans disapproved of her performance as head of the DHS. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.5%.
…Brad Coker, founder of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, ranked as one of the least-biased and most-factual pollsters, also pointed out that support for Noem was dropping prior to her role at DHS, citing revelations in her 2024 memoir that she shot and killed her dog because, as she put it, it was “untrainable.”
“I think she was already starting to slip. Trump gave her a lifeline, and she wasn’t able to hold on to the lifeline,” Coker said. “Republicans have dogs too. It wasn’t something that just offended the left” [Alexander Rifaat, “Poll: Most South Dakotans Approve of Trump’s Firing of Noem,” South Dakota News Watch, 2026.04.21].
Approval of Noem’s firing is above 70% in every demographic slice covered in the poll—sex, age, region, and party. The 71% of Republicans saying good riddance to Noem may not be showing an outburst of critical thinking; they may just be choosing fealty to an even bigger cosmetically enhanced megalomaniac:
Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, was not surprised by Noem’s approval numbers given, in addition to her being heavily disliked by Democrats, Republicans tend to validate decisions made by President Trump.
“This is somewhat expected in the aftermath of her termination, which was praised by both liberal opponents and then of course Trump supporters who would support his decision,” Hellwege told News Watch [Rifaat, 2026.04.21].
The only other time Larry Rhoden appeared on a statewide primary ballot was 2014, when he ran for U.S. Senate in a field of five. Rhoden finished a distant second at 18.2% behind better-known and better-liked Mike Rounds. He barely beat louder darkhorse and fellow State Senator Stace Nelson. 12 years later, after six years as Lieutenant Governor and one year as Governor, Rhoden should be polling better. I find it hard to believe he could finish below 20% again, but the Emerson and Mason-Dixon polls suggest I may have to revise my prediction for the GOP gubernatorial primary: Johnson remains in the 40s with a clear win, just like the 2018 primary that launched him to Congress over two challengers fighting for right-wing scraps, but Rhoden’s looking like he will barely break 20% and barely beat Hansen for second place.